DECK ==> The May Day Winner!

[stenzrob]

Should have known this would happen to DECK.
It was me that submitted it for the May dump.

[mrmarket]

Should have known this would happen to DECK.
It was me that submitted it for the May dump.

Stenz...remember the mantra...earnings earnings earnings.

[Websman]

Should have known this would happen to DECK.
It was me that submitted it for the May dump.

Don't feel too bad about it Stenz. It looks like the majority of stocks are suffering right now. I'm struggling on all of my positions.

I have a feeling, though, that the market is on the verge of a big turn upwards. This summer should be good. If not, Bush's chances of getting back into office will be down the toilet, and I don't think George will let that happen. Profits are on the way!

[stenzrob]

Stenz...remember the mantra...earnings earnings earnings.

I think I know now what I've been doing wrong.
I've been chanting "Ernie, Ernie, Ernie" not "earnings, earnings, earnings"

[MEA_1956]

FWIW

For the longest time I thought he spelled his name Earnie. So then after I finely got that stright in my boggled brain I thought his nick name should be E E. Short for Earnings Earnie, Opps, Earnings Ernie. ===> MEA

[New-born baby]

DECK and Bearish Cross of the DMI

StockMarket Wizard,

Thank you for your imput on DECK. FYI I did not buy the stock, but I am interested in learning from both you and $$MR.MARKET$$. Ernie the Earnings man has taught us that it is all about earnings, earnings, earnings. What I'd like to learn from you is your theory of buying a stock. Specifically, I am interested in knowing about the DMI. I am so dumb I don't even know what DMI stands for. You have mentioned that it is probably the most important indicator of a stock's movement up or down.

Would you please enlighten this baby?

Thank you so much in advance.

[stenzrob]

Re: DECK and Bearish Cross of the DMI

I am so dumb I don't even know what DMI stands for.

DMI = Dumb Market Investor ?

[taxman]

DMI

For an explanation of DMI, read this:

http://www.askchart.com/pages_n/help/ta/dmi.php

[New-born baby]

Thank You Taxman

Taxman,

Thank you for the information about the DMI. Do you reference it yourself before you buy/sell?

[taxman]

DMI

I use technical analysis as a very small consideration in deciding when to buy or sell a stock. I primarily look at fundamentals such as p/e ratio and growth rates and I look for stocks in industries that I believe are undervalued. A good example of this is the homebuilding industry. They will continue to make high profits and grow at double digit rates. The greatest investment minds (Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett) frowned upon technical analysis. Warren Buffett once said "If picking stocks were that easy(using technical analysis), then everyone would be a billionaire." There have been no billionaires who relied on technical analysis.

[stenzrob]

Re: DMI

... and I look for stocks in industries that I believe are undervalued. A good example of this is the homebuilding industry. They will continue to make high profits and grow at double digit rates.

This goes against conventional wisdom in a rising interest rate environment. See http://www.navellier.com/mm/special_ltr.aspx for example, "interest-rate sensitive stocks, such as financials and homebuilders, pulled back when the overall stock market was moving higher. We should add that housing starts rose 6.4% in March to an annual pace of 2.01 million units in all regions, except the Northeast. As a result, we think that it is safe to say that the homebuilding industry is not dead yet, especially in the sun belt states. However, these data tend to lag a few months, so we wouldn’t be surprised to see them take a hit later in the year."

The greatest investment minds (Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett) frowned upon technical analysis. Warren Buffett once said "If picking stocks were that easy(using technical analysis), then everyone would be a billionaire."

You left out the greatest investment mind of our time, who also does not use TA - our own HUGE $$$MR_MARKET$$$ !!!

[taxman]

Homebuilders

As I said, I look for stocks and industries that are undervalued. The idea is to realize something that other people don't realize yet, go against conventional wisdom. As a CPA with homebuilder clients, I can tell you that they can not possibly meet the demand for new houses, and this was also occurring while rates went up the last time. Demand has exceeded supply for more than 7 years. Also, the municipalities are making it very hard on the builders by placing more and more restrictions on what can be built and where it can be built. Nowadays, a builder must wait about 2 years before being able to build on a piece of land that he has acquired. Therefore, the public builders who can sit on land for years are gaining market share. Even if there is an overall decrease in home sales, the public builders will continue increase sales. Listen to the CC's for any large builder and they all say the same thing - unless there is a rise in rates of more than 2% in 6 mo., they will not be affacted. Therefore, they are considerably undervalued. Read MM's report on SPF.

[stenzrob]

Re: Homebuilders

... they can not possibly meet the demand for new houses, and this was also occurring while rates went up the last time. Demand has exceeded supply for more than 7 years. Also, the municipalities are making it very hard on the builders by placing more and more restrictions on what can be built and where it can be built. Nowadays, a builder must wait about 2 years before being able to build on a piece of land that he has acquired. Therefore, the public builders who can sit on land for years are gaining market share. Even if there is an overall decrease in home sales, the public builders will continue increase sales. Listen to the CC's for any large builder and they all say the same thing - unless there is a rise in rates of more than 2% in 6 mo., they will not be affacted. Therefore, they are considerably undervalued. Read MM's report on SPF.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B6955E4B5%2DBCED%2D4F7B%2D8AC4%2D8C86A7CC4D55%7D&siteid=mktw

"New home sales tumble in April
11.8% drop biggest since Jan. 1994"

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BD12546C7%2D1B80%2D4E7F%2DB0D0%2DC8E50ECE0BF0%7D&siteid=mktw

"Paul Puryear, homebuilding analyst at Raymond James, was by and large pleased with the company's results, noting its operating margin widened to 17.2 percent from 16.0 percent in the year-ago second quarter.

"While we recently turned less positive on homebuilding stocks, we continue to expect Toll Brothers to outperform its peers from both a fundamental and stock performance perspective," Puryear said in a note to clients. He rates the stock as "outperform" with a $45 price target."

[rickg777]

Not using stops may be fine for someone with unlimited trading $$$, but not locking in profits or at least putting in a stop at break even after having a gain that is projected before you get into the trade, is taking unnecessary risks and creating dead $$$ positions that tie up capital. You have to have a plan that takes into account where your stop loss goes, where your break even point is, and what your goals are, before you buy.
I totally agree with "PPC", Perserve Precious Capital, and putting it to work where it'll do most. NEVER let a winner turn into a loser. If you're really in love with the stock you can get back in later when you get the buy signal, or look for some others. There's only about 7,500 other choices, otherwise you can be stubborn and hold on forever, all the way down. You can't be afraid to take a small loss and must look forward to making it back, and then some, on the next trade.

[mrmarket]

Not using stops may be fine for someone with unlimited trading $$$, but not locking in profits or at least putting in a stop at break even after having a gain that is projected before you get into the trade, is taking unnecessary risks and creating dead $$$ positions that tie up capital. You have to have a plan that takes into account where your stop loss goes, where your break even point is, and what your goals are, before you buy.
I totally agree with "PPC", Perserve Precious Capital, and putting it to work where it'll do most. NEVER let a winner turn into a loser. If you're really in love with the stock you can get back in later when you get the buy signal, or look for some others. There's only about 7,500 other choices, otherwise you can be stubborn and hold on forever, all the way down. You can't be afraid to take a small loss and must look forward to making it back, and then some, on the next trade.

I have never used a stop loss. I have beaten the market each and every year for the last 14 years. Next question?