Stenzrob's specials

[IIC]

Tough market

[stenzrob]

Just bought a bunch of QMAR at $21.75.
Unless there's something I'm just not seeing, this looks like free money.

[stenzrob]

Bought some SIGM for $46.00.

SIGM seemed to be holding up alright, but dropped this morning. Chatter on the yahoo board (90% of which is noise, but there are nuggets to be found) says some institutions might be pissed off due to option repricing, so I checked the SEC filings. Sure enough, officers were awarded options back in November with strike prices of $58.37. 4/A's filed yesterday repriced those options on 1/25 to $45.83. Why? I've got to admit that I'm a little pissed off about this, too.

[stenzrob]

Due probably partially to being pissed about the option repricing, I dumped SIGM this morning at $42.40 for a 7.8% loss from my buy point at $46. At the time, it looked like the market was just bouncing from the low open, and for all I could tell, everything including SIGM would fizzle and run down. This didn't turn out to be the case, and SIGM is now back up nicely to around $45.50. You know what, though? I'm still glad to be out of it, because I now do not trust the execs to act in the best interests of the shareholders.

QMAR has continued up. My position from $21.75, even having bought well after the acquisition announcment, is now up over 10.5%. But most of it seems to be because all the dry shippers are up strong (QMAR, EXM, DRYS, DSX). QMAR is still selling at a 17% discount to the value of the acquisition if it closed today.

[stenzrob]

I don't understand why QMAR continue to sell at a discount to the deal price, discount varies from 17 to 20%. Yesterday, QMAR rose by less than 0.4084 off EXM's rise, and today QMAR is down by more than EXM's pullback. Since I am not understanding this, I decided to lighten up.

I sold 1/3 of the position that I took at 21.75, for 23.15 (+6.4%).

This, along with untimely sales of ZRAN and SIGM, also serves to raise cash for an expected re-entry into QID (or some other ultrashort ETF) in a day or two. If I sit on the cash for a few days, it gives me the flexibility to exit a position if it goes wrong without triggering trading restrictions in the account.

[stenzrob]

Bought some COIN at $10.

[stenzrob]

Bought some NTWK at $2.66.

[stenzrob]

I don't understand why QMAR continue to sell at a discount to the deal price, discount varies from 17 to 20%. Yesterday, QMAR rose by less than 0.4084 off EXM's rise, and today QMAR is down by more than EXM's pullback. Since I am not understanding this, I decided to lighten up.

I sold 1/3 of the position that I took at 21.75, for 23.15 (+6.4%).

Sold another 1/3 at $23.45. That leaves me with a "normal sized" position in QMAR (20% of self-directed portion of IRA), rather than triple my usual position.

Holding QMAR, COIN, NTWK and 40% cash in the IRA.
Also LUNA in the other account.

[Clarkstondude]

I was in QMAR for a few days but cashed out and didn't go back in. Everything was pointing up but the markets make all rules, charting, tech analysis and just plain luck obsolete. Wasn't even near its resistance levels yet... Hoping my STP opens on a gap up to recoup some late afternoon loss but I wouldn't be surprised to see slippage either.

[stenzrob]

Clarkstondude, I plan to hold my remaining QMAR until the acquisition is completed or the price gets within 5% of the deal formula. There is always the risk that it will fall through, but this seems like less of a risk than the risk associated with any other stock.

[stenzrob]

The last time that the S&P500 50 day ema crossed below the 400 day ema was December 2000. It might be an interesting year or so ahead.

[stenzrob]

Bought some WATG today at 9.43.
Tried to get some for 9.20, but "they" started playing games with me.

[Clarkstondude]

QID is going crazy in after hours! Glad I didn't cash out today

[stenzrob]

I'm out of QID and long a few other things right now, none of which are doing very well, I have to admit.

Longer-term I'm bearish and QID is a great way to play that trend.

Shorter term, though, I expect that "bargain hunting" will hold or drive up the indexes to either the 50 day or 200 day moving averages, which they are currently well below. The kind of action I expect is similar to market behavior in early 2001.

[stenzrob]

I don't understand why QMAR continue to sell at a discount to the deal price, discount varies from 17 to 20%.

With QMAR holding up better than EXM over the last several days, the QMAR discount to deal closing price relative to EXM's current share price is now down to 14%.
($13 + 0.4084 x 32.90 = $26.44)

I plan to hold QMAR until the discount is less than 5%, unless EXM falls enough to drive the deal closing price below my QMAR buy price.