Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

ARIA:
Refer to previus long entry a few posts back. Another nice intraday entry point today; Nice target, great R/R: risking 2.4% for 44% target.

[spikefader]

Worth an entry tomorrow........will watch. Previous chart:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/APPXlong.jpg

Warning longs:

[Websman]

Spike...

What's your take on LOJN???

[yaoyao]

The three orders were ELAB, CALM and ARLP, three fundamentally-sound companies. The first two are bargain shopping to me. I hope I could hit another HRT or ESMC. ARLP has a nice chart (a good volume dry up). ELAB is the weakest one of the three, chart-wise. (I kind of took chance there). I put in three orders at a little lower than their S1s. Didn't expect that the market would be that bad without any warning sign. Guess which one was taken? Yes, ELAB. I made a couple of mistakes on ELAB. I didn't have a plan for selling in place after the order was filled (I'm still asking myself, how could I not think of a selling plan). I should've sold it as soon as I saw it hit new low, but instead, I sold it with more than a point of loss. ELAB is in the same industry group with APPX. They were both hit hard these two days. The reason that I cancelled the other two orders was that I think the market will go down more, and I dont want to buy any more stocks during the down trend.

CDE made a very nice run. What's your target for it? I would like to hold it longer.

[spikefader]

The three orders were ELAB, CALM and ARLP, three fundamentally-sound companies. The first two are bargain shopping to me. I hope I could hit another HRT or ESMC. ARLP has a nice chart (a good volume dry up). ELAB is the weakest one of the three (I kind of took chance there). I put in three orders at a little lower than their S1s. Didn't expect that the market would be that bad without any warning sign. Guess which one was taken? Yes, ELAB. I made a couple of mistakes on ELAB. I didn't have a plan for selling in place after the order was filled. I should've sold it as soon as I saw it hit new low, but instead, I sold it with more than a point of loss. ELAB is in the same industry group with APPX. They were both hit hard these two days. The reason that I cancelled the other two orders was that I think the market will go down more, and I dont want to buy any more stocks during the down trend.

CDE made a very nice run. What's your target for it? I would like to hold it longer.

CDE: Yes, it's doing well now. My target is $5.15. Keeping the stop loss where it is at 3.39 at this stage, with a view to moving to even at an appropriate time.
For those interested in risk reward, the ratio is 1:5.5 (7.4% risk/40.7% target) which is not bad.
Here's the inverted SHS pattern target:

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=7484&postcount=870

Just looking quickly at those three charts, at first glance ELAB looks pretty ugly, CALM looks precarious but might be good channel-wise, and ARLP is forming a bearish rising wedge. I'll do channels study on them later and post some charts.

There's a few bearish posts on the boards I note, and I note Zeev is warning of a sell off soon too. I'm not so sure the bull has given up just yet - the QQQ long setup today is one reason, although I didn't like the way the day finished in the last hour. We will see anyway.

[New-born baby]

HDWR Question

Spike,

Boy do I miss putting the Shocked Icon next to your name! Only bad thing about this new format.

Your chart on HDWR showed a box "circled" around a volume bar with the notation "sitting on volume." As I looked at the bar I noticed a larger red box than the black box. The red box represents "down volume;" the black box represents "up" volume. My question: does that make any difference? If the black box was larger, wouldn't that signal a stronger base of support than vice versa.

As always Spike, thank you for everything. And the very best investing to you.

[spikefader]

Spike,

Boy do I miss putting the Shocked Icon next to your name! Only bad thing about this new format.

Your chart on HDWR showed a box "circled" around a volume bar with the notation "sitting on volume." As I looked at the bar I noticed a larger red box than the black box. The red box represents "down volume;" the black box represents "up" volume. My question: does that make any difference? If the black box was larger, wouldn't that signal a stronger base of support than vice versa.

As always Spike, thank you for everything. And the very best investing to you.

Hey, well, volume study is an interesting subject, and it's a great question, and worthy of some serious thought.
I see it this way: It's very obvious that the color of that volume box represents whether the buyers or the main buyers are buying on the way up or on the way down; are they aggressively buying it, or are they sneakily buying it; do they want it to be clear they are buying it or do they want to hide it? And surely, if the buyer is big enough it won't matter if the volume is up volume or down volume. Why would a buyer want to hide their buying? And does this really happen? Yes, it does and the reason is they want to fool others into selling them their shares at a discount. Sneaky concept: and it makes sense. So perhaps a black box representing 'up' volume is really not a true indication of whether the stock is getting support or not. Maybe it's just a thing to be 'weighed' and considered as a perhaps. Perhaps it could be a stronger base. But the fact is that price by volume is reflective of where the money has entered the equation, and therefore where stop loss orders may reside on the chart. This is why if price fails at price by volume support I see that as a bad thing. It's saying that perhaps no buyers are there at the popular price to hold it there, and if that's true, then what is to hold it up let alone push it up further. Is this a naive interpretation? Perhaps, but when combined with channels and previous support levels, and the wave formations and patterns, it seems to have some validity.
Also, at the same time, high volume up days could also be reflective of 'exhuberence' and desperate covering which often precedes a climactic short-term or long-term top.
So in short, I don't seriously consider the color of those volume by price bars. I consider the amount of volume, which tells me there may be a reason for the high activity. And the precise point of that activity relative to other things on the chart such as support/resistence has an influence on how investors might feel about that stock and therefore the possible direction of price.
But daily volume bars I do - especially when there are several days of high volume blue bars and it is 'breaking out' of a base. That is a different story, and it strongly suggests that large buyers are pushing the momo, and want to paint a clear picture that there is strong support to push it up through resistence and into open ground.
Anyone else with thoughts on volume and how it relates to support and resistence are welcome to post. I'm no expert!

[spikefader]

CLRK...still going up...amazing!

LOL. It's on helium! What a lovely wave it is. Aren't waves amazing?! And do you see the little bullflag/pennant/wedge near 12.50 that preceded it all. Wedges can be a great little indicator.
Any takers to chase this puppy? I think NOT - that's a pretty bearish hourly candle that just formed. I think not. On the contrary, it sets up for one of my spikefade shorts! Reasoning: hourly candle spike at R2. Short the R2 with stop over HOD.

[spikefader]

CLRK: a few more charts to support a short at today's R2:

[spikefader]

QQQ sets up long now. Took a long at 35.08. Stop under LOD. SHS target on daily over 37.

Stopped out 34.85 for -0.23. That plunge was a quicky. Running stops they are The Q's frustrate once again - I shall retreat to plot and scheme against it once more mwahaha ...

[spikefader]

ARIA:
Refer to previus long entry a few posts back. Another nice intraday entry point today; Nice target, great R/R: risking 2.4% for 44% target.

Is this stuff helpful at all?

[Michaelk005]

I almost bit on this one before the pop but got preocupied by CSCO... Good call spike.

[spikefader]

NUTR update for those interested:

[spikefader]

I know vulcans have LONG memories

Webs, I'm impressed by the blue channel break in the chart. Price is nearing the 61.8% Fib retrace from move 1, and is near price by volume support at 27.00, and is punching the lower channel, possibly in wave 2 of 5. Traders will be tempted to buy OFG, so I'm watching. If it weren't for the big SHS and neckline break I've indicated earlier, I'd be tempted to look for a long next week. Maybe it'll turn out to be a huge SHS failure, and it'll do a 5 wave up past 32.50! Who knows, but I know you'd like to avenge your pain!

[spikefader]

I like HDWR http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v1...HDWRSept18.jpg
as long as it holds 27.93. My stop would be tucked under that.
As for an an entry now, look to buy the pivot/S1/S2 or intraday pattern tomorrow. I'll post a chart when the market opens.

Now recommending WAIT.