Stenzrob's specials

[mrmarket]

Re: LENS

Stenz, I was a little surprized when you purchased LENS. I ran your screen using the link in an earlier post and LENS wasn't selected. Have you tweaked your parameters? I am still looking for a simple sell strategy. Mr. Market's 15% rule seems to leave too much on the table.

I think some of you guys need to be reminded that selling at 15% is not leaving anything on the table. By reinvesting, you compound your profits. After I sell at 15%, I buy a new stock which frequently goes up faster than the old one I just sold.

So what is being left on the table??? Don't fall in love with a stock. It doesn't know you own it.

[tx_damnyankee0]

Ernie I agree with you. I have begun selling at 16% and then I put an alert on them just in case they drop for me to snatch up for another fun run. The problem I have is putting a stop of 10% under my buy price. I am new to this game but I am learning fast.

[stenzrob]

Ernie I agree with you. I have begun selling at 16% and then I put an alert on them just in case they drop for me to snatch up for another fun run. The problem I have is putting a stop of 10% under my buy price. I am new to this game but I am learning fast.

yankee, $$$MR_Market$$$ does not put a stop of 10% under the buy price. He will hold until the 15% profit is realized.

No disrespect intended, Ernie, but it appears you only fall in love with a stock if it treats you badly, and get rid of it only if it treats you well. (I've known some women that were that way, too.)

[mrmarket]

Ernie I agree with you. I have begun selling at 16% and then I put an alert on them just in case they drop for me to snatch up for another fun run. The problem I have is putting a stop of 10% under my buy price. I am new to this game but I am learning fast.

yankee, $$$MR_Market$$$ does not put a stop of 10% under the buy price. He will hold until the 15% profit is realized.

No disrespect intended, Ernie, but it appears you only fall in love with a stock if it treats you badly, and get rid of it only if it treats you well. (I've known some women that were that way, too.)

Stenz...over the years, the ones I hold DO come back. Well over 80% of them do within a year.

The point I don't want obscured though is the fact that selling after a 15% gain is not selling too soon when you are capable of easily finding another winner moving up at a faster rate.

[stenzrob]

Stenz...over the years, the ones I hold DO come back. Well over 80% of them do within a year.

The point I don't want obscured though is the fact that selling after a 15% gain is not selling too soon when you are capable of easily finding another winner moving up at a faster rate.

Your HUGE picks are certainly solid enough to have confidence that they will come back. Theoretically, what you say is irrefutable, and I do the same thing in a way. Have you or Karel ever looked to see if your new picks do indeed move up at a faster rate than the ones just sold? Just curious. Again, your record is indisputably HUGE, and I sincerely mean no disrespect.

We have a basic difference in goals which leads to a difference in method. O'Neil of IBD and Kennedy of the Coolcat Report have both studied the early characteristics of stocks that have made the most amazing gains, and will accept the risk of batting less than 1.000 to have a shot at being in the next big winners. This is my goal, and I can't have gains of 100% or more if I sell after 15%. O'Neil relies a lot on earnings and consistency, while Kennedy is more of a pure momentumist. Kennedy primarily looks at price & volume, I added revenue growth and valuation to that. O'Neil emphasizes EPS, but Kennedy has found the greatest gains in emerging small caps that may be just moving into profitability. Combining those two approaches, I came up with the infamous stenzrob screen.

Also, O'Neil recommends buying on breakouts (at pivot points) and Kennedy buys on pullbacks. My pitiful attempts at buy/sell timing are sometimes like one, sometimes the other, because I lack discipline. I'm considering consulting an investment psychologist. Do you know any?

[mrmarket]

Stenz...over the years, the ones I hold DO come back. Well over 80% of them do within a year.

The point I don't want obscured though is the fact that selling after a 15% gain is not selling too soon when you are capable of easily finding another winner moving up at a faster rate.

Your HUGE picks are certainly solid enough to have confidence that they will come back. Theoretically, what you say is irrefutable, and I do the same thing in a way. Have you or Karel ever looked to see if your new picks do indeed move up at a faster rate than the ones just sold? Just curious. Again, your record is indisputably HUGE, and I sincerely mean no disrespect.

We have a basic difference in goals which leads to a difference in method. O'Neil of IBD and Kennedy of the Coolcat Report have both studied the early characteristics of stocks that have made the most amazing gains, and will accept the risk of batting less than 1.000 to have a shot at being in the next big winners. This is my goal, and I can't have gains of 100% or more if I sell after 15%. O'Neil relies a lot on earnings and consistency, while Kennedy is more of a pure momentumist. Kennedy primarily looks at price & volume, I added revenue growth and valuation to that. O'Neil emphasizes EPS, but Kennedy has found the greatest gains in emerging small caps that may be just moving into profitability. Combining those two approaches, I came up with the infamous stenzrob screen.

Also, O'Neil recommends buying on breakouts (at pivot points) and Kennedy buys on pullbacks. My pitiful attempts at buy/sell timing are sometimes like one, sometimes the other, because I lack discipline. I'm considering consulting an investment psychologist. Do you know any?

Kevin Kennedy (Coolcat895) and I go back almost 10 years to the AOL Poolhall stock discussion board. There are probably some lurkers out there now who are alumni of that fun board. Coolcat and I have had a number of interesting discussions online and we still keep in touch. I'm a big fan of his as he is a big fan of mine.

I never try to time the market or time an entry point. When I see something I like, I grab it because I KNOW it's going to go up.

Karel may be interested in doing the math on that one. I tend not to look in the mirror (at least until football season is over).

[Karel]

... I never try to time the market or time an entry point. When I see something I like, I grab it because I KNOW it's going to go up.

Karel may be interested in doing the math on that one. I tend not to look in the mirror (at least until football season is over).

Yeah, right! This is a very complicated question, and you would also need to define how you are going to time your entry. <shudder>And then the backtesting.</shudder> Generally, MrMarket uses a very simple and laid back strategy. Stock picking is almost mechanical, and the rest is just: buy, set your target, and smile at the development of your portfolio. Occasionally you check what is causing the laggards to lag, and, when necessary, you clean them out.

The very simplicity and the low elbow grease requirements strongly suggest that this method could give better results when you work it harder. The most obvious way is to time your entries, but how? It is nice to note that when MrMarket buys an oversold stock it has a fair chance of becoming a real screamer, but waiting for a MrMarket stock to become oversold might very well get you in at a higher point (when the retracement wasn't quite due and not deep enough to get below his entry). Perhaps stenzrob could look at the price he buys his stocks and the price they had when he put them on his watch list. The case might be better there, because of the crazy volatility of quite a few of his stocks, but checking up is always a good thing.

And working MrMarket's method harder will always include a trade-off. Even if you set your aim so low as a 1% drop under MrMarket's entry, this will make you lose some of the real screamers. More ambitious targets will weed out more stocks. Your profit per stock might be greater, but total profit might drop.

I still have not seen a convincing argument for any change in MrMarket's strategy. Only, it is so very likely that it is possible to change it profitably.

Regards,

Karel

[mohitm73]

Stenz

Looked at your link yesterday and must say thats a great job of picking out growth and momentum together. I have a question on the RS part of your selection (and I may be wrong cause I'm new to investing, correct me if thats the case). You select 6 month RS higher than 3 month RS... shouldn't it be the other way round to indicate increasing RS.

Would appreciate clarifying

Thanks,
Mo

[stenzrob]

Re: Stenz

Looked at your link yesterday and must say thats a great job of picking out growth and momentum together. I have a question on the RS part of your selection (and I may be wrong cause I'm new to investing, correct me if thats the case). You select 6 month RS higher than 3 month RS... shouldn't it be the other way round to indicate increasing RS.

Would appreciate clarifying

Thanks,
Mo

You're absolutely right that 3 mo > 6 mo indicates increasing RS. For the screen to produce candidates, these are just minimum requirements, and you can manually pick the ones you like better. The same concept applies to revenue - I prefer the qtr/qtr revenue growth to be higher than yr/yr, just as O'Neil prefers qtr/qtr EPS higher than yr/yr EPS growth. Also, a pure momentum screen (like the one built into moneycentral) looks for last month avg volume higher than last qtr, but I just set a minimum threshold and look to see if it's still increasing. I also only display ROE and don't use it as a criteria, but I look at it.

[the_daqman]

last screen link

stenzrob Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2003 6:29 am Post subject: Re: Stenz

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mohitm73 wrote:
Looked at your link yesterday and must say thats a great job of picking out growth and momentum together. I have a question on the RS part of your selection (and I may be wrong cause I'm new to investing, correct me if thats the case). You select 6 month RS higher than 3 month RS... shouldn't it be the other way round to indicate increasing RS.

Would appreciate clarifying

Thanks,
Mo

You're absolutely right that 3 mo > 6 mo indicates increasing RS. For the screen to produce candidates, these are just minimum requirements, and you can manually pick the ones you like better. The same concept applies to revenue - I prefer the qtr/qtr revenue growth to be higher than yr/yr, just as O'Neil prefers qtr/qtr EPS higher than yr/yr EPS growth. Also, a pure momentum screen (like the one built into moneycentral) looks for last month avg volume higher than last qtr, but I just set a minimum threshold and look to see if it's still increasing. I also only display ROE and don't use it as a criteria, but I look at it.

stenz
i think what mohitm73 was referring to is:

3 month rs > 70
6 month rs > 85

which is what i get when i click that last link you posted the other day.

ns2

[stenzrob]

Re: last screen link

stenz
i think what mohitm73 was referring to is:

3 month rs > 70
6 month rs > 85

which is what i get when i click that last link you posted the other day.

ns2

I knew what was referred to. Look at it this way: since I like to buy strong stocks on low volume pullbacks or near the end of new bases, the 3 month RS might be lower than the 6 month RS. Referring to Kennedy (coolcat) again, he has said that stocks in the early stage of great gains will break out on large volume, then pullback by 20% or more. My screen only produces candidates, and I try to reach a balance in it between being overly restrictive and producing too long a list. The final selection of which of those I will buy, and when, is done by looking at the price&volume chart. I also look at technical indicators like MACD, stochastics, bollinger bands, etc., but mostly it's price & volume.

Look at GIGM, for example. For some time after the surge and retreat in July, the 3 month RS was pretty weak, while the 6 month was still strong. Looking at price&volume told me this was likely to advance some more. I'm sitting on a 75% gain, and the 3 month RS is now looking good again.

Hope that helps.
Only the screen is automatic, the rest of the stenzrob method is not, and it's not entirely clear even to me how the rest of it works.

[RCARTER528]

Something I've recently been trying, with some success, is putting all of MR Market's final 5 in a watch list. I assume that all 5 are quality picks (I do weed out the very low volume stocks), and wait for one of them to fall back. If I get a drop of 10% or more, I buy it. I did quite well with FINL with that method, and am currently in appx. We'll see how it works.

[stenzrob]

Something I've recently been trying, with some success, is putting all of MR Market's final 5 in a watch list. I assume that all 5 are quality picks (I do weed out the very low volume stocks), and wait for one of them to fall back. If I get a drop of 10% or more, I buy it. I did quite well with FINL with that method, and am currently in appx. We'll see how it works.

Everyone's goal is "beating the market".
Even better, and far more difficult, is "beating $$$MR_MARKET$$".
Good luck.

Hyperactive trading?
By selling CRIO and LENS positions for ~5% gains yesterday due to signs of weakness in the general market, my portfolio (which usually has as beta of about 4.0) was down 1.44% on a day when the nasdaq was down 1.94%. If I had held those positions, my portfolio would have been down 2.67%.

I also sold half of my NTST position for $11.97 today, for a 137% gain since buying it on a breakout in June. This stock was not on my screen when I bought it, it was just a sentimental favorite.

[the_daqman]

Re: last screen link

stenz
i think what mohitm73 was referring to is:

3 month rs > 70
6 month rs > 85

which is what i get when i click that last link you posted the other day.

ns2

I knew what was referred to. Look at it this way: since I like to buy strong stocks on low volume pullbacks or near the end of new bases, the 3 month RS might be lower than the 6 month RS. Referring to Kennedy (coolcat) again, he has said that stocks in the early stage of great gains will break out on large volume, then pullback by 20% or more. My screen only produces candidates, and I try to reach a balance in it between being overly restrictive and producing too long a list. The final selection of which of those I will buy, and when, is done by looking at the price&volume chart. I also look at technical indicators like MACD, stochastics, bollinger bands, etc., but mostly it's price & volume.

Look at GIGM, for example. For some time after the surge and retreat in July, the 3 month RS was pretty weak, while the 6 month was still strong. Looking at price&volume told me this was likely to advance some more. I'm sitting on a 75% gain, and the 3 month RS is now looking good again.

Hope that helps.
Only the screen is automatic, the rest of the stenzrob method is not, and it's not entirely clear even to me how the rest of it works.

stenz

understood. i only posted bc i thought that the two of you might have been thinking of different screen versions or something.

ns2

[tokyojoeskid]

cyd

stenz what you think about CYD, i ran it through my screener came up tops along with gigm. Lookslike it has a huge potential for growth in china as china builds infrastructure. They build diesel engines. trading at a 52 week high big qtrly rev growth, and as china prepares for the olympics in 08(more transportation) i can see no downfall in forward looking growth opportunities. more info here. . .

http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/031014/newamer_1.html