Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[Thomrich]

Greetings again Spike,
Your discipline with ZICA is a textbook lesson in trading the plan.Down .70 today,I commend you on your emotion free strategy.

I bet you sleep good at night.

In Awe Tom

[dmk112]

Thanks for your thoughts Spike,...

[dmk112]

i'm thinking to either salvage my losses on a bounce or wait it out until earnings....decisions, decisions...

[Websman]

i'm thinking to either salvage my losses on a bounce or wait it out until earnings....decisions, decisions...

Honestly DMK, I don't see how DHB could tank much further after earnings.
But, on the other hand, I would never have thought ELN was going to get hit so hard. It pays to be safe. If DHB drops tomorrow, I'm out...no questions asked.

[dmk112]

Webs, yea...it broke support in the 13-14 area and now that support is going to be heavy resistance, so I'm thiking I should salavge if it bounces towards the 13's.

[Hany]

you know??

This reminds me of FRD. Has excellent fundamentals but it briefly became out of fashion and then it tanked from $15 to $8 and now it jumped to $10 all of a sudden. These big shot traders decide what's fashionable and then get out and I think that there must be a huge stop set by many people so the price just tanks and then we get all confused coz it doesn't make sense.

Look at CME. It was $230 then tanked to $185 and now it's approaching $220. This market is very short-term-minded.

I guess now is a good time to buy for us who aren't invested. Good luck, fellas.

[Websman]

The good news for me is that I'm only down .49 on DHB as I got in at $12.79. I should come out OK.

[spikefader]

There are times to buy a stock that's just had bad news, has gapped down, hurt a bunch of people, caused a ruckus, made grown men cry, and left everybody stunned. With ELN, now is not such a time. With MRK, now is such a time. MRK seems poised to bust a bull flag, an inverted SHS neckline, and fill a gap. It's just a matter of how long it seems.

[New-born baby]

Pgh

greetings,
unfortunately I bit in the AM well above a good entry.I dove in at low 21s,Im used to the post div. selloff,but this fell through the 50dma which I use as a reference.

After hours it sold off to 20.52 0n 300shares,I dont think that means much,but it makes you wonder.Its likely to swing wild in the AM,so Im a little hesitant about placing a firm stop.

Looks like this may wipe my profit from yesterdays EENC trade.

This daily candle appears dismal to me,am I correct it will likely drop more tomorrow based on todays action?

cordially Tom

Tom,

You are in great shape with PGH. The divy is going to pay you even if the share price stays down for awhile. Just sit tight and relax. Oil is very high and will remain very high all of 2005. Summer driving season isn't here yet, so we'll be seeing $2.50 gasoline again, and PGH will be back to $22.

The divy is your parachute for a soft landing. Just don't cut the cords.

[Thomrich]

Tom,

You are in great shape with PGH. The divy is going to pay you even if the share price stays down for awhile. Just sit tight and relax. Oil is very high and will remain very high all of 2005. Summer driving season isn't here yet, so we'll be seeing $2.50 gasoline again, and PGH will be back to $22.

The divy is your parachute for a soft landing. Just don't cut the cords.

Greetings New born,
Thanks for the words of encouragement.I am a trader who likes to get in and out as soon as possible,like with EENC yesterday.

The yield is back over 11% at these prices,which is fairly respectable.Every canroy I looked at got chopped today,not sure why.

My biggest regret is not nailing a good entry,I thought the 50dma would give support,and has worked in the past as a good entry.I was drooling when I got in below it,then it kept sinking.Joy turns to regret.

In theory it should start to advance to the next payment within the next few days.Im puzzled as to why the distributions havent been increasing,with the hedges at 45+,hopefully it will come around.

cordially,your friend ,
Tom

BTW watching for the bottom on FRO after the shorts work on it a while.

[Thomrich]

There are times to buy a stock that's just had bad news, has gapped down, hurt a bunch of people, caused a ruckus, made grown men cry, and left everybody stunned. With ELN, now is not such a time. With MRK, now is such a time. MRK seems poised to bust a bull flag, an inverted SHS neckline, and fill a gap. It's just a matter of how long it seems.

Greetings Spike,
On top of the nice chart potential,MRK also pays a 5% dividend,which is better than most.

Also this triangle hunt is the best.Gives me something to look for besides Elvis's image in a chart pattern.

cordially Tom

[New-born baby]

Hurry Tom

Greetings New born,
Thanks for the words of encouragement.I am a trader who likes to get in and out as soon as possible,like with EENC yesterday.

The yield is back over 11% at these prices,which is fairly respectable.Every canroy I looked at got chopped today,not sure why.

My biggest regret is not nailing a good entry,I thought the 50dma would give support,and has worked in the past as a good entry.I was drooling when I got in below it,then it kept sinking.Joy turns to regret.

In theory it should start to advance to the next payment within the next few days.Im puzzled as to why the distributions havent been increasing,with the hedges at 45+,hopefully it will come around.

cordially,your friend ,
Tom

BTW watching for the bottom on FRO after the shorts work on it a while.

Tom,

As soon as you read this go to "THE GLOBE AND MAIL" online and see the PGH announcement yesteday. I have to leave in 5 minutes and can't tell you what it says, but a friend emailed me the news. Read and decided.

Sorry not more helpful.

God bless.

[spikefader]

Thanks Thomrich.

Yes, ain't it great to have something constructive like a triangle to hunt for, and to frame an entry based off something statistically good enough to add it to the toolbox?! They aren't perfect (nothing ever is) but when they are right, a tradeable move usually follows. This is especially true on the short side. An example was DHB yesterday. That intraday triangle that broke down was good for 8% intraday. Short the break down, cover at the gap, and you'd be pretty pleased with yourself, especially considering the bounce that came at the gap fill.

[spikefader]

Tom,
As soon as you read this go to "THE GLOBE AND MAIL" online and see the PGH announcement yesteday. I have to leave in 5 minutes and can't tell you what it says, but a friend emailed me the news. Read and decided.
Sorry not more helpful.
God bless.

Here is the clipping:

[New-born baby]

Spike, Tom, et al

Here is the clipping:

Look at the lesson here, because I noted it on my Can thread, and now you can see for yourselves:

Lesson: All Can news is BAD news, except for divy increase.

Why? Because Can investors are usually older folk, looking for a safe income, and they are very, very risk adverse. Therefore, any announcement that doesn't raise the dividend is a cause to sell. PGH is SAFE, SAFE, SAFE! Hold your shares, Tom. In fact, you probably ought to buy 2x as much as before, so you can get out quicker if you wish. But there ought not to be any sweat, no loss of sleep, and certainly, no dumping of shares of PGH.

And bless us everyone.