Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[yaoyao]

Spike, how do you protect your profit? Once you said if you have a couple of points profit, you would move your stop to break even. Since you use tight stops, it doesnt give you much profit if it ever hits your stop. How often do stocks hit its SHS target? Do you usually wait for it to happen? I only have one position right. It's short position on TASR. I am struggling between taking profit and waiting for a lower price.

Thanks.

[spikefader]

SMH: Recall my recent discussion with carribean_mike about SMH, and our attempts to get good entries short on it. For the info on anyone looking to learn options, I jotted down the price of the SMH Sept 35 Puts when I took my first short at 32.95. They were 2.80 at the ask. Today, SMH stock price is 28.88 and the price of the SMH Sept 35 Puts are 6.20 at the ask.

So: If you had been long SMH and saw that big bearish channel break I posted in previous charts, and you were a little worried about your long but didn't want to close it, you could have hedged your stock position by buying one or more puts, depending on your exposure in the stock. Had you done that, you would have in your pocket a $340 profit per contract, less whatever commission you pay (IB is $1 per option side)

So for example, if you had $10,000 worth of stock, your stock value would now be worth $8,764 (a loss of $1236). But had you hedged with 4 Put options, today you'd have 4x340=1360 worth of puts. You would have effectively hedged your long position, and profited from it. You'd now be in a position to evaluate whether to take all the options profit or to hold them out of fear that SMH will fall further, and perhaps target a down side area of say a lower channel touch to close out your puts and reinvest into your long, or into an entirely different stock, one that looks stronger. In my opinion, it's nuts to throw good money after bad, so I'd look elsewhere.

Hope that's helpful to someone.

[spikefader]

Spike, how do you protect your profit? Once you said if you have a couple of points profit, you would move your stop to break even. Since you use tight stops, it doesnt give you much profit if it ever hits your stop. How often do stocks hit its SHS target? Do you usually wait for it to happen? I only have one position right. It's short position on TASR. I am struggling between taking profit and waiting for a lower price.

Thanks.

Yes, once I've got profit, I refuse to take a loss so I move stop to even. If the market gives me something then great. If it takes it away, then so be it.

You see, I want long rides so I must risk getting stopped out. There is a period of just hanging in there and not worrying about it. If I get a reverse signal or if there is a warning signal, then I close the position and take my profit. Otherwise, I wait for my target. SHS targets are very reliable, I'd say over 80% or higher, but there's no guarantee it'll happen as quickly as you'd like, or without stopping you out first. It's something that frustrates for sure, but it's the only way to do it. Fear will make you want to close a position too early, and you'll experience the emotion of regret. Emotions just cloud vision, so it's best to just leave it at the door. What will be will be, and you can't control the market, and it will give you what it gives you. There will be times when it will frustrate, and times when it won't. Trending markets are good. Choppy ones frustrate. You can either elect to step out during chop, but then you may miss a great move. No easy answer I'm afraid.

Re TASR, I know what you mean. Channels say it's going lower. It's got a real nice target to the downside, so if it were me, I'd move stop to even and hold it short. You could be well rewarded for patience with it. If I got taken out, I'd look to get in again at an ideal time - either another channel short day, or after intraday strength and with patterns. The fact is though, that if you hold short with stop at even, then you are risking all that profit you have. This is where it comes down to what is your plan. If it's only for a short ride and target, and small profit, then stick to your plan. If your plan is to get onto a huge ride, then stick with it.

[yaoyao]

ELN may start its downtrend without giving us a good entry point.
I've missed ELN short twice. It may not be my lucky stock.

I've had 6 points of profit on TASR. I'd like to have some profit if I get stopped out, so I may put my stop at 3 points. I'm usually very patient. Sometime too patient to see my profit go away.

[Websman]

WOW what a day on the market!!! When will it find a bottom???

Spike, I gotta tell you, this charting thing is really working out. I believe I'm finally catching on! My human emotions wanted me to buy DHB at $13.50 today, but my Vulcan logic kicked in and told me not to do it. The chart still did not look good. Here is what happened today...DHB down .87 to $12.57! Where is DHB headed? I'll let the chart and my Vulcan logic figure it out.

It looks to me like now would be a good time to stay in cash, unless your shorting.

By the way...Tropical Storm Bonnie fizzled.. We didn't even get any rain...

[spikefader]

WOW what a day on the market!!! When will it find a bottom???

Spike, I gotta tell you, this charting thing is really working out. I believe I'm finally catching on! My human emotions wanted me to buy DHB at $13.50 today, but my Vulcan logic kicked in and told me not to do it. The chart still did not look good. Here is what happened today...DHB down .87 to $12.57! Where is DHB headed? I'll let the chart and my Vulcan logic figure it out.

It looks to me like now would be a good time to stay in cash, unless your shorting.

By the way...Tropical Storm Bonnie fizzled.. We didn't even get any rain...

Well, as for the market? Who knows. As per previous QQQ chart, it's headed to lower channel support, and here's the daily as of today. What it does at the channel will be telling.


Good one on waiting for DHB. Good for you that you're getting something out of charting. As you have seen, it is not always right, but it doesn't have to be. The only thing that needs to be right is how you react to what you see. If you can be consistent with your actions, and stay happy even when you're wrong, then you're a long way there. DHB will be a buy again one day, maybe soon, maybe not so soon....but if charting can help you get on the right side, then excellent.

[spikefader]

ELN - Has the fat lady has sung for longs?

Channel short day on Thursday:

Nice 3 day pattern to justify entry short on Monday open at 20.10 with stop above 21ish:

[Websman]

This is great!

DHB is going down, just as the chart shows. Next resistance is around $11. If it breaks that, it could fill the gap and shoot down to the $9 range.

It looks like a bargain shoppers dream is taking place right before our eyes. The market sucks right now, but it should make for some great opportunities when things finally get going again.

[mrmarket]

This is great!

DHB is going down, just as the chart shows. Next resistance is around $11. If it breaks that, it could fill the gap and shoot down to the $9 range.

It looks like a bargain shoppers dream is taking place right before our eyes. The market sucks right now, but it should make for some great opportunities when things finally get going again.

dude..are you ok? That Hurricane Charley looked pretty nasty.

[New-born baby]

Shorting ELN

Spike

I am not expert chartist, but I thought I'd throw out my 2 cents for your consideration. I've owned ELN 12 times, and shorted it 5 times. I have noticed that ELN at the open regularly executes their buys first. What I mean is, ELN usually spikes upward on the open on most days. What do they call this, a bear rally? I mention this because if your plan is to short at 20.10, it may spike up past you before it falls, and I want to see you milk every last penny out of this cow.

Best of investing to you, Spike. I am rooting for you to suck this cow dry!

Next project: OFG

[Websman]

dude..are you ok? That Hurricane Charley looked pretty nasty.

It's TERRIBLE!!!!! I've been through.....just kidding.

Actually I'm in the Panhandle and we came out pretty good. Bonnie was headed our way (Destin), but it went further east than expected. We barely got a breeze. Charley did look nasty. I'm glad I don't live in Tampa.

Thanks for asking.

[spikefader]

Re: Shorting ELN

Spike

I am not expert chartist, but I thought I'd throw out my 2 cents for your consideration. I've owned ELN 12 times, and shorted it 5 times. I have noticed that ELN at the open regularly executes their buys first. What I mean is, ELN usually spikes upward on the open on most days. What do they call this, a bear rally? I mention this because if your plan is to short at 20.10, it may spike up past you before it falls, and I want to see you milk every last penny out of this cow.

Best of investing to you, Spike. I am rooting for you to suck this cow dry!

Next project: OFG

Thanks for the heads up. I'll consider modifying the plan and wait for a spike. That way I can spikefade it
Oh, and OFG - man, that thing looks to me like it's about to fall off a cliff. I am waiting for 26 to short, but it may not get there. Perhaps the next decent intraday pattern?? But then the stop is the tricky part.

[spikefader]

ELN: I zoomed in this morning on the daily and discovered that I was incorrect. The was no new channel short day on Thursday. It came close but no cigar. I shall wait, since it looks like it's got a chance to run up.

[noshadyldy]

belated thanks to Spike and heads up on ET

Thanks my sexy 12 year old friend for the infor on adsx. Life hit me hard and took one of my precious furry loves, then a computer failure, so ... been under it, consequently, I'm quite tardy with these thanks.
I do truly appreciate your generous nature and all your help to me and this board.

Having said all that, Let me pass along what looks like a good opportunity to me. ET is pullling out of a reverse SHS pattern. it's fundamentals don't stink either.

Margie

[noshadyldy]

belated thanks to Spike and heads up on ET

Thanks my sexy 12 year old friend for the infor on adsx. Life hit me and took one of my beloved furry loves, then a computer failure, so ... been under it, consequently, I'm quite tardy with these thanks.
I do truly appreciate your generous nature and all your help to me and this board.

Let me pass along what looks like a good opportunity to me. ET is pullling out of a reverse SHS pattern. it's fundamentals don't stink either.

Margie