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Originally posted by ChrisZXWJ
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I'm not up right now...BOT in the 14's...but I like it Intermediate Term and possibly Long Term. The technicals don't look all that great right now...but I attribute that to the market:
"Trade What Is Happening...Not What You Think Is Gonna Happen"
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I'm still holding my core position in WITS, absolutely. I actually like the technicals - trend is still up, average volume still increasing, consistently moves up from moving average with volume. This is my holding that has performed the best over the last few months.Originally posted by IICComment
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Bought some AUO today for $21.25.
Added to SNCI position at $8.30.
Had been at almost 40% cash, now down to 10% cash.
Counting on the market turning back around soon.
We'll see ...Comment
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I continue to be amazed at the hapless misfortunes that continue to befall two of my former picks, LENS and QVDX.
QVDX was in an uptrend for most of 2003 and the first couple of months of 2004. All available info showed rising revenues, the CEO was winning awards for leadership, etc. This was once my largest position and I felt pretty good about it, but I sold for a nice gain when it appeared that the uptrend was failing. That was at $5.31. Since then, they said they'd have to restate, the CEO has resigned, the SEC is investigating, and the price is now $1.29.
LENS also turned into a disaster. I sold for a loss when they missed estimates. That was at $10. Then they guided down, senior execs have left, the company is in turmoil, and the price is now $2.68.
As far as I know, there was absolutely no way to have anticipated either of these train wrecks, just as there was no way to have anticipated such a severe selloff in HBIO for slightly lackluster performance in some divisions in one quarter. I am hoping that HBIO doesn't turn into another QVDX or LENS. No fear, no regrets, I only review these cases as proof of the wisdom of diversification. Also, that one can only learn from mistakes if they admit they are mistakes.
regards ... stenzComment
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GORX, VTIV
Stenz,
Any opinion on an old choice of yours, GORX? It is looking good to me so I bought in yesterday with a fraction of my MGPI profits. Also took a position in VTIV ... this one came up in my MM screens. Any opinion on that one?
TIA,
ridemhigherComment
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No opinion on VTIV. GORX may actually be a timely choice, since Krispy Kreme recently said that the popularity of low-carb diets was affecting their results, and this is one of GORX's specialities.Comment
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Added to WITS position yesterday. Now essentially 100% invested.Originally posted by stenzrob on May 13Comment
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Lens
Hey Stenz, did I read that right that the stock has plumeted to $2.50 on news of Ira and Sr. Mgmt's leaving the company? That doesn't make sense to me as the management for that company is probably the worst I'll see in my lifetime right behind Kozlowski. They stuffed shirts paid themselves salaries ranging from 3.5 million down and did nothing to benefit the company and their golden parachutes just weighed down earnings as well.
Glad I got out a long time ago as well. What a mess.Comment
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Re: Lens
Mi6, I had not seen that news, but you're absolutely right about it being a mess, and about the management team.Originally posted by Mi6opComment
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AUO revisited
I've just been going back over my portfolio, revisiting revenue and earnings growth, valuations, etc. and AUO is sticking out like a sore thumb as being undervalued and going places, even compared to some of my other holdings that I also feel very good about. It's also the largest cap stock I think I've ever directly held. If someone sees something I don't, please point out my error.
Revenue growth: Sales in the last quarter were up 138% over the year ago quarter, and this was not some one-time deal, this was a steady quarter by quarter ramp from $0.5 billion to $1.25 billion on increasing sales of large HDTV flatscreens. More ridiculous growth is forecast, like "low-teen" sequential. Does anybody think the market for flat widescreen HDTV and computer monitors is saturated, or even close to it? How about the market for LCD monitors in cars, planes, and trains worldwide?
Earnings growth has been even more ridiculous, but will be moderated during the coming year due to $11.8 billion investment in next generation manufacturing plant. Gross margin is 49%, return on equity and return on capital both over 20%. Debt is pretty low for a manufacturing operation of this magnitude, but with profits flowing in by the billions, I'm not really surprised. Barriers to entry? How many companies can shell out $11.8 billion for a manufacturing plant?
Valuation: Given this kind of growth, what the heck is the PE ratio doing at 11.2, price/sales at 2.44, and price/book at 3.39?
Institutional ownership is only around 10% so there's plenty of room for more big buying. Insiders own 30%, so they are highly motivated.
Warning: Volatility due to being Taiwan based. Every time the mainland says something belligerent about Taiwan, I would expect a setback. Currency exchange rates are also reflective of the geopolitics.
Average daily volume ratcheted up a notch at the beginning of the year driving it past $15 to almost $30 before backpedaling to $20. Looking at this from a $$$M_M$$$ perspective, the stock is up about 300% since last June, earnings are positive and growing, yet the PE ration is 11.2.
I bought AUO for $21.25 on May 13. Four to six weeks out, I have no idea where this will be. If this works out as I'd like, I will start trading half my position when it hits $50 before the end of the year. Everybody here knows I'm no TA expert, but it looks to me like the MACD and stochastics and recent push back through the 50 day average are pointing to a nice run if the market sentiment doesn't turn sour. As good as I feel about this one, it is still 20% of a well-balanced basket of five stocks in my non-IRA account, which also includes a few really wacky hard-to-justify speculations.Comment
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Re: AUO revisited
which ones? I like wacky, hard-to-justify speculations.Originally posted by stenzrob
Oh, and I also really like AUO too, I think it's just gotten less exposure from being foreign and the relatively crappy overall market. I had a limit order in at 20 and I was very very very lucky to get it at 19 the other day on the open. 50 sounds good to me too...Comment
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AUO
Stenz,
I started looking at AUO, back when IMOS was on one of your scans. I owned it from about 14 to 19 and then again from about 20 to 24. Coming from a chart stand point its looking real good. I don't really get into the channels and that stuff, but the CCI is about cross over the zero line and the MACD is about to crossover as well. Also, on my chart it crossed and closed over the 50dma. Seems technically all signs point to a go. I jumped back in at 20 ish, before it bottomed at 18 ish. Hopefully we run from here.
Good LuckComment
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Orion, Thanks for the input on this.
AUO was one of those that showed up on my screen and I watched it go up without me. When it had the pullback, I tried to be patient, but also bought around 20-ish before it bottomed at 18-ish. Our 20 something entrance could look very well-timed on any time scale longer than a week or two.
regards ... stenzComment
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Was AUO, on your screen when IMOS was? I don't remember seeing in on there, maybe it was after IMOS had popped up.Comment
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AUO was my pick for the NCAA basketball tourney........Bought it 3/9/04 at 18.71 , but sold too soon for miniscule profit................
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