Stenzrob's specials

Bought VDSI at $21.04.

50% cut on 2 cent miss is overdone, as a result it's had three analyst upgrades in the last 2 weeks.
It will be a long time before it gets back to $44, but from here it's not far to $25, which would be almost 20%.

I decided to stop using my 52 week high momentum method while the market is in correction and instead am looking at bargains, like CRDN and VDSI. Each has technical features that also may be signalling a reversal (or could just be a trap!).

just sold LUNA at $7.98. (+10.2% from buy on 10/31)

Why?
Got in it for the momentum, sat through some underwater time, was lucky enough for it to move back up nicely. I was beginning to really like the company, etc. and to think about future potential ... in other words, I was falling in love with it, and that wasn't why I bought it.

Catch a falling knife

Just bought some CRDN at $42.10.

It has done nothing but go straight down for about a month now, from $75 to here. Volume today is particularly high, but the intraday showed some strong volume buying at the bottom. This suggests to me a combination of capitulation and institutions stepping in. Also, the company has announced today an update call for next week, the outline of topics all sounded positive - reiteration, and positive news on several fronts.

I have a mixed history with this stock.
Bought this on 12/20/05 for 43.75, and sold on 2/3/06 for 56.75. (+29.7%)
Bought again on 2/6/06 for 52.40, and sold on 7/6/06 for 54.63. (+4.3%)
Bought again on 7/19/06 for 49.00, and sold on 9/1/06 for 44.43. (-9.3%)
Bought again on 12/5/06 for 56.55, and sold on 3/1/07 for 51.80. (-8.4%)

Then I sat out of it while it ran to over $80 and back down almost to $40.

... LUNA is working on a symmetrical triangle. If it breaks above $7.10, targets $9.50. If if falls below $5.50, targets $3.50. ...

Newborn, I hope you're right. $9.50 would be nice. LUNA broke above 7.10 this morning to new 52 wk high, finally getting the kind of response that it should to the qtr report from 11/8. Volume is looking pretty good for this time of day, too.

LUNA: what is this company about? And what is YOUR target for it? Nice move today, too. Congrats. I thought about buying some the other day at $5.05 but didn't. I like the chart . . . .

LUNA is tied in close with developments at University of Virginia, their job is to commercialize technologies. They recently got FDA clearance for an ultrasound-based instrument that measures air bubbles and clots in the bypass line during cardio surgery, and have partnered with a bigger company to market and distribute. They also have an agreement with Intuitive Surgical to develop ultrasound-based navigation probes for ISRG's instruments. They have patents in nanotech also, I'm expecting an announcement about a partnership with some pharma biggie for an improved MRI contrast agent. They also have gov't r&d contracts. Their last qtr report highlights the fact that a rapidly growing percentage of their revenues are coming from product and license revenues, as opposed to gov't grants.

Each HUGE spike on the chart in the last 6 months correlates to an announcement or something - May=FDA clearance, June=ISRG deal, July=ISRG qtr report. After each spike, it settled back quite a bit. What I find interesting is that the advance on a bit more sustained volume in late October doesn't correlate to anything. Somebody has just been buying. It will be interesting to see institutional ownership as reported in January for the quarter ending 12/31.

With all the irons they have in the fire, any of which could hit bigtime, their price/sales at just over 2 is way too low. My target is somewhere around $20, but I'll see how things develop. If it spikes 35 to 50% on a press release, I'll jump out and look for another opportunity to get back in.

[New-born baby]

RIMM looking vulnerable these days . . . .

[New-born baby]

Here's a play for you:
SHORT the CAT at current price, $70.22
SELL the NOV $70 PUT for $0.70.
IF CAT is below $70 by Friday close, you make $92.
IF CAT is above $70 by Friday close, CAT still has target of $60.

[New-born baby]

Thanks newborn. Are these targets based on point&figure charts (which I simply do not understand), or what?
Clearly, some of your targets sound good to me, others not so good.

LUNA will spike on the next big news, if it doesn't just run away first due to mounting interest.

targets based on Dow Theory and/or Point and Figure charts. Chas. Dow invented both, so they are not so very different, although they do sometimes differ in targets.

LUNA: what is this company about? And what is YOUR target for it? Nice move today, too. Congrats. I thought about buying some the other day at $5.05 but didn't. I like the chart . . . .

AOB has a target of $7.50.
LUNA is working on a symmetrical triangle. If it breaks above $7.10, targets $9.50. If if falls below $5.50, targets $3.50.
SIGM: a move above $60 points to $68.50; a move below $52.50 points to $45.00
ININ: targets $47.00

Thanks newborn. Are these targets based on point&figure charts (which I simply do not understand), or what?
Clearly, some of your targets sound good to me, others not so good.

LUNA will spike on the next big news, if it doesn't just run away first due to mounting interest.

[New-born baby]

nasdaq: 11/6=2825, 11/14=2678, (-5.2%)

Current/buy long positions:
LUNA 6.10/7.24 (-15.7%)
ININ 25.66/27.00 (-4.9%)
SIGM 59.28/60.00 (-1.2%)
AOB 12.20/12.65 (-3.6%)

Sold AVAV today for $24.85 (+3.28%)
Still like the company, but the trend just does not look right.

LUNA hasn't worked out, yet.
Not ready to take the loss, yet, either.

I have no stop loss orders entered for any of these.

AOB has a target of $7.50.
LUNA is working on a symmetrical triangle. If it breaks above $7.10, targets $9.50. If if falls below $5.50, targets $3.50.
SIGM: a move above $60 points to $68.50; a move below $52.50 points to $45.00
ININ: targets $47.00

AVAV trend

nasdaq: 11/6=2825, 11/14=2678, (-5.2%)

Current/buy long positions:
LUNA 6.10/7.24 (-15.7%)
ININ 25.66/27.00 (-4.9%)
SIGM 59.28/60.00 (-1.2%)
AOB 12.20/12.65 (-3.6%)

Sold AVAV today for $24.85 (+3.28%)
Still like the company, but the trend just does not look right.

LUNA hasn't worked out, yet.
Not ready to take the loss, yet, either.

I have no stop loss orders entered for any of these.

This was not the reaction to LUNA's report that I was looking for.

LUNA report after the close today looked good to me, I'm glad I have held this one through a bit of paper pain.

46% revenue growth, increasing gross margins, decreasing burn (loss).
Beat estimates/guidance by a small amount, and upped guidance for next quarter. This company IPO'd in June 2006 at $6, was down to half of that, then started announcing deals. Several large volume spikes and a nice run later, it finally passed the IPO price a few weeks ago, has tested that level and is now poised to make a run, I think. This stock is pretty volatile and a bit more thinly traded than I usually like, so I don't plan to use any auto stop.

LUNA has held up well over the last few days of market nastiness, and was up slightly in the after hours after the report.

Into AOB again at $12.65.

Current long positions:
LUNA $7.24 (-9.3% at $6.57)
AVAV $24.06 (+2.5% at $24.67)
ININ $27.00 (-0.7% at $26.82)
SIGM $60.00 (-0.3% at $59.80)
AOB $12.65