Stenzrob's specials

VTIV - new rally coming

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=vtiv,uu[h,a]waolyiay[de][pc10!c50!f] [vc60][iLa12,26,9!Lp14,3,3]&pref=G

VTIV has quietly sneaked back above the 10 week moving average, on below average volume.

Note that this same pattern occured in late September 2004 and July 2005. In each of those previous cases, it went on to new highs a few months later.

GO GIGM........ Up over 72.89% AND, I feel there is more to come. I just hope that nothing slows them down. Marlin

There was what, like a 2 year delay between the initial surge and the current follow through? I'm not in that one anymore in real life, but there is a chunk of it helping my marketocracy fund. They appear to have done a nice job of moving from old-school record stores to online media distribution and now also online gambling. Congrats on scoring big on this one, MEA.

I was in Vorhees a couple of months ago for my nephew's bar mitzvah. Stayed at a hotel in Cherry Hill.

How long have you lived in Cherry Hill? My brother lives in Vorhees.

About 6 years. I'm pretty much at the Voorhees end of Cherry Hill, not very close to Camden.

[MEA_1956]

GO GIGM........ Up over 72.89% AND, I feel there is more to come. I just hope that nothing slows them down. Marlin

How long have you lived in Cherry Hill? My brother lives in Vorhees.

CRDN a keeper

CRDN contract announced. $70M worth of body armor side plates, to be delivered over just a few quarters. I suspect more will be coming.

After jumping on this news, there was a contract awarded to DHB the next day, and CRDN fell back for a day, only to advance strongly again to another new high today. I'm up almost 25% since buying at $43.75 in October, and that's after screwing up by successfully buying the bottom at $22, only to sell at $30 on a pop, thinking I could get back in cheaper on a retrace that never happened. Scored +36% gain from near the bottom, and another +24% currently, even with missing out from $30 to $43.75 (another 46%).

Don't know how much further this will just keep going, but consider this: with 5 analysts covering, earnings are projected to be +54% in FY'05, +38.8% in FY'06 and +40% annually for the next 5 years, return on equity is 26%, yet the trailing PE is only 33. If they only hit the projections, and the PE stays the same, the stock price could just follow the earnings gains at 40% per year, or about $70 by January 2007 and $100 by January 2008. Add to that the fact that the PE could be justified to be even higher.

Unless they miss the estimates or run up too fast and get overvalued, I see no reason to sell this one.

Saw a great bumper sticker yesterday:
I child-proofed my house,
but they STILL get in !

Was just checking my intermittently managed marketocracy fund today, turns out it was only slightly down in the face of a nasdaq meltdown. Mostly due to CRDN, but also GIGM, ESCL and MIPS were all up today. But then I got to looking at info available about some of the top performing funds for long periods of time, and I noticed something ... high turnover. This is more fuel to the argument that buy-and-hold just doesn't do it.

Check my public page and these other two. One could look further at some of the other top performing funds and maybe reach a conclusion.

http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/ps/FundPublicPage/source=NkMaBbHbDpAnOfOlMaKiAbDe

http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/ps/FundPublicPage/source=DoPiAlBbDlAmIgAmMaKiAbBi

http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/ps/FundPublicPage/source=OgHeBbCeDoGgFaIhMaKiAbDc

CRDN contract announced. $70M worth of body armor side plates, to be delivered over just a few quarters. I suspect more will be coming.

Q: What did the Zen Master say to the hot dog vendor?
A: Make me one with everything.

FYI - I jumped out of SPIL after hours today. I was down about 7% on the position, which was fine. Poorly timed buy, perhaps, (see "knife, falling") but looked like it was turning around today, up on decent volume in the face of down market. But, I bailed out based on the expectation that market reaction to INTC results will hurt everything semi related.

Saved a few dollars there.
VTIV continues slow climb.
COGT announced follow-on orders.
Nasdaq in high volume decline, blood in the streets indeed.

FYI - I jumped out of SPIL after hours today. I was down about 7% on the position, which was fine. Poorly timed buy, perhaps, (see "knife, falling") but looked like it was turning around today, up on decent volume in the face of down market. But, I bailed out based on the expectation that market reaction to INTC results will hurt everything semi related.

This strategy will work just as well when you have a pile of money. Simply buy more stocks, all of which will uptrend for a year, then sell. Or you could rotate, buying one each month that will uptrend for a year and sell. So now, if you would be so lind as to let me in on identifying the stocks that will keep an uptrend for a year, we can be friends.

this is where I have a bit of problem....

RIO was a tough call IMO...It looked good...then it didn't...then it did.

I sold CRDN today in the 49.90's...Not that I don't like it...but I paid 45.02 a couple weeks ago with a target of 50...close enough as I did not like the market look last night...IIC

I believe CRDN could very well be a monster. See Motley Fool article posted today about it. I also have made a few posts on the Yahoo CRDN board. One was about story I heard on NPR this morning, this same NPR story was mentioned in the fool article. I owned it much lower, sold for a good profit, watched it continue to climb, got in again recently at $44. Beginning to wish I had more of that and less of VTIV.

... the best way to go for now is Pick a stock that will keep the uptrend for a yr. then Sell....

This strategy will work just as well when you have a pile of money. Simply buy more stocks, all of which will uptrend for a year, then sell. Or you could rotate, buying one each month that will uptrend for a year and sell. So now, if you would be so lind as to let me in on identifying the stocks that will keep an uptrend for a year, we can be friends.