Stenzrob's specials

[stenzrob]

Catch a falling knife

Just bought some CRDN at $42.10.

It has done nothing but go straight down for about a month now, from $75 to here. Volume today is particularly high, but the intraday showed some strong volume buying at the bottom. This suggests to me a combination of capitulation and institutions stepping in. Also, the company has announced today an update call for next week, the outline of topics all sounded positive - reiteration, and positive news on several fronts.

I have a mixed history with this stock.
Bought this on 12/20/05 for 43.75, and sold on 2/3/06 for 56.75. (+29.7%)
Bought again on 2/6/06 for 52.40, and sold on 7/6/06 for 54.63. (+4.3%)
Bought again on 7/19/06 for 49.00, and sold on 9/1/06 for 44.43. (-9.3%)
Bought again on 12/5/06 for 56.55, and sold on 3/1/07 for 51.80. (-8.4%)

Then I sat out of it while it ran to over $80 and back down almost to $40.

[stenzrob]

just sold LUNA at $7.98. (+10.2% from buy on 10/31)

Why?
Got in it for the momentum, sat through some underwater time, was lucky enough for it to move back up nicely. I was beginning to really like the company, etc. and to think about future potential ... in other words, I was falling in love with it, and that wasn't why I bought it.

[stenzrob]

Bought VDSI at $21.04.

50% cut on 2 cent miss is overdone, as a result it's had three analyst upgrades in the last 2 weeks.
It will be a long time before it gets back to $44, but from here it's not far to $25, which would be almost 20%.

I decided to stop using my 52 week high momentum method while the market is in correction and instead am looking at bargains, like CRDN and VDSI. Each has technical features that also may be signalling a reversal (or could just be a trap!).

[stenzrob]

Bought VDSI at $21.04.

Sold this at $21.67 for a quick 3%. Just want to see if I can either get this back for less or find something else. The climb out of the hole may go more slowly than I would like.

[stenzrob]

AVAV trend

An update to this chart, if I had time to do one, would show AVAV back near the lower end of the declining channel. I'll wait a bit longer before giving it another shot.

[stenzrob]

Just bought some CRDN at $42.10.

Had some good luck on this one so far. $42.10 is looking like pretty darn close to the bottom, I didn't catch a falling knife, I picked it up off the floor just after it stuck! At the current $50.80 price, my position here is up over 20%. Still holding for now, looking for at least $65.

[stenzrob]

SIGM reports, up after hours

Bought SIGM $60.

Finally ... the report. I have sat through some underwater time on this one for almost a month. It had gotten down to $50 briefly, over 15% down for my position. But, it showed support there, reversed, climbed back to almost breakeven today. Then, it screamed upwards after hours today to $66 after their report and guidance. Now I have to recalculate value and decide whether to continue to hold it.

[stenzrob]

Doing some selling today

Sold CRDN at $50.75 , SIGM at $67.50 , ININ at $27.20

CRDN 50.75/42.10 = +20.5%
SIGM 67.50/60.00 = +12.5%
ININ 27.20/27.00 = +00.74%

Current long positions:
AOB 11.55/12.65 = -8.7%

[stenzrob]

buy WATG again

Bought some WATG at $8.87.

If the numbers on Yahoo are right, then the PEG is less than 0.5 and the ROE is over 29%.

Major new contract announced recently, and the announcement included some rough guidance for ~40% revenue growth in 2008, while the PE is less than 20 (hence the PEG under 0.5).

Plus, the chart looks good. The ideal case would have this flat through tomorrow, so that it doesn't help spike in the POTW contest , then break out and run starting Monday.

[stenzrob]

Sold AVAV today for $24.85 (+3.28%)
Still like the company, but the trend just does not look right.

Put AVAV back in my portfolio again today at $23.40.
Bought on 11/1 for 24.06,
sold 11/14 for 24.85,
bought 11/28 for 23.40.

Seems like I do something with this one every two weeks, and so far, making a bit of spare change even while it is in a slight downtrend. If I had the patience, I wouldn't mind holding this one, but where's the fun in that?

[stenzrob]

Maybe I'm just seeing what I want to see.
AVAV reports next Tuesday after the close.

[stenzrob]

bought some SDTH for $8.22

[stenzrob]

Position update

Current positions:
WATG: 9.44/8.87 = +6.4% since 11/29/07
AVAV: 24.05/23.40 = +2.8% since 11/29/07
(both too thinly traded to use any stop)

SDTH: 8.16/8.22 = -0.7% since 11/30/07
AOB: 11.70/12.65 = -7.5% since 11/06/07
- 11/06 ?! I'm at risk of turning into a long term investor!

Price movement after some recent sales:
ININ: sold at 27.20 for +0.7% on 11/29, now at 26.12 (-4.0%)
SIGM: sold at 67.50 for +12.5% on 11/29, now at 65.07 (-3.6%)
CRDN: sold at 50.75 for +20.0% on 11/29, now at 49.44 (-2.6%)
VDSI: sold at 21.67 for +3.00% on 11/27, now at 22.44 (+3.6%)
LUNA: sold at 7.98 for +10.2% on 11/20, now at 9.13 (+14.4%)
- where's the darn LUNA pullback I wanted?
This stock may just take off and end up with me chasing after it.

[stenzrob]

just sold the WATG position for 9.70, +9.36% since last Thursday.

Taking another look at LUNA, which took a bit of a corrective dive today. Also looking again at NTWK, which I bought & sold as a momo play about a month ago, and seems to be making a new base.

For now though, only continuing to hold AVAV, AOB and SDTH.

[stenzrob]

bought some RGEN for $5.25