Stenzrob's specials

[skiracer]

Skiracer, would you hold GEHL thur earning u know they had a negative surprise last earnings. Sirtuck

their overall estimates are higher than last qtr and last year peaking in the qtr ending this june and decreasing after that thru 2008 but still higher than last year. estimates for 2009 are higher than 2008.
to be honest it was a bottom play off the developing cup base formation. i like to catch them there. i was in earlier about 5-6 wks ago and got stopped out. was premature and to early. waited for a re-entry until after it broke thru it's 50 sma. re-entered yesterday at 18.20 after it broke thru the 50. clear sailing until the 100 sma as far as i can see on the daily which is at 22.46 and corresponds almost exactly with the top of the left side of the cup base. that's my target area 22 -22.50 level where i would expect the handle to start forming. that would be my exit point anyway because no sense holding in front of the handle and the drop accompanying that.
i'm going to be watching it closely between now and then. to answer you question about holding thru earnings. not sure which will come first. reaching the 100 sma at 22 and my target or the earnings report. i don't think i would hold thru earning if i'm close to the target level. if i get another point or two between now and then i would be happy with the trade. if it gets that far and the earnings report is decent and doesn't screw things up i would wait for the handle to form and then look to catch the breakout. alot would have to fall into place.

[stenzrob]

Industry performance

Just found an interesting page at marketwatch:

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/industry/

This shows which industriy sectors are doing best and worst over a time period that you can select. For three months, there are some top performing industries that didn't surprise me, like precious metals, coal, mining, etc. The one that surprised me a bit, though, was Home Construction Index, up 36.8% in the last 3 months.

Clicking through to the components of the index, all the usual names are there - Pulte, Horton, Hovnanian, Ryland - all up 40% or more in the last 3 months.

Could it be that this is the time to be buying homebuilders? If the market looks 6 months out as it has been said, then all the news out right now about continuing price drops and slow sales could be signalling the bottom for the homebuilders. I gotta' go look at some numbers, but if anybody is reading this and thinks that now is the time to be buying the homebuilders, I'd like to hear from you.

[IIC]

Just found an interesting page at marketwatch:

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/industry/

This shows which industriy sectors are doing best and worst over a time period that you can select. For three months, there are some top performing industries that didn't surprise me, like precious metals, coal, mining, etc. The one that surprised me a bit, though, was Home Construction Index, up 36.8% in the last 3 months.

Clicking through to the components of the index, all the usual names are there - Pulte, Horton, Hovnanian, Ryland - all up 40% or more in the last 3 months.

Could it be that this is the time to be buying homebuilders? If the market looks 6 months out as it has been said, then all the news out right now about continuing price drops and slow sales could be signalling the bottom for the homebuilders. I gotta' go look at some numbers, but if anybody is reading this and thinks that now is the time to be buying the homebuilders, I'd like to hear from you.

I wouldn't touch a homebuilder

[stenzrob]

Bought some EXAC at $26.90.

EXAC report due out after the close tonight, conference call tomorrow morning.

[stenzrob]

I wouldn't touch a homebuilder

Thanks for the input, Doug. I just saw this up on marketwatch, and plan to read it tomorrow while my son takes the SAT.

[IIC]

Well...I can think of no reason why homebuilders would do any good in the foreseeable future...Extended loans are only gonna prolong the agony...Reduced prices will raise a little cash...But I don't see much good here until AT LEAST 2010...Maybe longer.

[stenzrob]

EXAC report due out after the close tonight, conference call tomorrow morning.

Out of EXAC at 27.23 for +1.23%.
Looking to maybe buyback at the bottom of the rising trendlines.

[stenzrob]

Bought some QID today, my guess is that the little bounce of the index off the test of January low is not going to hold. The markets are headed for new lows, IMHO, and so I bought some QID at $52.80.

Also bought a little bit of penny stock QTWW at $0.94,
more like gambling than anything else.

[billyjoe]

Stenz,
Good move with the QID buy. I wouldn't trust this market as far as I could throw a brick sh#@house. And that's what they'll be operating out of before long if this keeps up.

---------billyjoe

[stenzrob]

Billyjoe, The annoying thing is, I had this pegged before the big drop, but I wasn't able to move fast enough to take advantage of it. See my earlier post on 2/27 with an annotated nasdaq chart where I was getting primed to get back into QID.

[stenzrob]

Last friday, I sold out everything I had been holding ... except QID.

[IIC]

Last friday, I sold out everything I had been holding ... except QID.

Glad to hear it...Doug

[stenzrob]

Out of COIN at $12.90. (+29.0%)
Out of SDTH at $11.22. (-20.9%)

Had been kickin' myself over COIN as it continued to run, but it may finally have run out of "bigger fools" today when someone pointed this out at seeking alpha. I feel lucky to have traded it profitably several times during it's run, and never lost a dime on it.

[IIC]

Had been kickin' myself over COIN as it continued to run, but it may finally have run out of "bigger fools" today when someone pointed this out at seeking alpha. I feel lucky to have traded it profitably several times during it's run, and never lost a dime on it.

I sold COIN last Monday from a buy the previous Friday...Made some nice COIN but it kept going and my wife gave me a hard time...UNTIL TODAY!!!

I also dt'd it today for +.12...Heck...I'll take it on the 1 min. techs...After that I was busy all day.

Watch CCC

[mrmarket]

I miss Stenzrob