Stenzrob's specials

[stocks54]

I read his comments on NTST message board.

[stenzrob]

Hey guys. Just thought I'd drop by again, it's been a while.

My current favorite and largest holding is VTIV. Also in CRDN, RIO and CFK, and just posted on another thread about a small position I've had in TCX for quite a while.

best regards to all ... stenz

[jiesen]

hey stenz, long time no see! Welcome back! I remember checking out VTIV from 20-24 maybe a year ago. Looked good to me then, but I never took the plunge. How's it coming along nowadays? The revenues and profits seem to be coming in pretty good, any sign of it picking up more from here?

[IIC]

Hey guys. Just thought I'd drop by again, it's been a while.

My current favorite and largest holding is VTIV. Also in CRDN, RIO and CFK, and just posted on another thread about a small position I've had in TCX for quite a while.

best regards to all ... stenz

Good to see you Stenz...I still have WITS...sort of dragged down my overall performance last year as it was only up 19%. You mention CRDN...I bot that one last month...In at 45.02...My target is 50.

You ought to drop by more often...It seems we are getting some sharp new blood around here...Best, Doug(IIC)

[skiracer]

Hey guys. Just thought I'd drop by again, it's been a while.

My current favorite and largest holding is VTIV. Also in CRDN, RIO and CFK, and just posted on another thread about a small position I've had in TCX for quite a while.

best regards to all ... stenz

Stenzrob,
I've been in an out of VTIV on several occassions over the past 6 months and really do like the stock. A leader in their sector and group. What mystifies me about the stock is that it can't seem to hold above that $27.50 /28 range. I have caught spikes up on earnings reports and other good news but it never seems to be able to hold those levels. Where are you in from? I'm not in it at the moment but have been watching it of late for a move up.

[stenzrob]

I'm in VTIV from $21. It has been frustrating, one of those that I know is worth more, but the market hasn't caught on yet. It was on the IBD100 for a while, but fell off. I believe there is some confusion about growth due to tax benefit, which was accelerated. I posted about this a few times on the VTIV Yahoo board. This was a good thing for their financials, but leaves it looking like there is zero growth going forward. I am confident about the undervaluation and their prospects for real growth, so I will hold until it is realized, and hopefully get out near the top of the next cycle for this industry.

Also, the industry group fell from somewhere near the top of IBD list to near the bottom. I believe that the SFCC soap opera has hurt the industry in the eyes of institutions. If you're not familiar with the SFCC story, I suggest you look into it. It's a story of how a street favorite can fall from grace.

In other not-so-late breaking news, I was in HURC at $15 and sold at $18. Was looking to trade on a swing and botched it bigtime. Yet another argument for NOT selling at 15% gain point.

But, it's not all bad.

From my holdings ...
CFK breakout today.
CRDN breakout today.
RIO breakout today.

[stenzrob]

Sold RIO for a small profit this morning. It rebounded. My reasoning was that poor Alcoa results would cause institutions to move out of metals, weakening the whole group.

Sold CFK on the pop yesterday, looking to trade it.

Bought COGT at $25.40 with the funds from RIO sale. It also rebounded, so far the switch is a wash.

Bought SPIL on weakness today, which may have been due to Merrill Lynch downgrade. I have not seen the downgrade, but the text of it was posted by someone on the Yahoo board. If it's genuine, they did not downgrade based on valuation or business prospects, but just because it's gone up. I've seen this kind of downgrade on other stocks before, and the stock almost always continues on it's trend after a brief glitch of misguided analyst followers jumping off the moving train.

Still holding CRDN and VTIV. All those above I'm trading on opportunity, although any could also be a good hold. VTIV and CRDN are my "investments', which means I'm slower on the trigger.

By the way, IIC, there is an article today at bloomberg about analyst performance in 2005 that mentions WITS.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_dorfman&sid=agx9gqXhiliE

"Analysts' favorite when 2005 began was Witness Systems Inc. (WITS), a Roswell, Georgia, company that makes software to record and monitor calls by customers to company help centers. It rose 13 percent.
...
The other favorites went nowhere. "

regards ... stenz

[MEA_1956]

Good Day Mate

Another one of your old favs that is on a tare is GIGM. Up 43.22% here of late. This is my third time in, first one lost a little, ( it sold offf to fast) second time in at $1.67 and went just over $2.00 ( sold alot faster this time)

Also have my sights on TRCI in hopes HD supplies them with an offer that they can't refuse. Sent HD an email the other day just for shits and giggles and who knows maybe my $150.00 + will pan out.

Here in the next couple of days if you can find the time and you don't mind run your riskey screen, post the top ten and who knows maybe there will be something in there for all of us.

Hope the best for you and yours this year. Marlin

[IIC]

Sold RIO for a small profit this morning. It rebounded. My reasoning was that poor Alcoa results would cause institutions to move out of metals, weakening the whole group.

Sold CFK on the pop yesterday, looking to trade it.

Bought COGT at $25.40 with the funds from RIO sale. It also rebounded, so far the switch is a wash.

Bought SPIL on weakness today, which may have been due to Merrill Lynch downgrade. I have not seen the downgrade, but the text of it was posted by someone on the Yahoo board. If it's genuine, they did not downgrade based on valuation or business prospects, but just because it's gone up. I've seen this kind of downgrade on other stocks before, and the stock almost always continues on it's trend after a brief glitch of misguided analyst followers jumping off the moving train.

Still holding CRDN and VTIV. All those above I'm trading on opportunity, although any could also be a good hold. VTIV and CRDN are my "investments', which means I'm slower on the trigger.

By the way, IIC, there is an article today at bloomberg about analyst performance in 2005 that mentions WITS.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_dorfman&sid=agx9gqXhiliE

"Analysts' favorite when 2005 began was Witness Systems Inc. (WITS), a Roswell, Georgia, company that makes software to record and monitor calls by customers to company help centers. It rose 13 percent.
...
The other favorites went nowhere. "

regards ... stenz

Geez...I had it in my head that it was up 19%...Although my spreadsheet for my portfolio had it right...WITS has been a real drag on my overall portfolio...I will sell at 28.98...I promise...that will be +100%...Hope I don't have to wait till I'm 100 for it to happen...Doug

[stenzrob]

Geez...I had it in my head that it was up 19%...Although my spreadsheet for my portfolio had it right...WITS has been a real drag on my overall portfolio...I will sell at 28.98...I promise...that will be +100%...Hope I don't have to wait till I'm 100 for it to happen...Doug

19%, 13%, it all depends on the start and end dates. Good luck with that $28.98. I expect to be retired before that. LOL!

[stenzrob]

Sold RIO for a small profit this morning.
Bought COGT at $25.40 with the funds from RIO sale.
Bought SPIL on weakness today,
Still holding CRDN and VTIV.

Selling RIO turns out to have been a mistake, but COGT is also doing OK, up over 5% since I bought on Tuesday. There was m&a activity in COGT's business announced today, VISG acquired IDNX. This may be an indication that this is a good business area with lots of growth ahead - biometrics.
SPIL not so good ... yet.
CRDN continues to plow ahead. More mainstream news coverage lately on the need for more body armor certainly doesn't hurt.
If VTIV ever stops basing and starts moving again, I'm gonna' be rich. In the meantime, it just provides "stability" to my portfolio. Translation: My portfolio doesn't gain much despite other good ones while VTIV goes nowhere.

[DSteckler]

The technicals suggest VTIV will be heading lower short-term, Stenzrob. The 200DMA has been strong support.

[stenzrob]

Maybe so, Steckler. Thanks for the input. The reason I keep holding this thing despite lackluster performance is that I'm waiting for another acquisition announcement, or guidance increase, or something to give me one of those big one day pops. That seems to be the history of this one. When it does, I will unload at least half of my position.

[sisterwin2]

]Selling RIO turns out to have been a mistake, but COGT is also doing OK, up over 5% since I bought on Tuesday. There was m&a activity in COGT's business announced today, VISG acquired IDNX. This may be an indication that this is a good business area with lots of growth ahead - biometrics.
SPIL not so good ... yet.
CRDN continues to plow ahead. More mainstream news coverage lately on the need for more body armor certainly doesn't hurt.
If VTIV ever stops basing and starts moving again, I'm gonna' be rich. In the meantime, it just provides "stability" to my portfolio. Translation: My portfolio doesn't gain much despite other good ones while VTIV goes nowhere.[/QUOTE]

I have to ask why RIO is was a mistake, up today? I am long and plan to hold for the yr, nice dividen. Just wondering. Maybe I need to look back at your style.

Ty

[stenzrob]

I have to ask why RIO is was a mistake, up today? I am long and plan to hold for the yr, nice dividen. Just wondering. Maybe I need to look back at your style.

Ty

Perhaps you misunderstood - what turns out to have been a mistake was selling RIO, not having first bought it. I sold RIO because 1) it dropped below the short term upward trendline and 2) I thought that the Alcoa results could cause all metals stocks to stop their strength of the last several months and 3) I had a profit in it having bought it at $44 and didn't want to move from profit to loss, even on paper.

My style is that I find stocks that are growing revs and earnings for a good reason, are still reasonably valued by some metric, and have been increasing in price, and put them on a watch list. Then, if I can be patient, wait for a good opportunity to buy on some weakness. Depending on how strongly I feel about the company's prospects and how well I understand their business, I will hold through temporary paper loss. I will also hold for very large gains when I am fortunate enough to latch onto a winner. But, if there are signs of technical weakness, or I lose faith in the company for some reason, I will sell. Doesn't matter whether that is for a loss, a small gain, or a large gain.

RIO should be a good hold, I just thought there were better opportunities elsewhere, and I just don't have enough finds to hold evrything I like. Over the last two days, RIO has outperformed the COGT I replaced it with, but I feel pretty good about COGT as well.

I make a lot of mistakes. Still learning.