Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

**spikefader** · 10-04-2004, 03:07 PM

Originally posted by jiesen

Yowza!

I'm back in NUS now... I set a GTC limit at 22 earlier, and wanted it to get filled, but not quite like this! Ended up getting it at the bargain price of 19.8, but STILL! I'm sure after a 6 point haircut, it's now broken every channel and killed all techincal signs for going up, and screams SELL ME, but I think I'll be in this one for the long haul now.

Could this be overrreaction? $6 down on a $0.10 revision in yearly earnings (1.03 vs 1.13)

Oh boy, sorry to hear that. I actually just recently posted NUS warning the other day: http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v1.../NUSSept25.jpg
What made you want to buy it at 22.00?

Here is what I see:

As a side note, here is an example of how put options can save you. Had you hedged at my warning with NUS Dec 20 puts, you would have an overnight increase in put option profit of 814% - yes, you read that right!
Charts don't lie folks! learn to read 'em.

**spikefader** · 10-04-2004, 03:15 PM

Previous chart: http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v1...ELNSHSbear.jpg

Today another warning to longs: I would recommend hedging with Nov 20 put options for 1.00 today.

**jiesen** · 10-04-2004, 03:21 PM

Originally posted by spikefader

No problem! Well done on that nice NUS trade.
Looking at the chart, it seems that it's time to move to greener pastures. NUS just failed to keep the red channel upwards. This is an early warning that I will not ignore, and I suggest if you want to trade NUS, look to go long at the lower blue channel, down near $21.90. It's likely that the gap at 23.58 will be tested imo.

See post 969-971...

Not to be blaming you or anything for my mistake, because I was actually set on buying NUS anyway (and without your warning, would have picked it up around 24) but after I considered your chart and TA advice, I put the GTC order in for 22- didn't expect this kind of gap down though. Live and learn, I guess!

**spikefader** · 10-04-2004, 03:44 PM

QQQ update: Very good intraday buy signal at gap with price near gap support at 36.36. Stop for open QQQ position is now under pivot @ 35.85. This risk is still within acceptable limits at 1.9%.

**spikefader** · 10-04-2004, 03:55 PM

Originally posted by jiesen

See post 969-971...

Not to be blaming you or anything for my mistake, because I was actually set on buying NUS anyway (and without your warning, would have picked it up around 24) but after I considered your chart and TA advice, I put the GTC order in for 22- didn't expect this kind of gap down though. Live and learn, I guess!

Doh! I wish you'd played an intraday pattern with it!!
For the benefit of readers, jiensen's refered post 969 I say to him "NUS just failed to keep the red channel upwards. This is an early warning that I will not ignore, and I suggest if you want to trade NUS, look to go long at the lower blue channel, down near $21.90"
Yes, I remember now. This is the type of thing I've learned in the past as to why entries are so critical and why I'm so obsessive over them. Today's price action for NUS is exactly why I wait for an intraday pattern to enter a trade from a channel and recommend everyone do too! I know many people can't watch all day like me, so they must use orders in place and hope for the best that they catch a good entry price regardless of intrady patterns. You and I both wish you'd have waited for an intraday pattern first!!

Well, what's your plan with stop loss? Did you have one when you opened the position? You're 5 points in the red in one day - sheesh. A lesson to be learned my friend. Make sure you comit to an acceptable stop loss of no more than 4% on any one trade. You're risk is currently up to 23%! Always use a stop.

FWIW, the intraday pattern I see for inverted SHS has failed

This may slide some more

**spikefader** · 10-04-2004, 04:35 PM

Cubemap update:

Cubemap #1 is still valid and remains unchanged. Vector remained bullish at close of market today, so long is the bias for tomorrow.

Summary today: As posted, took an aggressive QQQ long from 36.55, from a 1 min bullflag today. There were many opportunties to take intraday channel long positions. Price action for the day saw some quick drops to support, and price finished inside the weekend gap. Stop for open position is 35.85 (below today's pivot).

**Websman** · 10-04-2004, 05:06 PM

Alright guys... I'm back from Orlando and I am a happy camper again today!

SIRI was up, once again! I'm telling y'all...Satellite radio is going to be big. I believe Sirius an XM both will grow by leaps and bounds over the next few years. I believe we are about to see some great technological advances over the next decade. Opportunities are everywhere!

I'm also excited by private space flight. I see a possible, future opportunity here also.

I sold NUTR today at $14.28. This gave me a fair profit. I love profits!

Spike, I'll be awaiting your word on NUTR. Now that I'm out again, I'm looking for a lower entry point! lol

Has anyone been watching WIN? I've been keeping a eye out for this one. I believe this one is a good turn around canidate.

**jiesen** · 10-04-2004, 06:11 PM

well, it's pretty bad, but not as bad as you think- I did have the order for 22, but since it gapped down at the open it filled at 19.8, so I'm really only $3 down so far, and if it drops another 3, I'm not selling. In fact, I'd probably double-up somewhere below 13 or 14. I am not using stops on these either, since 1) I never have and 2) this is a $$MM pick, and on these, I'll never use a stop loss.

I'm still confident, as $$MM is, that this will hit the 15% target, albeit not anytime soon...

**Websman** · 10-04-2004, 06:45 PM

Originally posted by jiesen

well, it's pretty bad, but not as bad as you think- I did have the order for 22, but since it gapped down at the open it filled at 19.8, so I'm really only $3 down so far, and if it drops another 3, I'm not selling. In fact, I'd probably double-up somewhere below 13 or 14. I am not using stops on these either, since 1) I never have and 2) this is a $$MM pick, and on these, I'll never use a stop loss.

I'm still confident, as $$MM is, that this will hit the 15% target, albiet not anytime soon...

Stocks have a strange way of doing what we least expect. The drop on NUS seems extreme. The news was bad, but it wasn't THAT bad. I wish I could stay home tomorrow and watch what happens. I bet there will be a little bounce back up. I'll be watching this one as well as NUTR.

**spikefader** · 10-04-2004, 08:27 PM

Originally posted by Websman

Alright guys... I'm back from Orlando and I am a happy camper again today!

SIRI was up, once again! I'm telling y'all...Satellite radio is going to be big. I believe Sirius an XM both will grow by leaps and bounds over the next few years. I believe we are about to see some great technological advances over the next decade. Opportunities are everywhere!

I'm also excited by private space flight. I see a possible, future opportunity here also.

I sold NUTR today at $14.28. This gave me a fair profit. I love profits!

Spike, I'll be awaiting your word on NUTR. Now that I'm out again, I'm looking for a lower entry point! lol

Has anyone been watching WIN? I've been keeping a eye out for this one. I believe this one is a good turn around canidate.

Good profit taking Webs, way to go! I'll definately give you the heads up when channels are good for NUTR. You were very nimble to catch some bullish profit on it, and probably wise to step out today. The Bands are still squeezing, so let's see what happens.

**Websman** · 10-04-2004, 08:34 PM

Once again, thanks for the great advice Spike!

**spikefader** · 10-04-2004, 08:35 PM

Originally posted by jiesen

well, it's pretty bad, but not as bad as you think- I did have the order for 22, but since it gapped down at the open it filled at 19.8, so I'm really only $3 down so far, and if it drops another 3, I'm not selling. In fact, I'd probably double-up somewhere below 13 or 14. I am not using stops on these either, since 1) I never have and 2) this is a $$MM pick, and on these, I'll never use a stop loss.

I'm still confident, as $$MM is, that this will hit the 15% target, albeit not anytime soon...

Whew! OK cool. Fair enuf re your not using stops. If it's your game plan and you are prepared to risk the lot, then great. I shall be prayin' the silly thing rises for ya

I don't know squat about fundies, which is why I'm so fussy with entries and concerned about stops. I guess I'll never change. I can't help but push for stops since FA can change too - look at BEL, which was one of MM's picks. Who knows, one day soon that might lift-off one and meet his target, just not in the next couple months

Anyway, best of luck!

**spikefader** · 10-04-2004, 08:46 PM

Originally posted by Websman

Once again, thanks for the great advice Spike!

You are welcome. Just want everyone to PROFIT!!!!

Speaking of Profit and Siri, I would take mine at 3.50 at resistence....I note it's up after hours to 3.38, so it's almost there. You can always reenter at support!!!

**spikefader** · 10-04-2004, 08:54 PM

Originally posted by Websman

Has anyone been watching WIN? I've been keeping a eye out for this one. I believe this one is a good turn around canidate.

Just pulled up all history monthly and the huge falling wedge is bullish, and price is down there near support. It's just a very very ugly chart. I will wait for better times.

**spikefader** · 10-04-2004, 09:01 PM

Originally posted by spikefader

Hi stocks54.
....The short answer is buy Monday's pivot or S1 and put a stop at whatever your max pain is, or at the points I suggested. If you miss it Monday, just follow each day and aim for the pivot or S1.

Stocks54,
I note WITS hit the pivot today at 16.75, did you take it long?

Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

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