Stenzrob's specials

[stenzrob]

OK, so I lied. Just to play around, I sold 20% of my PRFT position today at $7.94, since it looked like it wasn't breaking through the $8 barrier this week. I have an order in to get those shares back at $7.30, which is a guess at where the lower trendline will be as this gem circles around for another assault on the gates.

Got those shares back today at $7.30 as planned.

[tokyojoeskid]

qvdx

A loser for the both of us stenz has shown some recent strength, I wonder what's up with Qvdx

[stenzrob]

A loser for the both of us stenz has shown some recent strength, I wonder what's up with Qvdx

Unless my memory is failing, I never actually lost money on QVDX - I sold on some technical weakness after much less profit than I had been fantasizing about, shortly before the crash. It does look to be recovering, but I probably won't spend any time looking at it.

[stenzrob]

Just bought some ACU for $17. Lower average volume than I usually look for.
Also bought some TCOW recently for $1.00.

[Tsevni98]

ACU and TCOW

i dont see those on your most recent screener http://tinyurl.com/4wcqf

where did you come up with those two??

thanks

[stenzrob]

i dont see those on your most recent screener http://tinyurl.com/4wcqf

where did you come up with those two??

thanks

Got ACU from an article by Peter Brimelow on marketwatch comparing results of Coolcat (Kennedy) and Louis Navellier newsletter results.

http://tinyurl.com/3kwku

Got TCOW from a list of new 52-week highs a few weeks ago, and watched for a pullback.

[noshadyldy]

Got ACU from an article by Peter Brimelow on marketwatch comparing results of Coolcat (Kennedy) and Louis Navellier newsletter results.

http://tinyurl.com/3kwku

Got TCOW from a list of new 52-week highs a few weeks ago, and watched for a pullback.

Thanks Stenzrob! I like the look of the ACU chart. Also, i went and read that article and interestingly enough, NGPS, our old nemesis heartbreaker, is a BUY!

[stenzrob]

Thanks Stenzrob! I like the look of the ACU chart. Also, i went and read that article and interestingly enough, NGPS, our old nemesis heartbreaker, is a BUY!

Also ANTP, which someone here mentioned before, and DECK, one of $$$MR_MARKET$$$'s picks a while back.

PRFT is moving up this morning, apparently this was mentioned on CNBC by Bjurman, Barry manager yesterday, though I did not see it.

[noshadyldy]

Also ANTP, which someone here mentioned before, and DECK, one of $$$MR_MARKET$$$'s picks a while back.

PRFT is moving up this morning, apparently this was mentioned on CNBC by Bjurman, Barry manager yesterday, though I did not see it.

Stenz,
In being interested in his "january" pics, I'm assuming that this Navelier is a 'holder" at least for a while, not a rapid trader???

[noshadyldy]

Stenz,
In being interested in his "january" pics, I'm assuming that this Navelier is a 'holder" at least for a while, not a rapid trader???

hmmmmmm... don't know if I'm too impressed with this Navelier. I took a closer look at his pics for January. Providing they came out the very beginning of January (or end Dec.) he's had a couple of real stinkers in there. For example, he called NGPS and ANTP RIGHT BEFORE THEY TANKED! Not saying he doesn't pic good solid stocks, but his timing really rots!

[billyjoe]

noshadyldy,

I checked out some Navelier picks a couple years ago and tracked them for a month or two. They were so bad it was shocking. Not joking, you couldn't do worse if you tried. Lots of major tanks. A name I'll remember.

billyjoe

[noshadyldy]

noshadyldy,

I checked out some Navelier picks a couple years ago and tracked them for a month or two. They were so bad it was shocking. Not joking, you couldn't do worse if you tried. Lots of major tanks. A name I'll remember.

billyjoe

Well that was a short romance. Ugh!

[stenzrob]

noshadyldy,

I checked out some Navelier picks a couple years ago and tracked them for a month or two. They were so bad it was shocking. Not joking, you couldn't do worse if you tried. Lots of major tanks. A name I'll remember.

billyjoe

Read the whole article I posted the link for, it mentions the risk and volatility of both Navellier and Coolcat. Going WAY, WAY back, perhaps even to the Yahoo group version of this site, I clearly stated that my screen was based on an article or two that I had read about Coolcat's picking and timing technique. Long term, Navallier's (and Coolcat's) results blow away all averages, according to the analysis done by Brimelow over a long period.

This is further argument for both diversification and for holding something unless the premise on which you bought it becomes invalid. Right now, for example, I'm down 5.5% on ACU, down 11% on TCOW, but up over 80% on PRFT so far. If you go back over my picks, you'll find some real clunkers, as well. You'll also find 200 to 300% gains on several. I'm hoping to learn from every success and every failure.

Any opinions on either ACU or TCOW?

[jiesen]

Read the whole article I posted the link for, it mentions the risk and volatility of both Navellier and Coolcat.

This is for those of you too lazy/busy to spend the 5 minutes signing up for Marketwatch.com's nifty service and free offers.

Cats, hares -- and steady hares

By Peter Brimelow, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Jan. 13, 2005
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Does fast and steady win the race?

Recently, I named Louis Navellier's MPT Review as Investment Letter of the Year.

(See my Dec. 27 column)

He promptly renamed it Emerging Growth.

A reader asked how Navellier compared to Kevin Kennedy's Coolcat Explosive Small Cap Growth Stock Report.

This was an excellent question.

Not only do the two letters use a form of momentum approach and take a lot of risk, but they also both broke the curve of long-run investment appreciation.

Mark Hulbert's monitoring of investment letters over nearly 25 years suggests that 15 to 20 percent annualized is the very most you can expect.

But even as late as last year, Coolcat's average portfolio growth since 1999 (when the HFD started following him) was an amazing 40.7 percent annualized.

But 2004 was hard on Coolcat -- down 1.6 percent vs. the dividend reinvested Wilshire 5000's 12.6 percent gain.

That brought his overall average portfolio appreciation down to a mere 35.5 percent.

Phooey!

Louis Navellier Emerging Growth/MPT has an average portfolio growth since Mark Hulbert started monitoring it in 1984 of 20.5 percent. Through November of last year alone, he was up nearly 24 percent.

The key difference between the two letters: Navellier never times the market. He is always fully invested.

But Kennedy tries to do everything. He not only tries to pick stocks way out on the risk frontier -- he also tries to time the market.

He even goes short, unlike Navellier. Successful shorting extended his winning streak during the market break in 2002. (See my Aug. 8 2002 column)

Kennedy's winning streak extended a long time. Remember, overall he's still up that 35.5 percent annualized over the past five years -- and five years is our rough threshold for taking letters seriously. (The total return Wilshire was down just over 1 percent annualized.)

And Coolcat is significantly ahead of Navellier, who had a (relatively) hard time in the bear market -- up slightly more than 10 percent annualized.

In fact, as of now, Coolcat hasn't even had the dramatic downswings of OTC Insight, a very similar letter to MPT Review, but riskier. It has been bouncing back and to from our top 10 best performers and top 10 worst performers for several years. (See my Dec. 23 column).

And yet OTC Insight's record by Hulbert Financial Digest count is cumulatively strong over the long term.



It may be that Coolcat won't suffer what might appear to be the usual wages of risk.

After all, another letter editor burst on the scene with a curve-breaking performance, them settled down to being merely outstanding -- Louis Navellier, 20 years ago.

Conclusion: Coolcat may land on all four paws -- possibly involving some giddy gyrations.

Conversely, it's not that Navellier doesn't take risk. The Hulbert Financial Digest estimates that his portfolios have been over 90 percent more volatile than the market. But Coolcat has been more than 180 percent as risky.

In the long run, over many years, Navellier's use of risk just seems to have been consistently judicious.

So it's not a question of hares and tortoises. Navellier is a hare too -- but a steady one.

Navellier has 50 stocks on his current buy list. These are the ones he added in January.

Acme United (ACU: news, chart, profile)

Cummis (CMI: news, chart, profile)

Deckers Outdoor (DECK: news, chart, profile)

Dialysis Corp of America (DCAI: news, chart, profile)

Friedman Industries (FRD: news, chart, profile)

G Willi-Food (WILCF: news, chart, profile)

Ipsco (IPS: news, chart, profile)

Nordic American Tanker Shipping (NAT: news, chart, profile)

Novatel (NGPS: news, chart, profile)

Phazar (ANTP: news, chart, profile)

Rotonics Manufacturing (RMI: news, chart, profile)

Sun Hydraulics (SNHY: news, chart, profile)

Editor's note: The most recent edition of the Hulbert Financial Digest is available by e-mail or regular mail. Highlights include:

• Honor pays: The HFD 2005 investment newsletter honor roll
• Performance table: Newsletter grades in up and down markets
• Profiles: Richard E. Band's Profitable Investing, Sound Advice and Standard & Poor's Outlook

[stenzrob]

Thanks jiesen. Some may be too lazy/busy to get there, I was just too lazy/busy to cut&paste it!