Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[Websman]

Spike!!!
You are awsome man!!!
Thanks for all you are doing. I hope none of us on here ever take you for granted. Your help is greatly appreciated.

And...thanks to $$$MR Market$$$ for being open minded and giving you an area to post in.

Rock on!!!

[ForeverInvesting]

SUNW

Spikefader,

SUNW missed there quarterly revenue and EPS targets yesterday and going forward it does not look good for SUNW. Would you short SUNW if it falls to $3.89? I see that there is a low price volume area under $3.89 on the daily chart. I would assume you would cover at the 52-week low at $3.13.

Thanks,
Michael

[spikefader]

Re: Thanks, Spikefader.

Spikefader,
I want to thank you ... I am long ... SCHN, SAFM and OMNI...

Thanks Bullshooter. Glad you're getting something out of it.
Check the charts out.

[spikefader]

Re: NOK

RE NOK
Your techs were right. Fortunately all my $ was tied up yesterday else I would have bought hoping for a trade figuring they had already warned and had gotten trashed since..

Glad that happened then! That NOK gem is buried deep and I'm not digging for it!
Just a passing comment on the "hoping for a trade figuring" words there. Replaced them with "planning for a trade calculating" and it sounds better

[spikefader]

Re: HBIO

Spikefader,
Thank you very much for your TA analysis. Any comments on HBIO?
Regards,

Sure.

[spikefader]

Spike!!!
You are awsome man!!!
Thanks for all you are doing. I hope none of us on here ever take you for granted. Your help is greatly appreciated.
And...thanks to $$$MR Market$$$ for being open minded and giving you an area to post in.
Rock on!!!

Thanks bro. Yep, good on Mr.Market. Good to see interest out there on the topic of charting. It ain't perfect, and there will be plenty of failed setups, but that's where money management will save ya.

[stocks54]

Thanks - HBIO

spikefader,

Thanks for your comments on HBIO.

Regards,

[spikefader]

Re: SUNW

Spikefader,
Would you short SUNW if it falls to $3.89? low price volume area under $3.89 on the daily ... assume you would cover at the 52-week low at $3.13.

No I wouldn't. I don't think that level for SUNW is significant enough. Were it the Oct 02 support of 2.34, I'd consider it, but 2.34 is pretty low price-wise for my liking. I'd also be watching the futures to see what they're doing and might let them lead me. I will occasionally take a trade on a simple break of support in the right circumstances - like if the support is really significant, and there is a good pattern to go with it, like a really good intraday bear flag and the break of support was with good volume. In the right circumstances, that can work really well.

But what I really like is to wait for a condition to be met (most cases channel breakdown) and then look to enter the short after a bit of strength rather than weakness. For eg, a return up to a channel, then a rising intraday wedge breakdown or at intrady resistence levels, or intraday double top, or a break of an intraday SHS neckline, or a 20 day hourly upper bollinger band. That kind of entry really gives you an extraordinary edge than simply shorting a break of support. By doing that, you can set nice tight stops and improve your R/R. Shorting a break of support can be tricky stop-wise. Too often for my liking, price will break support, then the breakdown will be bought and take your stop out, or if you don't have a stop, finish the day nicely in the red. I prefer to start the trade with the best possible chance of immediate success, at a point where if the setup fails, it wasn't valid anyway, and then patiently wait for the next alert to go off.

[Websman]

Spike
Whats your take on MAGS? Everyone seems so hyped up on this stock because of what happened to TASR. I, for one, am a little concerned about all this excitement and am staying out for now.
I am not a great chart reader like you yet, but what I'm seeing right is a possible, drastic drop in priced and a lot of people getting slammed to the floor. Could I be wrong??? Could MAGS really be the next TASR??? Could we all buy 10,000 shares and be filthy, stinking rich in 4 weeks???
Hmm....time will tell.

[spikefader]

Spike
Whats your take on MAGS? Everyone seems so hyped up on this stock because of what happened to TASR. I, for one, am a little concerned about all this excitement and am staying out for now.
I am not a great chart reader like you yet, but what I'm seeing right is a possible, drastic drop in priced and a lot of people getting slammed to the floor. Could I be wrong??? Could MAGS really be the next TASR??? Could we all buy 10,000 shares and be filthy, stinking rich in 4 weeks???
Hmm....time will tell.

Last chart I actually posted relative to a long position was here waiting for the long entry at the lower channel:

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/MAGS_long_waiting.jpg

Can't recall if I posted this one or not; it's a snapshot outlining the reasoning for taking long on April 13 at an intraday triangle breakout at 28.00ish.


My view currently is in this:
28.00ish was the long entry, with a logic stop below LOD on April 13 (26.80 was LOD). If you missed the entry, then put a limit order in at 26.85 and stop out on a break of 26.80, based on BASSAR theory. Otherwise, wait for another long entry at lower channel.


Websman, re your question containing words like "concerned" "excitement", I'll say this: Control of any fear or exhuberance is essential. Don't listen to the crowd and get concerned or excited. As with ALL trades, calculate your max. stop, or pain based on support levels you see, and leave the stop in place and be disciplined and let them get taken out. Fact is, many gaps get filled and many stocks experience sharp drops, too often without warning and gap downs. This is why trading is risky. Know your own level of acceptable risk and act accordingly. There is no reason to fear MAGS, or TASR or any other stock for that matter, in fact there is no reason to let any emotion into your trading. Emotion is a no-no. Have a plan, and trade it without emotion and the success will come. Fear will only prevent you from entering valid setups, and lead you to take profits early. The second great emotional enemy, 'hope', will only cause you to let your losers run. A third bad emotion is exhuberence or excitement; it will only cause you to let a great profit turn into a stop out at even or worse. Trade a plan and don't have a regret if the stock turns out to quadruple from your exit. Be happy that you traded your plan, because it's the losers that CAN'T. Good trading!

[noshadyldy]

Spike,
Do you think MACE was a flash in the pan, givin that they are not as largely in defense as the jump would have us believe?
Thank you for input.
Margie

[spikefader]

Spike,
Do you think MACE was a flash in the pan, givin that they are not as largely in defense as the jump would have us believe?
Thank you for input.
Margie

Yep - MACE looks to me like a reaction jump to the hype. I'd steer clear of it completely, unless you want to short it at some point at resistence, because I think there is more chance that we see a full 100% retracement of the move. I'll do a chart for it later, gotta fly.

[spikefader]

Re: Thanks, Spikefader.

....long....OMNI...breakdown, or high handle?

Bullshooter,
Thought I'd throw a FYI at you re OMNI.

Long entry today from 5.83, with pretty tight stop discussed here: http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=466
Reason for tight stop - channel expansion and I read that as a break, so it's worth giving the long a chance, but the break is actually bearish and if the long runs up, then I'd close the trade on the touch of the next channel.

[Websman]

Spkie,
Once again, thanks a lot for all of your great advice. I am now trying to remain unemotional. Kinda like Spock, from Star trek. Spock was very unemotional and would have made a great stock trader.
Of course, Spock may just have traded stocks from his quarters, aboard the Star Ship Enterprise and may have retired filthy rich. How would we know? He would have never mentioned his great trades to Capt. Kirk or any of the rest of us. I admire Spock for his great restraint and emotional unattachment.
Yes I must strive to be more Vulcan like. I can be a great Vulcan trader and make lots of Vulcan dollars. Then I'll buy a huge Vulcan yacht and lots of other great Vulcan stuff. I will not only be a great Vulcan trader, I will be the greatest Vulcan trader in the Vulcan Federation.
On second thought, I don't believe I'll buy that Vulcan Yacht and other stuff. I'll just turn my Vulcan profits back over into my trading account and be richer than Vulcan Bill Gates. Then I will buy a Vulcan beer for $$$Mr Market$$$ and yourself. You both will Vulcan deserve it for being part of the reason for me being so Vulcan wealthy.
Yes...I will trade like Spock. There's no Vulcan way I can lose like that...

I am not excited or overwhelmed...I am unemotional...

Oh, by the way, now that I am finished explaining my new approach to trading, Have you look at the charts for SIRI. I have been looking at it this week. Although I don't care much for stocks priced this low, the chart looks very interesting to my untrained Vulcan eye. What's even more interesting (not exciting) is the potential future of sattelite radio. This would definitely be a long term hold. Sirius radio will be an option in all Chrysler, Jeep and Mercedes cars, starting with the 2005 models coming out this fall. They will offer a one year, free subscription also. The price and chart may not be so hot, but I can see an interesting new technology beginning to catch on.
A point it would seem logical that the demand for this product will increase and the stock price will rise to higher levels.

Do you have any unemotional thoughts or technical analysis spike?

[spikefader]

...a great Vulcan trader and make lots of Vulcan dollars...so Vulcan wealthy...

That's a great analogy! Trade like a Vulcan.

....SIRI....unemotional thoughts or technical analysis

Sure do - what do you call a Boat in the distance? A Vulcan shame is what. I wouldn't chase from here. There will be another time for SIRI perhaps a new channel break soon, so long at the next channel after that.