Stenzrob's specials

[ChrisZXWJ]

would you still be buying at 3.90?

Since I think it will go to $6 to $8 in the next three to six months, I'd have to say yes.

personally, I'm excited that I chickened out and sold for a 5% profit. Oh well, ya win some ya lose some...congrats to the rest of you.

[drchrislee]

Quesion

Since I think it will go to $6 to $8 in the next three to six months, I'd have to say yes.

Stenz...as I mentioned on the yahoo board I don't really have any guidance on EONC...but I'm wondering how you figure a $6 to $8 target. Just wondering what that's based on.

Thanks

[stenzrob]

Re: Quesion

I'm wondering how you figure a $6 to $8 target.

Method 1: Price/sales is now 2.31 at $4. Price/sales of 5.0 gives target of over $8.
Method 2: EPSxPE - EPS last four Q's were -0.04, +0.01, +0.02, +0.03. Extrapolating EPS growth for the next two quarters to 0.05, 0.07 gives a TTM EPS in six months of 0.17, x PE 50 = $8.50.
Method 3: Current trend - Price was $2 last June, $3 last September, $4 this January, extrapolating $5 in March or April, $6 by June or July.
Method 4: Long term resistance - In May 2000, price dropped on heavy volume from $9 to $6 and bounced to $8 before continuing slide on decreasing volume.
Method 5: Dice

[drchrislee]

Re: Quesion

Method 1: Price/sales is now 2.31 at $4. Price/sales of 5.0 gives target of over $8.
Method 2: EPSxPE - EPS last four Q's were -0.04, +0.01, +0.02, +0.03. Extrapolating EPS growth for the next two quarters to 0.05, 0.07 gives a TTM EPS in six months of 0.17, x PE 50 = $8.50.
Method 3: Current trend - Price was $2 last June, $3 last September, $4 this January, extrapolating $5 in March or April, $6 by June or July.
Method 4: Long term resistance - In May 2000, price dropped on heavy volume from $9 to $6 and bounced to $8 before continuing slide on decreasing volume.
Method 5: Dice

Thanks - that was very helpful. I had forgotten your price/sales ratio of 5 that you look for. To hear your techniques is very useful - I'm learning from you almost every day.

[stenzrob]

Re: Quesion

Thanks - that was very helpful. I had forgotten your price/sales ratio of 5 that you look for. To hear your techniques is very useful - I'm learning from you almost every day.

Glad it was helpful. Discussing helps me, too. Don't forget method 5. You'll notice I seldom buy stocks that are over $12.

[stenzrob]

Re: Long time, no hear?

Stenz,

Miss you on the Yahoo CRIO post. Looks like you've been busy! Do you still keep an eye on CRIO? I'm stubborn and still stuck waiting for a rebound. Broke my own rule and did not set a stop. Anyway, can you save me some time and point me to your latest screen results?

Best regards,

Truth, I haven't really been watching CRIO.
Try this screen, and I heartily recommend messing around with it, and putting any other stocks you like for other reasons into the compare box to see how they stack up to these criteria. To reiterate some points I made earlier -
1. Stocks not on this screen also go up
2. Not all stocks on this screen go up
3. This screen only produces candidates for further DD
I have not made a study of this, but my impression is that the majority of candidates produced by this screen do go up ... a lot. I think ChrisXZJGQW is doing a thesis or something on this.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/customstocks.asp?Query=SV1QF150Z04L25ZF151Z04L10ZF136Z00F138Z05L4ZF115Z04L50000ZF116Z04F118ZF253Z04L70ZF307Z04L85ZF137Z05L0%2e2ZF134Z04L1%2e4ZF3Z04L1%2e5ZF234Z05L5000000000Z&Name=Accel%20RevQY%2bPrice36&Tickers=25#Big

[IamOrion]

Your Screen

Is this the only screen you use?

[stenzrob]

Re: Your Screen

Is this the only screen you use?

No, but all the screens I use are similar - all look for growth of some sort, valuation by some metric, financial stability, and momentum over some period of time.

[IamOrion]

I see that you own some CTRA, I do not own any myself, but was thinking of jumping in here on some weakness, any new thoughts on this one.

[stenzrob]

I see that you own some CTRA, I do not own any myself, but was thinking of jumping in here on some weakness, any new thoughts on this one.

No, no new thoughts. Still like it and still holding. This one may take some time, since normal trading is light with sudden high volume bursts. I wouldn't want this to be my only or my biggest position. By the way, my three largest positions are HBIO, QVDX, and WITS.

[stenzrob]

Re: eonc

I did just sell my WITS for $11.60 that I bought for $9.10 a couple of weeks ago. +22% in two weeks. I might be leaving some on the table here, but I was just feeling the need to sell something.

Got my WITS back this morning.

That was bought at average price of $10.98.
WITS had another good day, now up 16% since I bought it back 9 days ago.
I'm having trouble coming up with a target price, since it's over $12 and I only have two dice.

[ChrisZXWJ]

Re: Long time, no hear?

I think ChrisXZJGQW is doing a thesis or something on this.

my lazy ass hasn't even started, so don't expect anything earth shattering anytime soon it's due on the last day of class and that's probably when I'll have it done...

Good call on WITS, I like it too...made me a little less bitter about selling EONC.

[moemaynard]

eonc.......

why do I have the feeling like earnings are going to miss? Why would there be this much selling after such good news from China? Suspicious...

[stenzrob]

Re: eonc.......

why do I have the feeling like earnings are going to miss? Why would there be this much selling after such good news from China? Suspicious...

It is healthy to be suspicious, but this selling is on very low volume. I was concerned about the volume of the drop in the first week of February followed by lower volume bounce that stopped at around $3.50, and was very close to pushing the "bailout" button when the China news came out. I will hang in for a while yet.

[stenzrob]

Interesting day today - I picked up some more WITS for under $12, and started a new position in LCCI at $7.20.

That does it for me, I'm probably done buying for now.