Stenzrob's specials

[tx_damnyankee0]

beef on weck

Sorry guys...no stock gems to talk about here are the moment.....just wishing for a beef on weck. I lived in Hamburg.....North Boston area. My best friend owns a restaurant in West Seneca.......I miss the area.

[carribean_mike]

Stenzrob, I bailed a week ago. How would you play it now - if you didn't have a position. On the bright side I did make a few bucks before I dumped it.

thanks

[stenzrob]

Bailed before being told to do so

Stenzrob, I bailed a week ago. How would you play it now - if you didn't have a position. On the bright side I did make a few bucks before I dumped it.

thanks

Mike, I don't remember telling you to sell.
Each stock has a characteristic trading pattern that it will usually follow in the absence of anything to disturb it. Look at how it's traded in the past to get a feel for how it might trade going forward. In the case of TRCI, it has several times now advanced like today to a new high on higher than average volume, followed through a little bit, then settled back on lower volume. Settled back to where? About to the previous high before the advance, somewhere between 20 day and 50 day moving average. So, one way to play it would be to assume it will do this again, and you might be able to pick it up for around $8 or so. Study a six month chart with some moving averages on it. Here's one -
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=trci,uu[l,a]daolyiay[dc][pc50!d20,2.5!f][vc60][iLa12,26,9!Lp14,3,3]

But then, each time it does this "advance on high volume, retreat on low volume" routine, more shares get into the hands of either accumulating institutions or people like us who are looking for this kind of pattern, and/or the fundamentals that I also screen for, and don't part with their shares on every little 10% jump up, because we're looking for much bigger gains. This is what's behind my other strategy that I've posted about before, maybe it was on the old yahoo group. When I find a stock like this, it may be at that point in it's life where it will stop pulling back and just run, or not. There's no good way to tell. So, I might buy half of what I'd really like to have of it. If it takes off arunnin', I'm in. If it pulls back on lighter volume as before, I buy the other half of what I wanted at wherever the support seems to be. If it pulls back on higher volume, though, or goes below where I think the bottom of the intermediate term uptrend is, I will sell it at a loss.

Good luck, however you decide to play it.

[stenzrob]

Re: Suggestion for people with Stenzrob picks

You might find it very hard to mimic stenzrob's picks, as he buys and sells the stocks quite often and it could be hard for you to replicate (keep up with the trades)---just a cautious note as the large number of ins and outs are very different from Ernie's.

I don't know where this typically inaccurate and distorted claim comes from, but it could be said that I am sometimes more active than the HUGE and sometimes HUGELY PATIENT $$$MR_MARKET$$$. I would think that it would be obvious to anyone but the mathematically challenged that if I have positions that are up 30%, 50% and more, that this would mean I am trading less often, not more.

TRUE: On 9/24 I sold CRIO at $3.13 before my profitable position went to the red, only to buy it back two days later for $2.79. And that was after I had sold a CRIO position that was up over 90% at $3.15, only to buy it back at $3. While it is true that it may have been difficult to follow all those trades to replicate my total performance, anyone who had bought CRIO when I recommended it would still be up over 50%. On 9/29, I added to my positions in MTEX and QVDX on dips. Several months ago, I owned GORX. Their report was disappointing and I sold at a loss, as both the revenue growth and the price momentum were now gone, without waiting another 18 months for it to recover. If this makes me a hyperactive trader, then so be it. (Six weeks later, GORX is still flatlined at the price where I sold it.)

FALSE: On the other hand; I bought NTST for just under $5 three and a half months ago. If Ernie had bought when I did, at $4.90 on June 19, he might have been out at >15% within four weeks. In fact, since this is up over 100% since I bought it, Ernie could have been in & out about five times with 15% gains. I bought GIGM for $1.60 eight weeks ago and have been holding it ever since. I would buy more here if I weren't already fully invested. Maybe somebody still in 100% cash could give investing a try for a change of pace.

In the last few years, an increasing amount of research has shown that PSYCHOLOGY and FINANCE go hand-in-hand in creating both unhealthy psyche and bad investment decisions.

Fear is the mindkiller.

[ChrisZXWJ]

updates?

Hey Stenzrob...have there been any updates/changes to your portfolio since Monday? I've held everything so far...I'm trying not to get too trigger happy.

Chris

[stenzrob]

Re: updates?

Hey Stenzrob...have there been any updates/changes to your portfolio since Monday? I've held everything so far...I'm trying not to get too trigger happy.

Chris

No changes since Monday, in fact no changes since 9/29.

[stenzrob]

Revenue or earnings

Revenue or earnings, which is more important?
According to Jim Jubak, it may depend on where in a business cycle you are.
Brief article at http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P62865.asp
"After watching earnings climb steadily in the year's first two quarters as companies cut costs, Wall Street now wants to see signs that revenues are finally growing. The consensus among the pros is that the cost-cutting cycle is drawing to an end at most companies. Without strong revenue growth, businesses will be hard-pressed to produce the earnings gains that stocks need to keep rallying. Rising revenues flowing through these newly lean-and-mean cost structures is the only way that most companies can generate earnings growth that matches or exceeds current expectations of 20% growth for the third quarter."

[Garden Rose]

Stenzrob THANKS

I believe it was you that posted a stock screen @MSN while we were at the Yahoo board. Thank goodness I kept it in my favorites, I must say, that screen certainly picks up some good stocks. Will you be able to post your screen on this board, I think the members would really appreciate it. I know I'm makin money NOW. Thanks, GR

[stenzrob]

Re: Stenzrob THANKS

I believe it was you that posted a stock screen @MSN while we were at the Yahoo board. Thank goodness I kept it in my favorites, I must say, that screen certainly picks up some good stocks. Will you be able to post your screen on this board, I think the members would really appreciate it. I know I'm makin money NOW. Thanks, GR

My laptop got wiped out by a security patch, and I lost all my cookies. Here's a screen that's probably slightly different than that earlier one, but the concept remains the same - solid financial condition, high revenue growth, plus momentum as indicated by high relative strength with increasing volume.
screen link
*Stenzrob, I edited the link in your post, because it made the posts too wide for my screen. Karel

[stenzrob]

New position

Bought LENS today for $11.56.

Sales are up 100% yr/yr and EPS up 80%. (stenz buying stock in a profitable company? wassup with that?)

Raised guidance in August - the stock jumped on heavy volume, pulled back to the 50 day and bounced. IMO, it is preparing to breakout again.

Recently profiled by Oberweis.

As always, do your own DD.

[mltlawn]

Remember GENR

Closed today at $6.17. I'm up 98.3%. And still holding

[stenzrob]

GIGM launch

GIGM was up over 17% today on very heavy volume, then continued to run after hours. Nobody knows why.

My GIGM position is up over 70% in two months, I have not bought anymore or sold any in all that time.

Three months ago, GIGM more than doubled in a week, then gave most of it back before beginning a more controlled climb. That's where I bought it, after the fallback. This is definitely one that falls into the "risky" category for some. It could double in a week, or suddenly drop 30%. I'm betting on the double, and even then the fun could be just beginning. Half of their business is very similar to NTES, SINA, SOHU, etc. Look at what they've done. The other half is record stores ("offline media" they call it), so it doesn't have the rich valuation of those others. They have no debt. What if they sold the slow growing record business and used the cash proceeds to expand their asian broadband services business? NTES went from 65 cents to 68 dollars in 18 months. Over 10,000% (though slightly less on an annualized basis). One or two stocks do that each year - those are the ones my screen is designed to look for: high revenue growth, low debt, low price/sales and early signs of momentum.

Good luck to all.

[stenzrob]

Lightened up a bit today

For anyone who might be quietly reading my monologue, but not posting ... I did not like the market action today. After the gap-up open, there was profit-taking all day on significant volume. So, I sold CRIO (again) for about a 6% profit from the last buy, and flipped LENS for a little under 4% gain since yesterday. I still like both of these stocks for the long term, and just hope to have the chance to buy them back again for less than I sold.

Holding MTEX, GIGM, QVDX, HBIO, NTST, and TRCI.

I've been tracking my total portfolio performance since April 8, and it's now up 164%, compared to 40.1% for the nasdaq, factor of 4.1x. I just fiddled around to get a more recent comparison, so I looked at it from 9/19, about a month ago when the nasdaq hit a short term peak - to now. Nasdaq up 1.73% peak to peak, stenz up 7.23% over the same period, or 4.175x. Then I looked at my minimally managed marketocracy fund of a big basket of stocks from my screen, and it has a beta of 4.09. The conclusion here could be that the screen does a good job of finding stocks with great potential, and my trading activity in my real account is adding very little to the total performance. I may also not be doing a very good job of selecting the very best picks from the screen.

Still workin' on it. I just started reading O'Neils book, maybe I'll learn something there. So far, he seems pretty obsessed with "earnings, earnings, earnings", but does say it has to be accompanied by revenue growth.

Regards ... stenz

[carribean_mike]

LENS

Stenz, I was a little surprized when you purchased LENS. I ran your screen using the link in an earlier post and LENS wasn't selected. Have you tweaked your parameters? I am still looking for a simple sell strategy. Mr. Market's 15% rule seems to leave too much on the table.

[stenzrob]

Re: LENS

Stenz, I was a little surprized when you purchased LENS. I ran your screen using the link in an earlier post and LENS wasn't selected. Have you tweaked your parameters? I am still looking for a simple sell strategy. Mr. Market's 15% rule seems to leave too much on the table.

Yeah, Mike. I tweaked it a bit.
Try this, comments welcome -

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/finder/finderx.asp?Query=SV1QF150Z04L25ZF151Z04L10ZF136Z00F138Z05L4ZF115Z04L50000ZF116Z04F118ZF253Z04L70ZF307Z04L85ZF137Z05L0%2e2ZF134Z04L1%2e4ZF3Z04L1%2e5ZF234Z05L5000000000Z&Name=Accel%20Rev%2bPrice&Tickers=25

As for a sell strategy, my goal is to sell if either the momentum or the revenue growth falters. Shouldn't make any difference if that's at -15%, +15%, or +150%. I'm looking forward to reading what O'Neil says about it, but I think it's way out in Chapter 12.