Stenzrob's specials

[stenzrob]

I'm selling some stuff, loss or not. Market hits like this do not recover quickly.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p99148755185

Sold BLUD at 29.25 for 10% loss, CRDN at 51.80 for 8% loss, PTEN at 21.86 for 21% loss, and SIM at 11.20 for 23% loss.

Holding TSRA, AEIS, and MKSI ... for now.

Sold the MKSI today at 23.36. Now at 90% cash.
Basically just waiting now for a bit of a bounce to unload the last two, no hurry. Looking over the ETF ultrashort funds like QID and SSG, may buy one of those. I think the nasdaq is headed to around 2200.

[Websman]

Sold the MKSI today at 23.36. Now at 90% cash.
Basically just waiting now for a bit of a bounce to unload the last two, no hurry. Looking over the ETF ultrashort funds like QID and SSG, may buy one of those. I think the nasdaq is headed to around 2200.

Cash is the only way to go. Shorting may soon be a very profitable strategy.

[stenzrob]

Agreed, webs. This is the way I see it.

[Websman]

Great chart Stenz.

I say, why fight it. I'm already looking for short canidates.

[stenzrob]

Great chart Stenz.

I say, why fight it. I'm already looking for short canidates.

Thanks webs. And thanks to various folks here for turning me on to imageshack and giving instructions on how to post images. I know it's probably a stupid place to do this, but I also just started blogging a bit on myspace, where I also exchange quips with my son and his friends.

http://profile.myspace.com/jbowbee

[Websman]

I'll check it out!

[stenzrob]

sox bounce

Surprised to see a bit of a bounce in the SOX this morning. Took the opportunity to unload the remainder of my positions. Sold AEIS for $19.40 and a 4.4% loss, and TSRA for $39.05 and a miniscule 1.5% gain. TSRA was my only net positive bailout this week, from a just buy below $38.50 back on 1/29.

Now at 100% cash and pondering my alternatives. Sit and wait, or try one of those ultrashort ETF's. (Most of my play money is in an IRA, so I cannot short directly. Checking with Schwab to see if I can go long on a short fund with it.)

regards ... stenz

[stenzrob]

I have to play this the way I see it, and not by just sitting on the sidelines. Accordingly, I just bought some shares of QID at 56.90. For those who may not already know, QID is an "ultrashort" ETF that aims to inverse track 2x the QQQ (nasdaq 100).

According to the chart I posted above, the nasdaq is likely to fall at least another 10% over the next two to three months before reversing. If that happens, this would produce a gain of about 20% in QID. This is the first time I've tried this - we'll see how it goes. I considered SSG, 2xInverse of sox, but trading volume in that ETF is quite low. ProShares has a variety of ultrashort ETF's.

In previous market corrections, I have either stubbornly held my positions because I refused to believe the market could drag down the stocks of fundamentally sound and/or undervalued companies (wrong, stupid), or I would sell most or all and invariably jump back in prematurely after a bit of a decline. By holding a position on the short side, I can alter my psychology and join websman in reveling in the misfortune of others. As long as QID advances, I may feel no urgency about getting back in on the long side.

[stenzrob]

I am still short the market via the QID ultrashort ETF, still believing there's more to fall. Today, the markets opened higher, but hit resistance and volume was lower than the last several days. Volume picked up later in the day - as the day's gains were cut in half.

[stenzrob]

Volume running higher again today - on a down day. Just the kind of action that my market short position likes!

Having bought QID at about $56.90, I am still in the red, but the trend still looks right.

[stenzrob]

I knew this guy

http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/index.ssf?/base/news-11/117350706462280.xml&coll=1

The family attends my church, two daughters quite often dropped off for Sunday School by the limo. If you google the name; in addition to articles like this one, and about SEC actions, you find various charitable and political contributions and boards of charitable "society-type" organizations, like the Philadelphia Youth Orchestra. A real wheeler-dealer player, until recently.

[stenzrob]

Yesterday looked like the beginning of a new rally attempt, but if you follow the handful of intraday updates that include relative volume (available online at a well known but her unnamed site), the volume was running much higher as the indices dove, then lightened up considerably as they bounced and ended higher. The market still looks like it's just waiting for any excuse to selloff again to me, so I will remain in my ultrashort position for now.

I noticed that Doug also pointed out last night that "If the technicals are right this will not be a pretty picture over the next week.". I agree.

regards .. stenz

[stenzrob]

... The market still looks like it's just waiting for any excuse to selloff again to me, so I will remain in my ultrashort position for now. ...

OOPS.
Market liked fed inaction and virtually no change in bias?

[stenzrob]

Bad news in housing well received by my QID ultrashort position. This could still payoff. In the meantime, I took a long position in DRAX last Thursday 3/22 at $6.18. It's in the green right now, and has been upgraded and/or had price targets raised by two analysts since then after their analyst and investor day that day.

These are my only positions right now.

[peanuts]

Bad news in housing well received by my QID ultrashort position. This could still payoff. In the meantime, I took a long position in DRAX last Thursday 3/22 at $6.18. It's in the green right now, and has been upgraded and/or had price targets raised by two analysts since then after their analyst and investor day that day.

These are my only positions right now.

Funny. They both started heading down right after you posted this.

Karma has a way of revealing itself in occasionally humorous irony