Stenzrob's specials

Don't feel too bad...I sold JRJC for pocket change last week

I sold DECK for a LOSS at $20 in October 2005.
Doh!

[IIC]

I would like to thank the analyst who downgraded VDSI, since after my uncharacteristically timely decision to sell ... it came back, broke out and appeared to be running away without me.

Don't feel too bad...I sold JRJC for pocket change last week

[skiracer]

Thanks very much ski and doug, for your observations on BLUD.

In any case, today sees it with a slight gap open, setting new all-time highs and trading close to average daily volume in the first ten minutes of trading. I would call this a breakout.

that's all that counts Stenz. hope it holds the move and good luck with the trade.

Sold my VDSI position today at $31.40.
The VDSI chart looks like a climax peak, just as the market is getting really volatile.

I would like to thank the analyst who downgraded VDSI, since after my uncharacteristically timely decision to sell ... it came back, broke out and appeared to be running away without me.

The reason that jumped right out at me that it was not a "Classic" is that the "acknowlegeables" say the handle should be at least 5 days

No time to annotate a chart right now, but I was looking at the cup from 4/16/07 to 9/13-14/07, and handle 9/14 to 9/20.

[IIC]

Thanks very much ski and doug, for your observations on BLUD.

In any case, today sees it with a slight gap open, setting new all-time highs and trading close to average daily volume in the first ten minutes of trading. I would call this a breakout.

The reason that jumped right out at me that it was not a "Classic" is that the "acknowlegeables" say the handle should be at least 5 days

Thanks very much ski and doug, for your observations on BLUD.

In any case, today sees it with a slight gap open, setting new all-time highs and trading close to average daily volume in the first ten minutes of trading. I would call this a breakout.

[skiracer]

BLUD...Is it a CwH? Well, if you want Ski's "Acknowledgeable Source" Definition....NO it is not....Although if it breaks out I wouldn't be surprised to see them claim it b/o from a CwH.

You want the Mr. Breakout opinion...YES it is.

Geez...I would sure like to know what the percentage of breakouts is from the Acknowledgeable Source....In all my years of following this pattern (Over 35) I've never seen the percentage of breakouts number.

i think if you take a look at Bulkowski's book on chart patterns he gives a percentage rating for every type of chart pattern he defines. i'm pretty sure that cup and handle patterns are included in there as are numerous other patterns that are either bullish or bearish. his explanation is that if the chart pattern in question performs close to what he describes as reliable or close to what he feels is correct then the percentage he quotes is quite reliable. but the patterns have to be close to what he defines. I consider Bulkowski a reliable source. I don't consider you or your definition of what you describe as a cup and handle formation reliable for trading purposes. Bulkowski has monitored thousands of charts and recurring patterns and has written a book, which many consider the defining source for chart patterns, that goes into great depth describing what he has found to be patterns that will perform a specific way a reliable percentage of the time. but you already know that.
i really have no problem with you or anyone else adjusting what has been accepted as the true definition of any specific pattern to suit their plan or strategy. i guess if they work for you and everyone who listens to your take and uses those parameters then the proof is in the success of the trades. it is as simple as that. i find it suprising how many people will accept what you post here as the definition of the pattern because that is as far as they go. they're either lazy or don't know how to look for other info. i think there should always be two sides to look at regarding any of this.

[IIC]

BLUD...Is it a CwH? Well, if you want Ski's "Acknowledgeable Source" Definition....NO it is not....Although if it breaks out I wouldn't be surprised to see them claim it b/o from a CwH.

You want the Mr. Breakout opinion...YES it is.

Geez...I would sure like to know what the percentage of breakouts is from the Acknowledgeable Source....In all my years of following this pattern (Over 35) I've never seen the percentage of breakouts number.

[skiracer]

Into BLUD again today at $35.60.
Does this look like a cup/handle to anyone?

only in answer to your question regarding is this a cup and handle pattern. definitely fits the shape and look of a double bottom cup. I think it should be longer in length in forming the cup from side to side. a minimum of 8-10 weeks duration in forming the cup. the handle should be much more gradual and gently sloping downward rather than as steep a slope and the best case scenario would be to slope gently downward on diminishing or lessening volume. the reliability of the pattern performing as it should percentage wise relys mainly on how close it is to the definition of what compromises a cup and handle pattern by some acknowledgeable source. everyone has their own opinions and some work and others don't. there is a mathematical percentage of times that it should breakout if it fits the true definition. if you play percentages, like lefties will be more successful against right handed pitchers or visa versa or 60% of all walked batters will eventually score, then you will appreciate the percentage of reliability when it fits the true definition.

Into BLUD again today at $35.60.
Does this look like a cup/handle to anyone?

...sold AOB today. It looked like it was going to take a bit of a rest, so I was out at $10.29. That was about a 9.5% gain in about a week.

Back into AOB at $10.13. PEG is 0.32, ROE over 20%. Stocks that I find like this I often mess up on the timing, but can go on to post very large gains.

I may have outclevered myself on OMCL, just as described in the prior post. I sold at the top of the range just as it was breaking out of the range. Waiting to see if it will settle back down again.

In the meantime, picked up some of an old holding again - PTEN. This one always looked undervalued to me, and oilfield service is picking up again. Chart looks like a nice recovery pattern, with some heavy volume in the turnaround. Bought this at $22.90 today.

Also sold DRAX today for a small profit. At the end of the day, it ran up to $5.30 and I sold it at $5.29. A little more than 1% gain from my buy at $5.23.

Also sold AOB today. It looked like it was going to take a bit of a rest, so I was out at $10.29. That was about a 9.5% gain in about a week.

That leaves me with only PTEN (the resurgent oilfield service) and SCLD (dark horse).

Why was I so quick to sell and take profits today? ... For such a big gain, volume was low on the exchanges. Despite such a big gain for the day, most of the indexes are coming up to their 50 day averages. It's at least as likely as not that the indexes (and most stocks) will be down tomorrow, and I might have an opportunity to reload the same stocks again for less.

Back in again on Friday at $24.04. While I am quite happy to keep netting some little gains and reduce my purchase price, I am also expecting (hoping?) this one to make a move up sometime soon, and I don't want to be out of it when it does. The chart looks good for a nice move up, IMHO.

And right back out again at $24.95. Another short term 3.79% gain.

The problem with trading a stock that appears to be in a trading range is that if I buy near the bottom of the range and sell near the top of the range, then I could be caught out of the stock when it finally breaks to the upside (not too bad), or stuck in it if it breaks to the downside (undesirable). On the other hand, I have made between 5 and 6% gain on this one stock while it has, so far, gone up less than half of that since my original buy.

Executed a few small flips on OMCL the last few days, selling at $24.55 on Tuesday, buying it back again at $24.24 on Wednesday, and sold again today at $24.49. I was bored.

The difference is enough to cover commissions plus the short term cap gains tax, and I sometimes get back in just a smidge cheaper.

Each in/out trade has been for only 1%. But, the original buy was at $24.30, and it closed today at $24.36 (+0.25%). Meanwhile, my two trades have netted +2%.

Back in again on Friday at $24.04. While I am quite happy to keep netting some little gains and reduce my purchase price, I am also expecting (hoping?) this one to make a move up sometime soon, and I don't want to be out of it when it does. The chart looks good for a nice move up, IMHO.