Stenzrob's specials

[tokyojoeskid]

gmai for hlex

Stenz what do you think about selling gmai and buying hlex, hlex earnings looked great and they kept their forecast in line to meet or exceed next quarter. For some reason hlex just got rocked
thanks
tjk

[tokyojoeskid]

and i did make the swap

sold gmai for 11.92 about an 18% gain, bought hlex at 10.17
tjk

[stenzrob]

Re: it my turn to be scared!!!

I don't know about you but now I am scared when I don't see Stenz's comment on this board or on yahoo board...

My father-in-law passed away early Tuesday morning. The funeral was yesterday, and I am now relaxing at my sister-in-law's house in Houston. Until today, I had no idea what my stock positions were doing, and it really didn't seem to matter much. I'll be back into it next week. It seems like y'all have things pretty much under control here.

regards ... stenz

[tscanlon]

Stenz,

Sorry to hear about your father-in-law.

Did anyone see PDEX, up 20% today in advance of earnings with 4X average volume? Not sure if I should bail before earnings or not.

Stenz if you check in, give us your thoughts.

T

[drchrislee]

Sorry...

I'm terribly sorry to hear that Stenz..best of luck.

[stenzrob]

PDEX surge today

Stenz,

Sorry to hear about your father-in-law.

Did anyone see PDEX, up 20% today in advance of earnings with 4X average volume? Not sure if I should bail before earnings or not.

Stenz if you check in, give us your thoughts.

T

Thanks to all for the condolences received.

I sure as heck noticed PDEX today. Before I left last Tuesday morning, I put in some stop loss sell orders on some positions and some lowball buy orders on others. Believe it or not, I actually bought additional PDEX for $2.30 last Wednesday afternoon, and didn't even realize it until today.

Bail before earnings? I'm not planning to on this one. You never know what might happen, though. I should have bailed before LENS reported, and I'm glad I did on MTRX and TRCI, but have also had some very pleasant gaps up on others at times when I held through the report. So let me say this about that ... you should have in mind revenue and earnings targets that if the company produces keeps the growth trend in place. What kind of revenue and earnings would make for a favorable qtr/qtr comparison? If the company meets or beats your expectations, hold or even buy more (or buy back if you bailed before the report). If the company does not meet your expectations, sell if you didn't bail before, and if you already bailed, breathe a sigh of relief. Whatever the decision, know your criteria ahead of time and make the decision quickly and without regret. I have done this in the past for several stocks with good result. In some cases, I have seen a report come out for a company I was holding, didn't like it, sold immediately (after-hours) and had the stock open the next morning 20% below where I sold. Note: This usually only works for companies reporting after the close, since after hours liquidity is still almost reasonable. The reason I bailed out of MTRX a while back before their report was that the report was due the next morning, and pre-open liquidity is much worse for some reason. This burned me big time on LENS, and would have again on MTRX if I hadn't pre-emptively sold.

Is it possible for the market reaction to be different than yours to whatever the results are? Definitely. In fact, if the results aren't what you expect, and the price goes up, you get to sell for more. If the results are what you were looking for and are not well received, you can buy on the weakness. Watch the volume, though. You don't want to attempt the "catch a falling knife" trick.

Another thing to consider here is the valuation, and correlates to my sell target of price/sales ratio over 5.0. A high valuation indicates that the market is expecting continued strong growth. The phrase "priced for perfection" is often used here. At the time of TRCI's last report, the p/s was already over 5. Anything less than continued or accelerating strong growth would be met with a selloff, and that's what happened. PDEX is selling for p/s of 1.71, and a fairly low price/book ratio. Not much inflated expectation to disappoint there.

[stenzrob]

Re: PDEX surge today

Believe it or not, I actually bought additional PDEX for $2.30 last Wednesday afternoon, and didn't even realize it until today.

Just sold that extra PDEX lot for $3.20. +39%, one week.
Still holding my original PDEX position from $3.03.

[tokyojoeskid]

eonc

Stenz you think eonc is a buy at these levels and why the bounce, oversold?
tjk

[stenzrob]

Re: eonc

Stenz you think eonc is a buy at these levels and why the bounce, oversold?
tjk

I'm not sure what's going on with EONC. It might be a buy at these levels, but I'd rather see it going up than down. I already have some that I'm holding, I'm not buying more right now.

I did just sell my WITS for $11.60 that I bought for $9.10 a couple of weeks ago. +22% in two weeks. I might be leaving some on the table here, but I was just feeling the need to sell something.

[drchrislee]

Re: eonc

I'm not sure what's going on with EONC. It might be a buy at these levels, but I'd rather see it going up than down. I already have some that I'm holding, I'm not buying more right now.

I heard this morning that they missed the quarter, though it's not official news yet, so take with a grain of salt. The stock is plummeting...I may just get out of this one while I can and take a loss.

[stenzrob]

Re: eonc

I heard this morning that they missed the quarter, though it's not official news yet, so take with a grain of salt. The stock is plummeting...I may just get out of this one while I can and take a loss.

Somebody said that on the Yahoo message board, I put no value on it. I'm having a bad week - response to PDEX, CPTV and GMAI reports were not very favorable. The EONC plunge hurts, but I am still holding.

[stenzrob]

Re: eonc

I heard this morning that they missed the quarter, though it's not official news yet, so take with a grain of salt. The stock is plummeting...I may just get out of this one while I can and take a loss.

Somebody said that on the Yahoo message board, I put no value on it. I'm having a bad week - response to PDEX, CPTV and GMAI reports were not very favorable. The EONC plunge hurts, but I am still holding.

drchris, Did you catch the new theory on the Yahoo EONC board about ChinaVest distributees liquidating? If that's the reason, and it has nothing to do with fundamentals or the latest quarter, then the current plunge in EONC should be seen as a buying opportunity - once it stops, which we'll recognize by a dropoff in the selling volume.

The good news is ... EONC is becoming a smaller portion of my total portfolio with each passing day!

I've had a pretty bad week overall, but I try not to worry about 1 week. From 8 Jan to 3 Feb, my portfolio was up 7%, while the nasdaq was flat or down a few %. From 3 Feb to today's close, I gave it all back, while the nasdaq is down a few more %. Overall, I'm still beating the market, by a lot when it's up, by a little bit when it's down. I'm OK with that.

I read a lot of good investment philosophy recently at fredhager.com, I recommend starting at this link, and just keep clicking the "next" links at the bottom. Fred's selection criteria is almost completely different than mine, but some of the philosophy is right on, in my opinion. One area where his philosophy and mine definitely agree is about looking for consistently high revenue growth.

http://www.fredhager.com/index.cfm?CategoryID=44&ContentID=319

[stenzrob]

More good reading

GMAI profiled here today - target $20.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=The+Guru's+Corner&siteid=mktw

"In 2004, investors who invest in market leaders delivering high growth rates at a reasonable valuation will be the real winners."

Exactamundo!

[Mi6op]

Stenz and everyone else what do you think of PRFT I found it running Stenz's screen. Rev's growing at 4x%, P/S under 2, good PR just came out about them volume growing. Seems like a good number of positives.

[stenzrob]

Stenz and everyone else what do you think of PRFT I found it running Stenz's screen. Rev's growing at 4x%, P/S under 2, good PR just came out about them volume growing. Seems like a good number of positives.

This looks pretty good, mi6. In my extensive ten second research, the only negative I see is that the company's guidance for Q1'04 is for less revenue than any of the quarters of '03. ?