Stenzrob's specials

[stenzrob]

Another brief article today highlighting EXP as "Bargain Growth".

http://www.forbes.com/2007/01/16/dsf-chea-growth-pf-ii-cx_sw_0116sf.html

[stenzrob]

EXP is moving nicely this week. Given the valuation (PEG=0.4), and that ROE is like 40%, this one could have the potential to go quite a ways before stopping.

Currently holding CRDN, EXP, PTEN, IMOS.
Considering SIM, BLUD, VDSI, BOOM, all of which I have traded profitably in the last several months, but am currently out.

[stenzrob]

I think CRDN is on sale here.. Grabbed me some..

Hey Runner,
Did you see where Cramer had Joel Moskowitz, Ceradyne CEO, on the phone yesterday? He asked Joel very pointedly about the statements made by FBR in their downgrade, and Joel answered each point and basically said that the analyst at FBR had it wrong. Now, I don't put a lot of faith in Cramer, but in this case, I think he performed a valuable service by doing in public what a lot of individual shareholders might want to do - ask the CEO about the doubts raised by the analyst and give him an opportunity to respond. There is a link to the video at the Yahoo headlines page.
regards ... stenz

[stenzrob]

SPIL, IMOS and AMKR - chip assembly and testing

I was just looking over some stocks that I had traded and then set aside to check later, as it is now later. I traded SPIL on a breakout late last year, buying at $6.47 on 10/31 and selling at $7.28 on 11/22 for a 12.5% gain. The sell was triggered by a stop I entered before going on vacation. It looks like it's breaking out again on the strong tech sector performance today. It's got good fundamentals and valuation, the problem I'm having is that it's in the same business as IMOS, which I already own. I'm thinking that either one is as good as the other, although SPIL is a lot bigger. AMKR is also in the same business, but that one tends to be more volatile, and they've got massive amounts of debt according to the usual online sources of such data, so that would make me nervous. One more bigger competitior is ASX, which the Carlyle group has offered to buy. Using the "Competitors" view at Yahoo, ASX was the only one that shows a PEG as low as IMOS. So, it just brings me back to my agreement with the Forbes article "Buy ChipMOS on the cheap" with which I agree.

Net result of all this blabbering - I'm sticking with IMOS. Just thought I'd share why I'm sticking with this one as opposed to some others in the same business. It comes down to fundamentals. It also doesn't hurt that IMOS is the only one of these with an "Acc/Dis" rating of "A", which is just a confirmation of what I said about IMOS earlier, that it is approaching a new high on consistently above average volume since 12/15 when they raised Q4 guidance for revenue and gross margin.

[stenzrob]

Tsra

I just bought some TSRA at $38.48.
Analysts are mixed about it, but I read that Jim Oberweis likes it and believes they could surprise to the upside when they report at the end of the month. Earnings are lumpy, but trending up. ROE and margins are healthy. Any new license agreements pump large amounts of cash to the bottom line. This is one of my riskier positions.

[stenzrob]

Sim

Bought some SIM yesterday for $14.70.
First bought this back in May'06 under $7 and sold out in December at over $16. Looks to me like the correction is over, and other steel companies, including STLD and riverbabe's ATI have done well recently.

[stenzrob]

Bought some SIM yesterday for $14.70.
First bought this back in May'06 under $7 and sold out in December at over $16. Looks to me like the correction is over, and other steel companies, including STLD and riverbabe's ATI have done well recently.

Forbes article about the steel industry today.

http://www.forbes.com/2007/01/30/steel-stocks-earnings-markets-equity-cx_jl_0130markets15.html

"Steel stocks are starting to reflect a more optimistic outlook for 2007 and investors could reap the benefits."

Also, Tata just outbid a Brazilian company to acquire a big UK steelmaker.

[stenzrob]

EXP guides down

EXP had a very nice day, but then they reported.

Beat the estimates by a small amount, but guided Q4 below estimates.
I just dumped it after hours at $47.86. This way, I don't have to worry about it anymore.

Since I bought at $42.45 on 11/15, and was given a dividend on 1/26, I can live with this. $47.86 is also slightly above where it opened this morning.

[stenzrob]

I just bought some TSRA at $38.48.
Analysts are mixed about it, but I read that Jim Oberweis likes it and believes they could surprise to the upside when they report at the end of the month. Earnings are lumpy, but trending up. ROE and margins are healthy. Any new license agreements pump large amounts of cash to the bottom line. This is one of my riskier positions.

TSRA also reported today after the close, after announcing an acquisition this morning. After hours indicates a strong open tomorrow, I'll hold this one and see how it goes.

[stenzrob]

TSRA also reported today after the close, after announcing an acquisition this morning. After hours indicates a strong open tomorrow, I'll hold this one and see how it goes.

This one seems to be working out OK so far.

[peanuts]

This one seems to be working out OK so far.

Congrats on your 1000th post to your thread!!!

Wait... I thought we were suppposed to contribute to me reaching 2000...

hey, you wanna race?

[stenzrob]

Congrats on your 1000th post to your thread!!!

Wait... I thought we were suppposed to contribute to me reaching 2000...

hey, you wanna race?

You're way too prolific for me to compete, peanuts.
My thread has 1000 posts on 100 pages.
A numerologist could have a field day with that!
But hey, why does your thread have more posts, but mine has like 4 times as many "views" ?
I wonder if it counts if I keep hitting F5 to refresh, just to see if I have posted anything new while I wasn't looking.

[stenzrob]

Blud

bought some BLUD yesterday at $32.50

[Websman]

bought some BLUD yesterday at $32.50

Looks like BLUD may bounce off the 50 day MA at 30.78, before continuing up. I may join you, if that happens. I think you'll still come out ahead, if you're willing to hang on.

I'm holding RWC from 6.13...it's not looking great at this point, but could it could always turn around when I least expect it.

[stenzrob]

Looks like BLUD may bounce off the 50 day MA at 30.78, before continuing up. I may join you, if that happens. I think you'll still come out ahead, if you're willing to hang on.

I'm holding RWC from 6.13...it's not looking great at this point, but could it could always turn around when I least expect it.

I'm still holding that BLUD stake. It's still in an uptrend, although I didn't time it very well.

I am liking the IMOS action since the stock swapping deal with SPIL was announced. The drop that wasn't looking good was now, I believe, some kind of pre-announcement maneuvering on somebody's part. Another dime or so to $7.50 with the volume continuing could make this look very much like a breakout.