Stenzrob's specials

[lindsayleeds]

Time for Stenz to buy PRZ

Stenz,

You wanna turn around your bad start this year? It is PRZ time! PRZ has been increasing revenue at a rapid pace the last two years, but I believe earnings this April will start showing the profitability. Management is predicting .30 EPS this year. It is currently trading about a P/E of 40-50. However, even if that slows to a P/E of 30 * .30 EPS that gives us a target price of $9 for early 2005. At the current price of $2.94 per share, that's a triple waiting to happen.

The management has been very successful at doing what they say they are going to do. I really have confidence in them.

See my posts on the Yahoo! forums for more info.

My ADNW is rocking the house right now. But my BEL just got a 30% slap in the face. I really think BEL is a good buy right now. The market overreacted to the bad news. The company is still solid and has a great track record.

Good management makes a good stock. Bad management makes for a bad stock (QVDX).

Well it hasn't been a great year for me either. But at least I'm still in the black for the year. I really strongly recommend PRZ to y'all.

Lindsay

[stenzrob]

Appreciate your concern, but PRZ just doesn't look attractive to me.

This has not been the greatest quarter for me, but I survived it OK. Narrowly escaped some real ball-busters like QVDX by setting stops. Also took advantage of some short term weakness in otherwise strong stocks that still look good to me over the longer term, like HBIO. I believe that tokyojoeskid is also pleased with picking up some additional HBIO when it was down a bit.

At the end of this quarter, (relative to January 2), my portfolio is up 1% while the nasdaq is down 0.5%. Certainly nothing to write home about, but my kind of stock picks are historically more likely to outperform by a wide margin in a bull market. If I can just keep from losing my shirt when the market is flat to down, I'm OK with that. I was down for the quarter almost 10% just a week ago - with HBIO rebounding, and WITS and SNCI showing some strength, it came back pretty quickly.

I'm currently holding PDEX, HBIO, WITS, HSKA, and LCCI and about 35% cash. Took some profits temporarily in CPTV and SNCI, but I still like these as well as looking at some others.

If the nasdaq doesn't clear and hold the 2000 level with some volume pretty soon, I will start carefully unloading before it returns to 1500.

[tokyojoeskid]

yes sir

Thats right I also thought Hbio was attractive and doubled up at 7.90. Looking for a quick 20% pop will prolly sell that lot at around 9.50. Seems like hbio swings like mad and yes i would love to see the thing just keep going but I would also like to secure some gains.

I am in about 30%cash just waiting on the sidelines to see where the market decides to go.

UTSI is killing me. This company is UNDERVALUED, I just cant see the reason its being held down like it is, someone tell me something negative about the company!! patience patience patience

TJK

[mrmarket]

Re: yes sir

Thats right I also thought Hbio was attractive and doubled up at 7.90. Looking for a quick 20% pop will prolly sell that lot at around 9.50. Seems like hbio swings like mad and yes i would love to see the thing just keep going but I would also like to secure some gains.

I am in about 30%cash just waiting on the sidelines to see where the market decides to go.

UTSI is killing me. This company is UNDERVALUED, I just cant see the reason its being held down like it is, someone tell me something negative about the company!! patience patience patience

TJK

I no longer own UTSI but I am amazed at how poorly the stock has done given its earnings and future prospects. This is a takeover waiting to happen if the stock does not reflect the company's superior performance. Management better get out to Wall Street and start beating a drum or they will be unemployed soon!

[Mi6op]

Stenz do you no longer hold HSKA? The stock took a dive a few weeks ago but is slowly coming back. Still the strong fundamentals as before.

[billyjoe]

Mr. Market and others,
UTSI has an earnings per share rating of 98 and a relative strength of 6! There can't be many stocks in this category. Can anyone name another? If so wouldn't it be an interesting group to track. Have any of the MM group ever done this research? Thanks for any information.
billyjoe

[lindsayleeds]

Is Stenz a CAN-SLIM investor?

Stenz,

To hear you talking about the NAZ holding 2000 with volume I would think maybe you are a CAN-SLIM type investor. Wouldn't simply holding the 2000 mark with heavy volume be days of distribution by mutual funds? I would understand that as a CAN-SLIM sell signal unless the NAZ was advancing steadily during that heavy volume.

[mrmarket]

Mr. Market and others,
UTSI has an earnings per share rating of 98 and a relative strength of 6! There can't be many stocks in this category. Can anyone name another? If so wouldn't it be an interesting group to track. Have any of the MM group ever done this research? Thanks for any information.
billyjoe

In bear markets I have bought stocks with very low RS ratings and very high EPS ratings....basically it tells you to buy cheap oversold stocks. It works, but you have to be patient. Using my model is more fun.

[IIC]

Mr. Market and others,
UTSI has an earnings per share rating of 98 and a relative strength of 6! There can't be many stocks in this category. Can anyone name another? If so wouldn't it be an interesting group to track. Have any of the MM group ever done this research? Thanks for any information.
billyjoe

In bear markets I have bought stocks with very low RS ratings and very high EPS ratings....basically it tells you to buy cheap oversold stocks. It works, but you have to be patient. Using my model is more fun.

Here is 33 of them:
DYIIE
QLGC
RYAAY
SRDX
ACAI
ESI
HNT
ODSY
ELX
CSLMF
FRED
KKD
TEU
UTSI
AMGN
ABC
BBI
CVCY
FHCC
OVRL
SYNF
ABCO
EPIQ
FLB
MANT
NAVG
SBKC
BSTE
CIA
CP
FISV
FOX
MYL

However, I prefer to keep tabs on what I call UNDISCOVERED GEMS...Lo RS and great current EPS and Projections(not IBD EPS rank)...Here is my current list:

CCRD
EXLT
MESA
NTGR
PKTR
TLGD

BTW: Don't know if this discussion belongs on Stenz's thread...If you want to discuss this further...You know where to find me billyjoe...Sorry Stenz...IIC

[stenzrob]

Stenz do you no longer hold HSKA? The stock took a dive a few weeks ago but is slowly coming back. Still the strong fundamentals as before.

I still hold my original positions that are under water, having bought at $3 and $2.50. When it dropped to $2, I bought some more, and sold that chunk for $2.40 a week later.

As you say, the story is still the same, that's why I continue to hold the core position. I just took the opportunity for a few bucks into my pocket on the dip.

[stenzrob]

Re: Is Stenz a CAN-SLIM investor?

Stenz,

To hear you talking about the NAZ holding 2000 with volume I would think maybe you are a CAN-SLIM type investor. Wouldn't simply holding the 2000 mark with heavy volume be days of distribution by mutual funds? I would understand that as a CAN-SLIM sell signal unless the NAZ was advancing steadily during that heavy volume.

I only meant that I wanted to see an accumulation day - not a rise above 2000 on low volume, which would be doomed to be reversed, and not a spike above 2000 only to settle below it again with volume. Something like yesterday was what I was looking for to make me less nervous about impending doom. CAN-SLIM? Not exactly, I just observe the index to keep from trying to swim against the current, that's all.

[stenzrob]

Mr. Market and others,
UTSI has an earnings per share rating of 98 and a relative strength of 6! There can't be many stocks in this category. Can anyone name another? If so wouldn't it be an interesting group to track. Have any of the MM group ever done this research? Thanks for any information.
billyjoe

In bear markets I have bought stocks with very low RS ratings and very high EPS ratings....basically it tells you to buy cheap oversold stocks. It works, but you have to be patient. Using my model is more fun.

Here is 33 of them: <deleted>

However, I prefer to keep tabs on what I call UNDISCOVERED GEMS...Lo RS and great current EPS and Projections(not IBD EPS rank)...Here is my current list: <deleted>

BTW: Don't know if this discussion belongs on Stenz's thread...If you want to discuss this further...You know where to find me billyjoe...Sorry Stenz...IIC

No problem. I've had some occasional success in the past with some high EPS low RS stocks. MSN has a predefined screen called "Great Expectations" that often has some interesting prospects. This is where I first found SCLD, for example (which I am currently not in). The key to the undiscovered gems type of stock is to be badly undervalued relative to projections for healthy growth, and then to meet or exceed those projections. They're undervalued (undiscovered) because nobody really believes the projections. I also pay little attention to analyst estimates - the real undiscovered gems in my book are those that have no published analyst estimates, but the companies provide their own guidance, meet or exceed slightly that guidance, and have provided recent guidance that shows more growth ahead. Finding such companies is difficult, and also can require patience. PDEX falls into this category.

[ChrisZXWJ]

Hey Stenz, what's the current portfolio look like?

[stenzrob]

Hey Stenz, what's the current portfolio look like?

Holding HBIO, WITS, HSKA, LCCI, PDEX.
Also just added some LIFC today for $8.00.

p.s. I also have some BRHI I bought for $0.72, but this has nothing to do with my usual selection criteria.

[ChrisZXWJ]

ah, I was wondering why you haven't mentioned GMAI's recent runup.

Do you have a lot of cash, or just a lot in a few positions? seems like you had 10 or so before