Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

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  • spikefader
    Senior Member
    • Apr 2004
    • 7175

    Originally posted by Websman
    Mr Market picked HDWR...I also like UCI.
    Now that we have a Mr Market pick...I was wondering what your analysis is Spike...
    I like HDWR http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v1...HDWRSept18.jpg
    as long as it holds 27.93. My stop would be tucked under that.
    As for an an entry now, look to buy the pivot/S1/S2 or intraday pattern tomorrow. I'll post a chart when the market opens.

    Comment

    • spikefader
      Senior Member
      • Apr 2004
      • 7175

      UCI: wow Webs. What a year it's had. I think it's chasing and hitting upper channel, which is where I'd take profit and wait for retrace.

      Comment

      • spikefader
        Senior Member
        • Apr 2004
        • 7175

        Originally posted by yaoyao
        I often struggle with when to take my profit. Most of times, I sell my shares on its way down. I know that I should sell them on its way up, but greedy often takes over. Do you have any tips on it? I am holding AH, SIE (I bought it back at 44.30), STHLY (yes, I'm still holding it), and CDE (I like the bounce today), but I'm not clear about my target. I only have stop set for these.
        Yes, you should aim to sell on the way up - when price meets your target, when your sell limit order is taken out, as it's sitting in place right at resistence. Why? Because your target should be a logical place where the chart says sell. A great example is an upper channel. Or if it's very close to an upper channel, target intraday R1 or R2 - they are the logical points where smart money exits.

        I know all about the emotion of greed. It is evil IIC is 100% right about lows and highs. The law of averages will show us that we will rarely, if ever, buy at the low and sell at the high. It's just too nuts to think that's likely. So smile and walk away that you got a good chunk of it, and be happy if it goes beyond your target OR falls away, because it doesn't matter to you. What matters to you is your game plan, the logical exit point, and the discipline.

        On that note, letting a winner run forever - even if it does go to the moon - is just as bad for your discipline as letting a loser run forever. You get rewarded finacially if you do it with a winner, and it feels like you've done good, but in reality if you've broken the game plan, or not even had a game plan which is very bad. Why? You've forfeited your control...you're leaving it to luck. Many invest that way and baghold, long-term buy and hold....and great if it works for them, but will it work for you? Is it worth doing? I'm not so sure....although holding onto a skyrocket would be nice. Will striving for skyrockets with no target help me overcome the emotion of greed ruling my targets? No, I think not. What will overcome my greed is drawing a line in the sand and saying, I exit here because my logical methodology says so.

        Stocks can be illogical for sure, and it would be wonderful to catch all the crazy stuff and profit from it. But in reality, we cannot depend on that craziness being consistent enough to make us very wealthy through speculation. What we can do is be smart enough to plan for part of the craziness, and enjoy scooping our profits and walking to the next gem that awaits us.

        Comment

        • spikefader
          Senior Member
          • Apr 2004
          • 7175

          ARIA: The time to buy again. Looking for entry today. The SHS targets $8.80.



          Comment

          • spikefader
            Senior Member
            • Apr 2004
            • 7175

            Originally posted by spikefader
            I like HDWR ....
            As for an an entry now, look to buy the pivot/S1/S2 or intraday pattern tomorrow. I'll post a chart when the market opens.
            Here they are:

            Comment

            • tokyojoeskid
              No Posting allowed; invalid email
              • Oct 2003
              • 222

              Spike I have been watchin SNDK and it is looking good. Bought some at 21 but sold at 21. Looking to get back in, if it breaks throught he 28.5 barrier I think it could run to 33 no problem. what do you think?
              thanks
              TJK

              Comment

              • Websman
                Senior Member
                • Apr 2004
                • 5545

                CLRK...still going up...amazing!

                Comment

                • Websman
                  Senior Member
                  • Apr 2004
                  • 5545

                  Looks like HDWR is giving up its gains for the past week. I'll wait for the pullback...I love bargain shopping.

                  Comment


                  • Today's market was bloody. So many stocks broke their S2s. I put in 3 buy orders at their S1s last night. One was filled minutes after the market opened. I cancelled another two orders. It looks like the market is about to head for another correction (hopefully just another small pull back).

                    Thanks, IIC and Spike, for your expert advice. It might be too late for exercising it on my current holdings after today's actions. I'll look for taking some profit tomorrow anyway. I think the market will go down more.
                    Last edited by Guest; 09-23-2004, 12:07 AM.

                    Comment

                    • spikefader
                      Senior Member
                      • Apr 2004
                      • 7175

                      QQQ sets up long now. Took a long at 35.08. Stop under LOD. SHS target on daily over 37.



                      Comment

                      • spikefader
                        Senior Member
                        • Apr 2004
                        • 7175

                        Originally posted by yaoyao
                        Today's market was bloody. So many stocks broke their S2s. I put in 3 buy orders at their S1s last night. One was filled minutes after the market opened. I cancelled another two orders. It looks like the market is about to head for another correction (hopefully just another small pull back).

                        Thanks, IIC and Spike, for your expert advice. It might be too late for exercising it on my current holdings after today's actions. I'll look for taking some profit tomorrow anyway. I think the market will go down more.
                        You're welcome yaoyao. I'm curious why you cancelled the two orders. Order one that was filled - it was part of your plan right? So the fill was good. I suspect there was an element of fear with you taking the other 2 orders off the table. If so, that fear is something you've got to work on eliminating. What are the three stocks? I'd like to throw up some charts for you.

                        On market direction, perhaps it could head lower. But right now, there is a bullish QQQ setup which I took. Let's see how resilient it is. The channel is a minor one, but still worth attempting imo.

                        Comment

                        • tokyojoeskid
                          No Posting allowed; invalid email
                          • Oct 2003
                          • 222

                          Well I didnt sit tight on the DECK, I felt like I needed to take a profit and sold yesterday at 33. Man glad I did that as today it is testing its 50dma at 30.05, maybe it will continue its charge but at least I protected my profit.

                          Comment

                          • spikefader
                            Senior Member
                            • Apr 2004
                            • 7175

                            Originally posted by tokyojoeskid
                            Spike I have been watchin SNDK and it is looking good. Bought some at 21 but sold at 21. Looking to get back in, if it breaks throught he 28.5 barrier I think it could run to 33 no problem. what do you think?
                            thanks
                            TJK
                            Here's what I see for SNDK.

                            Comment

                            • spikefader
                              Senior Member
                              • Apr 2004
                              • 7175

                              Originally posted by tokyojoeskid
                              Well I didnt sit tight on the DECK, I felt like I needed to take a profit and sold yesterday at 33. Man glad I did that as today it is testing its 50dma at 30.05, maybe it will continue its charge but at least I protected my profit.
                              That worked out nicely then! Good one. But remember 'feelings' are an indicator of emotion. It worked out profitable, which will only reinforce what you did as a good thing. But if it wasn't your plan, then you've broken a rule. The stock could have jumped 5 points overnight and you'd be feeling regret instead of gladness. If there was some technical reason that you exited, that's a different story. That would consistitute great trade management.

                              Looking at DECK today, it's falling back towards the lower channels again. The channel at 28.50ish would be a nice place to start watching for an intraday reason to buy it.

                              Comment

                              • spikefader
                                Senior Member
                                • Apr 2004
                                • 7175

                                Originally posted by spikefader
                                Here they are:
                                Well, obviously didn't work out, and would have you stopped out. And no, I had not taken it.
                                Here it is currently :

                                Comment

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