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Originally posted by spikefader
...Are you still short this one LYE?
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Good news for me...Are you still short this one LYE?
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VPHM short?... NO WAY.
HECK NO man!!!! I've been out of VPHM for a while now, lost money shorting it too. I'm short nothing right now.... but I'm lookin seriously at a few (VPHM ain't on the list.... I'm skeered to short that stock!) BTW.... VPHM never showed up on any short searches I ran, I just "decided" it was a good short on my own, (STUPID AGAIN!!!).... There were so many really good shorts I could have been in (and I had identified) but I didn't pull the trigger. I missed some good short gains last week too by being too slow to change my (short term) bias.Originally posted by dmk112Good news for me...Are you still short this one LYE?
I will be playing a (POTW) pick short this week but I'm gonna actually take a real position Monday sometime to make sure shares are available to short. I'll post right after I have entered the short position.BEEF!... it's whats for dinner!Comment
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I am a new member of this site and I really appreciate the details and hard work that's put into some of these threads! I hope to be a contributor in the future once my trading knowledge and experience catch up to the rest of youOriginally posted by spikefader
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I did have some questions for Spike (who is definitely a genius with charts from what I have seen!) regarding your VPHM find. The stock lasted traded at $20.06 on Friday. Are you recommending to buy it if it falls to $19.98?
If so, would you then recommend entering a stop loss at a certain percentage?
How do you recommend trading the option and protecting yourself for that?
Do you use a wider stop range for it so you don't get whip-sawed? What sort of price would be a good entry?
Thanks in advance!!!Comment
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Hey kc14526.
Welcome to the thread and forum. Thanks for the feedback and looking forward to reading your posts.
No doubt you're doing this, but glance over as much of this thread as you need to get up to speed on terminology and methodology. I really should do a glossary, definitions, example charts.......that might make it easier for new readers....
But anyway, VPHM yep, I think is worth a long from the intraday pivot tomorrow at 19.98 (goes without saying do your own due dil of course). I am a huge believer in stops, and I encourage everyone to use them. So immediate 4% stop loss goes in, and that way your r/r is still within acceptable limits. I'd also recommend stop to even once it gets to +5%
I'll post VPHM intraday charts when I can. I won't be bidding the pivot but I'll be watching it. I want to try for 2% risk, and that means being patient. But price action may dictate that I expose myself to 4%....and that would be OK.
For the call option, I'm going to watch the +DUZADs tomorrow and look at volume and how they trade, i.e. price action relative to the stock price. I can post a chart if you like. If volume is too low or if it doesn't track too well, I'll pass on it completely. The last thing I want is a low volume option that doesn't move in line with the stock. Even the high volume ones like GOOG recently you'll note that being close to expiry meant they weren't being bid up in line with the stock, even despite a breakout in the stock, at least not until a convincing bull move by the stock....then the calls popped nicely. But that's a good example of options being tricky. Low volume and low volatile options only make it worse, and they are to be avoided. And sometimes it takes a few days of watching the chart (I mean the option chart) before you feel comfortable doing an option play.
But if anyone is inclined to go buy VPHM call options for VPHM if/when the stock hits the pivot, then that's fine, becuz I think it's a solid play and VPHM is volatile enough to move those options. And the good thing is there isn't a whole lot to worry about as far as protection, since there's limited downside risk to that position, (limited to the cost of the calls). No more risk than that. I like options for that very reason. You can leverage a move from a smart entry, yet not be too exposed. If I'm targetting a 400% profit in the option, then I can happily afford losing 50% if I'm wrong, and STILL have a good r/r. And if they're cheap enough, and you only hold one can sit comfortably risking the entire premium and still be within limits.
But before ANYONE trades options, they've GOT to understand the risk and not overcomit themselves. If you're wrong on them and price moves fast against you, those premiums that are close to the money lose value pretty quickly. Some people prefer to trade deep in the money options, which cost a lot more, but also offer more options when you're trying to exit. So the way to protect your position with cheap out of/near money options is a) not overcomitting and b) being strict about exiting. Cuz options are like perishibles....they lose their value the older they get.Comment
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Bought calls for C today (+CAJ Jan 06 50.00 strike) for $0.60.
The charts set up very bullish to my eye. These calls should pay nicely on a bullish breakout through that double top. It's a resistance play this one, so by choosing near the money 50 strike that are so cheap the risk is very low and I've got a great r/r.
There's also a 20-day system long that I'm trying to post the chart for, but imageshack is having probs, so I'll add it later.Comment
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On the +DUZAD VPHM calls I've been watching the volume and price movement for them, and you'll note that there's some light volume there for them, and the premium is staying strong over the drops in stock price intraday. I view that as a bullish sign. I'm trying to post the charts for the two but imageshack is still having problems. I'll post it later.Comment
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Boy, am I glad that's over. Self-inflicted victim of limit orders today; price really moved fast and I got cute with my exits, looking for too much. By electing the limit exit I managed to turn what should have been a simple -5% stop out into a 13% hit and a day full of stress. Oh boy. Anyway, I'm dusting myself off, well reminded to use hard stops with 'c' failures. I know they can get volatile so I made the mental error right there.
But on a high note, that 3rd ELN entry may be a good one and I think it's done the 4 completion and we should get a 5th up now. Hope it's a strong one worth about 20%
Vector closed bearish today, and I've closed the YM swing long here at 10890 for +66. Probably could have simply set 10910 stop on that one, but it's only 20 points worse for giving the market a chance for late day rally. Just didn't appear. So I walk away with another successful YM swing and I'm very much looking forward to getting short tomorrow! INDU closed right on that pink support line I drew earlier, so should that break we could get a real nice drop, and I want to be on board!
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MCX....chart...
Hi Spike,
Thanks for those MCX charts. They are so DETAILED. Actually, I am a bit confused what you meant with following quote.
<<<I'd be exiting your position mystiky at pink 'b' completion area, and then stalking for green weekly 4 completion to coincide with pink 'c' long entry.>>>
Can you use the numbers for this pink 'b' and the pink 'c' long entry?
I am looking for $11 or $13 as entry now? Where is the 4th completion starting from?
By the way, I guess todays action wasn't that great for MCX either...
Merci, as always!
Originally posted by spikefaderMCX:
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By that quote I was assuming you were holding a long position for it, and that if you were holding long, I was simply recommending you exit on the corrective 'b' wave up so you could step aside and stalk a lower entry. Did you stop out of that entry or are you still holding it? Sounds like you're flat now.
And here's the explanation of my chart:
Mystiky, not sure of your MCX exposure and risk tolerance, but if you're NOT using disciplined stops and adding on the way down, you really open the door to some serious pain on big moves down that don't retrace. You probably well know this, but I'm just saying be careful adding to losers. I don't recommend it unless you can have disciplined exits for the adds you make so that you can reposition the average in your favor. But sometimes the market can move so badly against you that stops are really the only thing that's going to save you. I will never forget the price action of ENE (enron) and how much pain that one caused folks as it died and dropped. The only way you can truly protect yourself against that kind of action is to use really good discipline and risk managment. I trust you have that under control, and I'm only bringing that up cuz it's on my mind. Disregard if it doesn't apply. But new traders take heed of this.
Best to ya.Comment
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