Stenzrob's specials

[stenzrob]

ACU bounced off the 50 day moving average again. If the future can be predicted from the past, there should be healthy gains in the next few weeks.

[stenzrob]

Made a bit of an adjustment today - lightened up on PRFT, now only 40% of my total portfolio, was 60%. (not exactly a paniced dash to the exit)

Finally bought some SFCC, after MM already made his money on it long ago, it's been on and off my screen for probably a year or more. Looks good for another 50% gain from here. Paid $41.50 for it.

[stenzrob]

Made a bit of an adjustment today - lightened up on PRFT, now only 40% of my total portfolio, was 60%. (not exactly a paniced dash to the exit)

Once again, my timing is impeccable, NOT. The very next day after I lighten up a bit, PRFT jumps over 5% on heavier than usual volume for the morning hours. Oh well. One time I sold on what appeared to be a stall and bought back again almost 10% lower, then sold it again before it took off. I still made more on the sell, buy, sell round trip than I have not made on this morning's pop.

[stenzrob]

PRFT setting a new high today.
My $4 buy is now up over 125%.

This makes up for the occasional faux pas, and is the nature of my game.

[stocks54]

PRFT - Seconday Offering

AUSTIN, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 7, 2005--Perficient, Inc. (NASDAQ: PRFT - News), a leading information technology consulting firm in the central United States, today announced the filing of a registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a proposed public offering of 5,032,600 shares of its common stock, of which 4,250,000 shares will be offered by Perficient and 782,600 shares will be offered by certain non-affiliate selling stockholders. The registration statement also covers the underwriters' option to purchase up to 267,390 additional shares of common stock from the company and up to 487,500 shares to be offered by certain stockholders, some of whom are affiliates of the company, to cover over-allotments, if any.


- Stenz what's your take on the seconday offering?

Regards,

[stenzrob]

- Stenz what's your take on the seconday offering?

I generally don't like secondaries. They can really kill a good run. The only time I saw a stock do well in the several months following one was SINT. Usually when a company announces a secondary, I dump it and never look back. PRFT clearly intends to use the proceeds for more acquisitions to fuel their rapid growth.

I sold a little over half of my remaining PRFT for $8.41 this morning. I still like PRFT a lot, and will be watching to see how it behaves. Check my post #10706 on the Yahoo PRFT board.

[stocks54]

Thanks

Stenz,

Thanks for your comments.

Regards,
Stocks...

[stenzrob]

Made a bit of an adjustment today - lightened up on PRFT, now only 40% of my total portfolio, was 60%. (not exactly a paniced dash to the exit)

Finally bought some SFCC, after MM already made his money on it long ago, it's been on and off my screen for probably a year or more. Looks good for another 50% gain from here. Paid $41.50 for it.

Well, this turned out to be an exciting few weeks. I lightened up on PRFT, just before it broke out. Then PRFT filed for a secondary offering and has taken a hit. I diversified out of PRFT into SFCC, who just filed today for a secondary offering. As soon as I realized it, I bailed out of SFCC immediately for about a 4% loss.

I hate secondaries. These can really kill a run.

[stocks54]

Prft

I sold all my PRFT shares at $7.32. I wish I could have sold shares day after the secondary announcement, could have made more profit. I got greedy HOPING that this secondary would be different than others.

Regards,

[stenzrob]

I sold all my PRFT shares at $7.32. I wish I could have sold shares day after the secondary announcement, could have made more profit. I got greedy HOPING that this secondary would be different than others.

Regards,

I got out higher than that, but also had been thinking that this time might be different, and delayed a little bit. It was not. Apparently, this is the year that the market has chosen to teach me the lesson about secondaries, and whack my knuckles with the ruler anytime I give the wrong answer.

In all cases but one (SINT), the effect of a secondary on stock price has been the same. I have been nailed by this on APTI, LINK, SFCC, and PRFT. Most of these I made a profit on, because I had been riding them up for at least several months prior to the announcement, but the drop on the secondary took some off the top. My policy is now to sell immediately on any such announcement. No questions, no further thought, nothing - secondary announced => sell.

[stocks54]

Next time any stocks that I am holding files for secondary I will sell my position right away.

Any plan of getting into SFCC? I know NTGR is in your watch list. Any plan of opening a position.

As always thank for your helpful & detailed posts.

Regards,

[stenzrob]

New positions

Next time any stocks that I am holding files for secondary I will sell my position right away.

Any plan of getting into SFCC? I know NTGR is in your watch list. Any plan of opening a position.

As always thank for your helpful & detailed posts.

Regards,

Waiting for a 30 day wash on SFCC - I missed the looming secondary, and took a small loss when I discovered it. Then I will take another look at it. NTGR is indeed on my watchlist, but it hasn't really fired my imagination and I don't have a plan to open a position. I keep watching it, though.

I did actually open 3 new positions in the last few days - since dumping PRFT and SFCC positions, I have actually been at almost 80% cash for the last several weeks, and I think it's time to get back in.

The 3 new positions are: SYXI, EFJI, and LCRY. All have shown up in the not too dustant past on my screen and I jad been just watching. SYXI looks about ready to break out to me, EFJI is consolidating after a strong pop - I remember PRFT doing this also before advancing strongly before shooting itself in the foot with the secondary.

LCRY is another story altogether. This had shown up on my screen, and I'm familiar with the products and company from a previous life. Just another ticker on the watchlist. Then, all of a sudden, it broke down and I have really no idea why. I watched with morbid curiosity as it dropped through every moving average. It broke down through 50 day a few weeks ago at $23, and accelerated after breaking through the 200 at $20. My take is that this bottomed on the desperate race for the exit yesterday, bouncing cleanly and convincingly to me off $15. Picked it up at $17 yesterday afternoon. Either something is seriously wrong here that's not public, or this is a great opportunity. The company has been growing steadily, and making the occasional strategic acquisition. They showed a loss on paper last quarter due to one-time accounting for recent acquisition, but the plummet of the last few weeks has put them at price/sales of 1.5 and price/book of 2.0. I'm not going to hold this forever. I'm already up a few percent, so I'll set a mental stop at breakeven and if it starts to drop again, I'll bail out.

regards ... stenz

[skiracer]

Stenzrob,
Just noticed that you're from Cherry Hill, NJ. I'm just down the street, the street being Rt. 70, from you in Toms River. Many pleasant memories of Cherry Hill, NJ. There was a time when I was at Garden State Racetrack everyday. It was like my office. My mother an Uncle Paulie were big fans of the races an I would take her everyday to meet him at the track during the season. My dad worked at Boeing aircraft in Ardmore, PA and would meet us at the track for the last 3 races everyday during the season. I'd like to have a nickel for every show I went to at the Latin Casino, especially after a winning day. I guess I just dated myself, but those were some of the best days of my life. Had alot of great friends from South Phila. area and that was our regular meeting place during the summer racing season at Garden State.

[stocks54]

Efji

Purchased some EFJI at 8.89.

Regards,
Stocks...

[stenzrob]

Stenzrob,
Just noticed that you're from Cherry Hill, NJ. I'm just down the street, the street being Rt. 70, from you in Toms River. Many pleasant memories of Cherry Hill, NJ. There was a time when I was at Garden State Racetrack everyday. It was like my office. My mother an Uncle Paulie were big fans of the races an I would take her everyday to meet him at the track during the season. My dad worked at Boeing aircraft in Ardmore, PA and would meet us at the track for the last 3 races everyday during the season. I'd like to have a nickel for every show I went to at the Latin Casino, especially after a winning day. I guess I just dated myself, but those were some of the best days of my life. Had alot of great friends from South Phila. area and that was our regular meeting place during the summer racing season at Garden State.

I moved to Cherry Hill only about 5 years ago - by then the Garden State racetrack had become a flea market with an empty building. Now it's a hige expanse of nothing but dirt.