Stenzrob's specials

[stenzrob]

ah, I was wondering why you haven't mentioned GMAI's recent runup.

Do you have a lot of cash, or just a lot in a few positions? seems like you had 10 or so before

A little of both, Chris - I currently have 7 positions, and about 27% cash in each account. Probably going to pull the excess cash out of my non-IRA to pay cap gains taxes for 2003 and cover a planned 2 week Danube river cruise with my family, who are upset that I keep going to Europe without them (the whiners).

http://www.uniworld.com/trip_overview.asp?Cruise_ID=423

The cash in the IRA is just waiting for a good opportunity.

I missed the recent GMAI runup, add it to the ever-lengthening list of stenzblunders!

[Tsevni98]

HURC

Added HURC today it has been on the move lately.

SOmetimes it shows up on your screen Stenz it was between 5.50 and 6.00 forever. Now it is knocking on 9. It fell of your screen this time because the avg volume has been to low. These last couple of days should solve that problem/


Long HURC. NAII had a nice move today. It is also on your screens often.

[craigmoosh]

Stenz for Prez!

Stenz - Nice call on LIFC!! I bought it this morning and I'm already up 10% in 6 hours. Not bad!

HBIO has also been flying the past week, but that thing likes to sell off after big run-ups. I've done fairly well playing the swings, though.

I really like WITS, but I sold it at $14.28. I'm hoping to buy back in the low 13's (which could put a nice handle on the cup, btw), but I wouldn't be all that surprised if it doesn't ever see that level again.

Thanks for all the great picks!

Craig

[stenzrob]

Re: HURC

Added HURC today it has been on the move lately.

SOmetimes it shows up on your screen Stenz it was between 5.50 and 6.00 forever. Now it is knocking on 9. It fell of your screen this time because the avg volume has been to low. These last couple of days should solve that problem/


Long HURC. NAII had a nice move today. It is also on your screens often.

I like HURC, it's on my watchlist.

[stenzrob]

Dumped LCCI for a 16% loss at $6.20.
Bought SNCI back at $11.00.

[tokyojoeskid]

snci

Thats weird I ran my screener a week ago and one near the top of my list was snci. I will be joining you at 11, actually I got mine for 10.999 ha
Looks like an interesting company too, and seems like they are really growing, hopefully they can keep it up. nice pick stenz
tjk

[stenzrob]

Win some, lose some

My timing on LIFC was pretty good, bought just before a breakout - I continue to hold it, up about 14% in one week.

Timing has been slightly less good on SNCI lately - first bought for $9.50 on 2/13, and after a few weeks it took off, and I took the 25% profit at $12 on 3/18. Had been out of it looking for some short term weakness to buy back in, thought I got a good deal last Friday at $11. $10 today would have been a better deal, I guess. If there is continued weakness, I will buy more of this- 49% sales growth last year, more of the same projected, with rapidly increasing profitability, yet price/sales is only about 2.5, so the price could possibly double from here - EPS was 0.02 this year, guidance from the company is for greater than 0.28 next year, that's over 1000% earnings growth - what should the PE be for that? Right now, it's selling for 36x estimated 2004 EPS.

HBIO has sure been a lot of fun. Originally bought in my IRA for $6, I neglected to sell on any of the spikes. Bought some more for around $9.25 sometime in January or February, and again failed to sell on any of the spikes. Bought some for my cash account at $9.30 as it was selling off in late February, making this position very overweighted in my total portfolio, and bought still more at $8 a few weeks ago. This was starting to make me a bit uncomfortable being so overweight (no HUGE jokes, please), so I have sold the newer positions as they have become profitable, the $8 position was sold for $9 and a 12% profit a few days later, half the $9.30 position was sold for $9.55 and a small profit a few days after that, and the rest of it for $10 last Thursday. That left only the IRA positions, and I sold the $9.25 position for $10.10 today. A fair amount of profits in my pocket for riding the coaster, and I still have the original position, bought at $6 last September and still up over 60%. I plan to continue holding the original position, and might add to it again if the opportunity arises.

For those that may be curious:
this leaves me with WITS as my largest holding, HBIO, HSKA, SNCI, LIFC, PDEX, and a mini-position in BRHI. 37% cash in the IRA, and 20% cash in the other account after pulling out over half of my profits from 2003 as mentioned before for taxes and a bit of recreation.

I have sat and watched a few stocks from my screen take off without me (QUIN, for example) while I continue to sit on some of the ones that used to be moving, until I bought them. Ernie sells after hitting his target to get on a "faster horse", but maybe the same argument should apply when sitting on a dead horse, which several dissidents have pointed out about some of Ernie's holdings. I think Ernie should do what he wants to do, and I'm not interested in suggesting that he do otherwise. Who am I to suggest such a thing, anyway? Kevin Kennedy has said something like that if the stock doesn't set a new high in three months, then lose it. That would apply to my holdings of PDEX and HSKA. But then, it also applied to GMAI, I got tired of it and dumped it shortly before it made another run. Just thinking out loud here - my portfolio is still beating the nasdaq year-to-date and this stock trading is a fun hobby.

regards ... stenz

[IIC]

FWIW...WITS is my largest holding too...BOT the day before it appeared in New America last week...I like it as a long term hold...but you know me...LTH usually means a week or two

[Dave]

Anyone tag along on IPIX? Huge surge up on what can only be described as insane volume. I re-routed some cash to that one and rode it from 17 to 26 yesterday over a span of about an hour. Insane. Going to keep an eye on this one for the rest of the week.

-Coach

[stenzrob]

Re: Win some, lose some

HBIO has sure been a lot of fun ... I plan to continue holding the original position, and might add to it again if the opportunity arises.

I have sat and watched a few stocks from my screen take off without me (QUIN, for example)...

Glad I liquidated the excess HBIO in the $10 area. Patiently waiting for an opportunity to get some of the excess shares back, but I solemnly vow not to get as overweighted in it as I once was. It seems to turn on the stochastic moreso than on the MACD. Maybe I'll just wait for that.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=hbio,uu[h,a]daolyiay[dc][pc50!d20,2.5!f][vc60][iLa12,26,9!Lp14,3,3]&pref=G

Picked up some QUIN for $12.75 today. I kept looking at it, thinking I should buy some, then all of a sudden it dropped about $1 on negligible volume. I took that as an engraved invitation. Find out tomorrow if it was an invitation to a party or to my funeral.

Still at 40% cash in my IRA.

To answer Dave's question - I had no part of IPIX. The whole surveillance security business has been going crazy the last week or so, and this kind of momentum can turn around and bite you just as quickly. I just don't have the time or inclination to play those games, though I'll tip my hat to anyone who can consistently play it profitably. I will continue to play my game - find some stocks I like, hold some and trade some.

And IIC - it's worth something to me that you're also in WITS. As with others, I continue to hold my original position and trade a second position. I'm looking for some action like in March, a slow drift on decreasing volume back to the 50 day, then a reversal.

[Bakxs]

You aren't kidding...

The whole surveillance security business has been going crazy the last week or so, and this kind of momentum can turn around and bite you just as quickly. I just don't have the time or inclination to play those games, though I'll tip my hat to anyone who can consistently play it profitably. I will continue to play my game - find some stocks I like, hold some and trade some.

MACE has tripled in the last two days.

CRAZY~

--Bakxs

[stenzrob]

Re: You aren't kidding...

MACE has tripled in the last two days.

TBUS was $2.50 on April 2, trading volume was averaging less than 10k shares per day for years.
It just peaked at over $16 yesterday on almost 20 million shares traded.
~CRAZY indeed.

[Bakxs]

Besides TASR...

...is anyone playing these high-flying "defense" stocks (MACE, TBUS, etc...)?

--Bakxs

[FundaMental1]

SNCI

Hey Stenz & Tokyojoekid,

I'm a new poster to this board and wanted to get your thoughts on SNCI.
I have just started to do my own DD on the company and think the potential growth prospects for the company are huge, however I am worried about SNCI's ability to further penetrate its markets.

This excerpt from an article on yahoo highlights a huge risk here, the Company's ability to increase market share versus bigger, more established players even though SNCI has a better (and more expensive) product:
"The guys who are bigger than us - in my humble opinion - don't have great technology," Raguskus said. "But they have very powerful distribution, they have good customer relations, good marketing. They've taken very good care of their customers for many years."
So Raguskus keeps preaching the gospel of technology. He's quick to point out that Sonic is the only company with clinically proven results that show its hearing aids improve speech understanding in the presence of background noise.

So SNCI's technology is superior, however that doesn't necessarily imply that it will succeed in the long run. Can either of you please give your thoughts on the expected direction of the stock in the short-term and the long-term prospects for the Company? also, i saw that you both got in around $11 and the stock is currently in the low $10s. what do you think is a good entry point? thanks.

[stenzrob]

Re: SNCI

please give your thoughts on the expected direction of the stock in the short-term and the long-term prospects for the Company? also, i saw that you both got in around $11 and the stock is currently in the low $10s. what do you think is a good entry point? thanks.

I thought $11 was a good entry point. Short-term is anybody's guess and I won't hazard a guess.

This is what I'm looking at - revenue was 57M in FY'01, 68M in FY'02, 88M in FY'03 and recent guidance from the company is for over 100M in FY'04. So annual revenue growth varies from 15 to 30%. Can they penetrate the market and gain share in the face of their more well-established competition? Apparently so. Since they are just now breaking into being consistently profitable, earnings should grow much faster than revenues for the next several years. In fact, estimates are for going from essentially breakeven in FY'03 to 0.28 in FY'04 and 0.40 in FY'05. At $10, the PE on the estimated FY'04 earnings is only 35. Pretty reasonable. Price/sales ratio is around 2.5, also very reasonable.

Now about the stock itself. In January, it broke through to new multi-year high on much higher than average volume. Some retrace and/or volatility is to be expected. See this chart:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=snci,uu[h,a]waolyiay[df][pc10!c50!f][vc60][iLa12,26,9!Lp14,3,3]&pref=G
Also, institutional ownership is about 35%. That's a sweet spot - not so small as to be unrecognized, not so much so that the only institutional activity would be selling.

Long term, I believe SNCI could go to $20 or more in six to twelve months, or I wouldn't be holding it.