Stenzrob's specials

Another interesting ETF, for those who may think that the Chinese market is in a bubble
- FXP: UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25

ProShares also has ETF's that short or ultrashort other international indices.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/new-etf-lets-investors-profit/story.aspx?guid=%7B225CDEB1%2DACBD%2D4A6D%2D84CD%2DADF393307D9F%7D&dist=TQP_Mod_mktwN

Stenz,
(EMKR) Now 11.70. I must have not read your thread closely. EMKR was on my hot list. If it made the earnings it was cash in the bank. Lucky for me it was only a POTW loss. I've learned that holding a stock for an expected development usually backfires.

-----------billyjoe

As it turns out, I could have gotten out higher for about half the day today. The late filing that prompted me to bail out probably had much less effect then the general market mood. The general market mood has been good to my QID, though, currently up 5.8%. I adjusted my QID stop up to $39.50, so if it triggers, I'll only be up 2.5% on it.

I should say that it serves you right for not reading my thread more closely.

[skiracer]

Stenz,
Now 11.70. I must have not read your thread closely. EMKR was on my hot list. If it made the earnings it was cash in the bank. Lucky for me it was only a POTW loss. I've learned that holding a stock for an expected development usually backfires.

-----------billyjoe

It's gambling Billyjoe.

[billyjoe]

Now under $12 after hours.
Dodged a bullet that time!

Stenz,
Now 11.70. I must have not read your thread closely. EMKR was on my hot list. If it made the earnings it was cash in the bank. Lucky for me it was only a POTW loss. I've learned that holding a stock for an expected development usually backfires.

-----------billyjoe

update

Currently holding QID, WATG, CYBS.

QID position is profitable so far, 39.5x/38.55, but there's no telling what kind of news or whatever may turn the ship around, so I set a stop at 39.10 for today. I figure that as long as the market is headed down, I can stay in this, and if my stop is triggered, it might be time to go long in one of the stocks on my list.

WATG is about -10%, CYBS about -12% from my buys.
WATG is thinly traded, was whacked by news of private placement, but I believe it is still way undervalued, so I'm holding it with no stop and no plan to set a stop.
CYBS tried a breakout and failed and is now testing the 50 day, but pullback has been on light volume, so I am also holding this. No stop set yet, but I am looking at the chart to see where a breakdown might lead to likely further losses. This is not so undervalued as to warrant holding through hell or high water.

dumped this as fast as I could for $12.50 after hours before everyone found out about it. Snooze -> lose.

Now under $12 after hours.
Dodged a bullet that time!

... EMKR announced today that they will report results on Monday, before the open, with the conference call a day later. I've decided to hold the position through the report. Wish me luck.

This news just came across the wire -
"Emcore to delay 10-k for fiscal year in NT 10-k
5:17 PM EST December 14, 2007"

So, I dumped this as fast as I could for $12.50 after hours before everyone found out about it. Snooze -> lose.

3 things I though I'd mention:

1. EMKR announced today that they will report results on Monday, before the open, with the conference call a day later. I've decided to hold the position through the report. Wish me luck.

2. Ran across an interesting book excerpt about wall street analysts.

http://www.forbes.com/2007/12/10/stocks-mcclellan-bull-books_1211bookexcerpt.html

The underperformance of analyst picks is mind-boggling.

3. Also ran across an interesting ETF for alternative energy today: PBW. Holds stocks of companies involved in solar, batteries, etc.

[skiracer]

When trading for the short term (swing trades of 2/3 to 7/10 days I think there must be an identifiable trend, whether it be an uptrend or downtrend, in place and recognizable before you can make a trade and expect it to perform as expected based on some techinical analysis off a chart or a fundamental characteristic like increased sales or earnings. I stay out of the markets and trades when I cannot make an identifiable determination. It then becomes gambling to me which I don't want to do when trading. I want to know as closely as possible that what I expect to happen will have a good chance and an edge for me in happening the way I expect it to. There is no edge in forcing the issue in markets where the trend is unidentifiable.
I think the INDU is moving into a 5th wave up right here and that would be good for longside trades and the chances of EMKR following the market up right here. Good luck.

Bought EMKR for $12.35.
Would probably have bought lower, closer to the open, but had non-stop meetings from 8:30 to 11:30.
Trading must generate lots more cash before I can give up the day job.

Good stuff about EMKR here:

http://www.stockhouse.ca/mediascan/news.asp?newsid=9799004

Bought QID at $38.55. Tried this once before with bad results, wanted to give it another try.

I think that between inflationary pressure and the subprime mess, a recession is likely, and the market will be headed generally down for a quarter, maybe two - hence the QID position.

Meanwhile, some stocks will manage to swim against the current, and I'm going to try to locate them.

Current holdings:
Fast account - EMKR (12.35)
Slow account - QID (38.55), WATG (10.55), CYBS (17.3)

Bought CYBS for $17.38

Bought EMKR for $12.35.
Would probably have bought lower, closer to the open, but had non-stop meetings from 8:30 to 11:30.
Trading must generate lots more cash before I can give up the day job.

I think it is a very volitaile market right now and not good for trading. You have no idea which way it is going go with no definite trend to gauge your trades.

Absolutely, ski. I have no problem sitting in cash while a new trend develops, but I am also looking at a few candidates to trade anyway. Will continue to use stops to protect myself.

Looking at incy, ansr, resp, hrbn, emkr, oxps, rsti. These are all recent new highs, and meet my minimum volume requirements. I know almost nothing about any of them.

[skiracer]

I think it is a very volitaile market right now and not good for trading. You have no idea which way it is going go with no definite trend to gauge your trades.