Stenzrob's specials

I was holding VDSI, BLUD and AEIS as they all reported recently.
AEIS disappointed, but the other two did nicely enough.

I shoulda' dumped AEIS as soon as they reported, finally got around to it today.

Plan to hold the other two for at least another quarter. Also still holding SCLD.

...Also bought into SCLD again.

Something's going on here.
Don't know what, exactly, but I like it.

... bought into SCLD again. Their last quarters report showed on track with turnaround plan under new management, and today they announced a new secure server for blackberry mail. At current prices, it's selling for less than revenue.

This has worked out well so far.

Bought some BLUD as it started to move this morning, then saw that the FDA approved their new device.

Also bought into SCLD again. Their last quarters report showed on track with turnaround plan under new management, and today they announced a new secure server for blackberry mail. At current prices, it's selling for less than revenue.

Just bought some VDSI again, also, at $23.09.
It seems to be breaking out yet again.

My adventure in the inverse fund was interesting. I was short the market during one of the best few months of all time. Bailed out of that a little while ago and have been dabbling in a few small companies.

I bought some AEIS this morning. Had owned this earlier, and sold at a slight loss to buy the QID inverse index after 2/27 when it looked like the china syndrome would cause a meltdown.

Just before noon today, there was a Forbes article posted that mentions AEIS.

http://www.forbes.com/2007/06/01/movil-transocean-energy-pf-ii-in_mr_0601watch_inl.html?partner=yahootix

"Richard Moroney, editor of Dow Theory Forecasts, says that if you want to beat the market for the rest of 2007, Advanced Energy Industries (nasdaq: AEIS - news - people ) is his favorite pick. Advanced Energy has got a hand in several tech trends. The Fort Collins, Colo., company's power conversion and control systems wire flat-panel displays, solar cells and semiconductors. Analysts are looking for 20.3% annual long-term earnings growth, and Advanced Energy stock trades for just 12.4 times trailing earnings.

"He says a key profit driver is that the company's been lowering costs by moving its production to China; it recently announced that it would shutter a German facility to shift even more to the Far East. Moroney, who picks investments with a proprietary "Quadrix" system that ranks stocks based on growth, value and momentum, also notes that the company trades at a 12% discount on forward earnings to the rest of the semiconductor industry. "

[peanuts]

didja get the FTEK at $22?

I see FTK is exploding today, and DWSN is hanging in there as well.

[peanuts]

I mistakenly thought you were once an owner of some FTK stock, so that's why I brought it up. It was the ticker resemblance to FTEK that got me. It might be rolling over, or might be breaking out to new highs. I guess time will tell.

It's not a bad company, though. I do own a few shares that I picked up recently. I'm thinking of switching the funds to DWSN if the breakout doesn't happen with FTK. But even if it does, I wouldn't mind owning some DWSN on a bigger pullback, either.

Hey Stenz,

Two winnas in one post! How's that for luck?

My TA view on FTEK looks like this is a great place for an entry at $22:

[IIC]

Right now QID is 3x the inverse NDX ...Could sentiment be negative?

[IIC]

I'm seeing about 1.5X over that time period as well.

I'm curious, though, about what you said earlier that "the real mover on these types have to do with supply and demand of the ETF's themselves". Are you saying that if there is demand for QID, for example, this will force up the price of QID, regardless of whether the index that it's designed to mirror moves?

Yes...exactly...if nobody wants to buy the shares then the price either goes down or if the sellers won't budge, it doesn't trade. Mirroring is only a goal. Same thing for the Q's themselves, although the Q's fund is much simpler...I've seen the Q's green and the Naz 100 red or vice-versa periodically but over the long run they are very close.

Let's take The RUT and its ETF (non-ultra) tracker, IWM. Today the RUT was down .81% but IWM was only down .49%. Over 3 years the RUT is up a little more %-wise than IWM. Happens a lot...especially when you see the bid/ask on a lo vol ETF like SDD...and they are not close to the last trade...sometimes you have a rather long wait.

As far as me...I've only been trading QLD and QID since October...have not traded the other Ultras but I watch some of 'em.

Unfortunately...I'm real busy right now, but I took a quick comparison view of the charts from July 17th through today:

Naz 100 +21%

QID -31%

QLD +32%

So, it appears that the movement has only been 1.5x instead of the targeted 2x. However, I believe the charts I was looking at do not take into account the $5.00+ QLD distribution made in December...If they don't then QLD is actually up closer to 40%.

I'm seeing about 1.5X over that time period as well.

I'm curious, though, about what you said earlier that "the real mover on these types have to do with supply and demand of the ETF's themselves". Are you saying that if there is demand for QID, for example, this will force up the price of QID, regardless of whether the index that it's designed to mirror moves?

[IIC]

Unfortunately...I'm real busy right now, but I took a quick comparison view of the charts from July 17th through today:

Naz 100 +21%

QID -31%

QLD +32%

So, it appears that the movement has only been 1.5x instead of the targeted 2x. However, I believe the charts I was looking at do not take into account the $5.00+ QLD distribution made in December...If they don't then QLD is actually up closer to 40%.

[IIC]

My take:

The Ultra's such as QLD and QID "Attempt" to match 2x the Naz 100 using sophisticated methods that I never bothered to try to figure out...But and this is a BIG but...Unlike the Naz 100 which merely reflects a weighted move of all the 100 stocks, the real mover on these types have to do with supply and demand of the ETF's themselves...Sentiment can play a part in interest either way on these.

Take a look at the Ultra ETF's that have not developed much volume yet...they can be way off.

And actually I have seen many times intraday where both the QLD and QID are both red or green.

I believe that if all goes well at Proshares you will see that the QID and QLD will be real close to 2x over the intermediate and longer terms.

Take a look at this chart...looks pretty close to me:

Thanks river. I'm really not sure what to read into volume variations in this, since as I understand it, the performance is supposed to be independent of activity in the shares. Rather than watch technicals for the ETF itself, I think it's better to study the technicals for the index it (inverely) tracks while standing on my head. Or, while doing this:

By the way, this is not me - my chest is hairier but less lumpy.

[riverbabe]

Qid

I knew I read something about QID today, so went back and found it:

"The ProShares Ultra Short QQQ (QID - commentary - Cramer's Take) trades inversely to the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on a 2:1 ratio. This ETF has been trading in a sideways channel from late November through February. But the late-February breakout did not follow through. Instead, it fell back into the trading channel. However, the last couple of days of strength might mark the end of the pullback. If you're long, try setting a tight stop on this."