Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

My, I have too much to learn. Thanks, spike, for taking time to explain and draw these charts for me.

hehe, don't worry, learning can be fun! You are welcome; glad to help. Just remember that the way I use regression channels may differ from how others use them, but I've found that looking for channel touches is effective for spotting potential reversal points, and that if there is a distinct channel expansion (when you're clicking and draging the channel you will see it suddenly expand) caused by price action, then that's effectively a channel break and a warning if you have an open position opposing the direction of the break. If you haven't already opened an 'annotated' chart from stockcharts.com then I recommend it. You'll see what I mean by expansion. It will suddenly get bigger - caused by price ignoring the channel, and forcing it to widen. Once you see that, then that's a channel break. Many times I will open a position long at a lower channel touch day, but at the same time, there is some degree of channel expansion. If my position snagged a good entry, then I'll keep my tight stop, and be cautious with the long because of the channel break. I will definately target profit at the next downward sloping upper channel, since the channel break is a bearish sign. BUT if the downward sloping channel that I would exit my position at actually turns up, then I have a green light to keep the position open.

[spikefader]

SIE long: Previous chart http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v1.../sIESept14.jpg
Logic - Just broke daily price resistence, and this is the selloff reaction to it. Pretty good r/r down here. EDIT: Stop is 44.50,

[yaoyao]

About CDE. You usually use tight stops. But the stop you use for CDE is pretty wide. What's your consideration?

[spikefader]

About CDE. You usually use tight stops. But the stop you use for CDE is pretty wide. What's your consideration?

Yes, I do. I'm prepared to risk a little more on this one. I'm not able to find a tighter stop worth having. In addition to the channel chart and inverted SHS I've posted, I'm also looking at this one:

[spikefader]

If you like patterns, here's a good one!

QQQ short now makes good sense. Stop of 35.46 above R1 makes good sense too! But bear in mind, that for the daily, I still see this target as likely (http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v1...g/QQQSept9.jpg), so target of 35.00 for exit makes best sense.

[IIC]

Hey Spike...I'm looking at HDWR again...would like to see a blow thru at about 28.90 to 28.95 before I consider it...any recent thoughts? ...THX...IIC

[spikefader]

Hey Spike...I'm looking at HDWR again...would like to see a blow thru at about 28.90 to 28.95 before I consider it...any recent thoughts? ...THX...IIC

Hey.
HDWR - met the SHS target pretty quickly for the last chart. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v1...ing/HDWR_2.jpg

Today:

[IIC]

THX Spike...No analysis requested on these...but you might consider looking at RAE(Friday eod p/v) and REXI. Problem with REXI is the ADV...so can't consider a heavy trade on it.

[yaoyao]

Spike, CDE is very close to your stop. Are you still holding it?

[spikefader]

Spike, CDE is very close to your stop. Are you still holding it?

Yep, still holding. Not much to say about it except that it's proving frustrating - as are my other recent suggestions. But I'll remain detached and stick with the plan.

[Michaelk005]

I am currently holding WHT, which is also proving frustrating. As you know of the merger between CDE and WHT is pending. This news is proving to be moving the prices of both these companies rather drasticly making it harder to chart it. Everyday there is a small peice whhich moves the price by pennies either ^ or down.
Good luck with CDE spike, $3.40 support WHT support at about $2.60

[Websman]

CLRK is still going straight up...

[Websman]

Spike!!!

I've got a technical analysis thingy question for ya....

Do you use Bollinger bands??? I've been checking them out and they seem to be a pretty good tool.

Thanks Spike!!!

YOU ROCK!!!

[yaoyao]

Spike, just as you said before, stocks are all about speculations. They do not always go as you speculated. I am learning from you that never regret any pick as long as I stick with my original plan.

[spikefader]

I am currently holding WHT, which is also proving frustrating. As you know of the merger between CDE and WHT is pending. This news is proving to be moving the prices of both these companies rather drasticly making it harder to chart it. Everyday there is a small peice whhich moves the price by pennies either ^ or down.
Good luck with CDE spike, $3.40 support WHT support at about $2.60

Ya, WHT, I think I recall when you opened that. If I remember correctly, you timed it excellently and you're sitting in profit, well done. But yes, it's been frustrating for precious metals. When I see how CDE has performed against SSRI, I probably shouldn't expect much from it. But the pattern is there, who knows.