Stenzrob's specials

[IIC]

Just found an interesting page at marketwatch:

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/industry/

This shows which industriy sectors are doing best and worst over a time period that you can select. For three months, there are some top performing industries that didn't surprise me, like precious metals, coal, mining, etc. The one that surprised me a bit, though, was Home Construction Index, up 36.8% in the last 3 months.

Clicking through to the components of the index, all the usual names are there - Pulte, Horton, Hovnanian, Ryland - all up 40% or more in the last 3 months.

Could it be that this is the time to be buying homebuilders? If the market looks 6 months out as it has been said, then all the news out right now about continuing price drops and slow sales could be signalling the bottom for the homebuilders. I gotta' go look at some numbers, but if anybody is reading this and thinks that now is the time to be buying the homebuilders, I'd like to hear from you.

I wouldn't touch a homebuilder

Industry performance

Just found an interesting page at marketwatch:

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/industry/

This shows which industriy sectors are doing best and worst over a time period that you can select. For three months, there are some top performing industries that didn't surprise me, like precious metals, coal, mining, etc. The one that surprised me a bit, though, was Home Construction Index, up 36.8% in the last 3 months.

Clicking through to the components of the index, all the usual names are there - Pulte, Horton, Hovnanian, Ryland - all up 40% or more in the last 3 months.

Could it be that this is the time to be buying homebuilders? If the market looks 6 months out as it has been said, then all the news out right now about continuing price drops and slow sales could be signalling the bottom for the homebuilders. I gotta' go look at some numbers, but if anybody is reading this and thinks that now is the time to be buying the homebuilders, I'd like to hear from you.

[skiracer]

Skiracer, would you hold GEHL thur earning u know they had a negative surprise last earnings. Sirtuck

their overall estimates are higher than last qtr and last year peaking in the qtr ending this june and decreasing after that thru 2008 but still higher than last year. estimates for 2009 are higher than 2008.
to be honest it was a bottom play off the developing cup base formation. i like to catch them there. i was in earlier about 5-6 wks ago and got stopped out. was premature and to early. waited for a re-entry until after it broke thru it's 50 sma. re-entered yesterday at 18.20 after it broke thru the 50. clear sailing until the 100 sma as far as i can see on the daily which is at 22.46 and corresponds almost exactly with the top of the left side of the cup base. that's my target area 22 -22.50 level where i would expect the handle to start forming. that would be my exit point anyway because no sense holding in front of the handle and the drop accompanying that.
i'm going to be watching it closely between now and then. to answer you question about holding thru earnings. not sure which will come first. reaching the 100 sma at 22 and my target or the earnings report. i don't think i would hold thru earning if i'm close to the target level. if i get another point or two between now and then i would be happy with the trade. if it gets that far and the earnings report is decent and doesn't screw things up i would wait for the handle to form and then look to catch the breakout. alot would have to fall into place.

I've been raising a little cash yesterday and today in anticipation of an opportunity to jump into QID again for another leg down in the indexes. Hence the dumping of WATG, COIN and SDTH. Still holding a small position in NTWK, plan to be patient with it, and some QMAR until it gets within 5% of the acquisition algebra. The EXAC bought today doesn't seem to follow the overall market.
Anyway, the point is, I'm looking for the market to take another beating soon, and I wanted to raise cash a few days early if possible, so there won't be any trading restrictions on it.

This is a nasdaq chart that I marked up about a week ago.
The idea here is that the index is forming a symmetrical triangle with likelihood of a break to the downside once everyone realizes that it's not going to rally.

Skiracer, would you hold GEHL thur earning u know they had a negative surprise last earnings. Sirtuck

sirtuck, I don't know about ski, but I wouldn't. Even if they meet, estimates look to be for steadily decreasing revenue and earnings.

[sirtuck]

Gehl

Skiracer, would you hold GEHL thur earning u know they had a negative surprise last earnings. Sirtuck

Bought some WATG today at 9.43.
Tried to get some for 9.20, but "they" started playing games with me.

Dumped this at $9.45 for fractional gain before commissions.
Just seems to be going nowhere and volume is drying up.

Bought some EXAC at $26.90.

[skiracer]

Oop's...my 00000 key got stuck

i know the feeling. i suffer from the same keyboard malfunction at times.

[IIC]

if over 30,000,000 are viewing your list every week you should be actively marketing it as a subscription service. 1000 out of 30,000,000 at $20-25 a month would make you comfortable. half that would be a big plus to your yearly income. that's a big number Doug. are you absolutely sure of that 30,000,000?

Oop's...my 00000 key got stuck

[skiracer]

Geez...Over 30,000,000 investors looking at the list each week...and you missed it...I'm hurt

Actually, I know ahead of time which ones will be gone or have major changes in the ranking...But it is not a paying job so I don't post nightly updates

if over 30,000,000 are viewing your list every week you should be actively marketing it as a subscription service. 1000 out of 30,000,000 at $20-25 a month would make you comfortable. half that would be a big plus to your yearly income. that's a big number Doug. are you absolutely sure of that 30,000,000?

[IIC]

No problem, Doug. I wasn't looking at the list.

Geez...Over 30,000,000 investors looking at the list each week...and you missed it...I'm hurt

Actually, I know ahead of time which ones will be gone or have major changes in the ranking...But it is not a paying job so I don't post nightly updates

COIN is a day traders dream altho I've only traded it once.

This makes twice for me. I really don't want to get stuck on the wrong side of this one.

SDTH...#1 on the IIC 100 to off the list...Actually, I knew that would happen and I probably should've posted that altho it probably wouldn't have made a difference...Sorry about that if you were looking at the list

No problem, Doug. I wasn't looking at the list.

[IIC]

Out of COIN at $12.90. (+29.0%)
Out of SDTH at $11.22. (-20.9%)

COIN is a day traders dream altho I've only traded it once.

SDTH...#1 on the IIC 100 to off the list...Actually, I knew that would happen and I probably should've posted that altho it probably wouldn't have made a difference...Sorry about that if you were looking at the list

Due probably partially to being pissed about the option repricing, I dumped SIGM this morning at $42.40 for a 7.8% loss from my buy point at $46. At the time, it looked like the market was just bouncing from the low open, and for all I could tell, everything including SIGM would fizzle and run down. This didn't turn out to be the case, and SIGM is now back up nicely to around $45.50. You know what, though? I'm still glad to be out of it, because I now do not trust the execs to act in the best interests of the shareholders.

SIGM execs now claiming they are having to sell because there is a narrow window between option vesting and expiring. I have not read all the details of the SEC filings, etc., but this just smells to me. Glad that I dumped this for that reason, and also that it's now down to around $30.