Decisions, decisions (SIRI)

[Websman]

Great article Webs....... looking for a re-entry point myself........

I'm thinking, forget the perfect entry point and just get back in. I've been waiting for two days with no success.

[tokyojoeskid]

Thats what I say WEBS, Im back in at 7.59, a lot higher than my first entry at 1.07 but it will work out in the long run.
TJk

[thebign1]

I'm thinking, forget the perfect entry point and just get back in. I've been waiting for two days with no success.

At this point I would wait until January.....IMHO the profit takers will sell off after the 1st of the year...thebign1

[Runner]

Has anyone noticed SIRI makes it big move of the day in Pre-market trading? Seems to pop prior to market open. I guess this works both ways up and down. Looks like about a .30-cent pop a day. What do you make of this action on SIRI? Last few days volume was lower as price was rising. I guess I’m cautiously optimistic on this one. I’d like to see it come down in price a little and turn sideways for a while.

[spikefader]

At this point I would wait until January.....IMHO the profit takers will sell off after the 1st of the year...thebign1

The big thing that suggests that profit taking/short is wrong right now is the fact that it's had a clear impulse up, which often leads to the 5 wave move.

[Websman]

The big thing that suggests that profit taking/short is wrong right now is the fact that it's had a clear impulse up, which often leads to the 5 wave move.

Good point Spike. Might I add that SIrius is getting a lot of attention before Christmas and I believe if one were to wait until January to get in, he would be missing the boat. I'm getting in for even more profit.

Trading is a neverending learning experience. I learned a valuable lesson when I abruptly jumped ship last week.

[New-born baby]

What's the lesson?

Trading is a neverending learning experience. I learned a valuable lesson when I abruptly jumped ship last week.[/QUOTE]

Webs,

Can you give us the lesson learned in one paragraph? I mean, if selling SIRI was wrong after a 25% drop,(or whatever the percentage was), where should one have placed the stop-loss? What selling rule, or holding rule, can you give me to learn from your mistake?

Yes, this is a pointed question, but it is also a sincere one. Teach me something! And the very best of investing to you!

[thebign1]

Good point Spike. Might I add that SIrius is getting a lot of attention before Christmas and I believe if one were to wait until January to get in, he would be missing the boat. I'm getting in for even more profit.

Trading is a neverending learning experience. I learned a valuable lesson when I abruptly jumped ship last week.

There’s little doubt that Sirius has farther to fall. Maybe not an absolute crash, but at least 20%.

The low dollar value of the stock, now at $8, conceals a valuation that would have even made the '99-era Internet companies blush. At the current price, Sirius commands a mind-blowing price-to-sales multiple of 188, which means you are paying $188 for every dollar of sales. That is much more than you'd normally pay for stocks of companies with a shot at curing cancer -- and triple the amazing 39 price/sales multiple of XM. Compare these to the most successful software stock of the past five years, Symantec (SYMC, news, msgs), with a sales multiple of 9.5. Apple gets a multiple of 3. It is unsustainable even at the top of the most optimistic analysts' expectations.

For the complete article:

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P101820.asp

Regards, Norm

[spikefader]

I'm getting in for even more profit.

Trading is a neverending learning experience. I learned a valuable lesson when I abruptly jumped ship last week.

Hope it IS profit for you, but profit OR loss on your next trade, whatever you do, make a plan and stick to it. Whether you profit or lose is not the important thing. It's sticking to the plan and electing to ignore emotion that matters. But you know all this anyway

Contemplating your entry, perhaps look for the completion of a C correction?? The big wave in the last month has a clear 5 wave move in it, which is often followed by an 'a' down, a 'b' up, and a 'c' down again, before commencing another 5 wave move up. So look for the 'c' entry!!! and not the 'b' entry, where it is now....

Good tradin' with it!

[Websman]

Trading is a neverending learning experience. I learned a valuable lesson when I abruptly jumped ship last week.

Webs,

Can you give us the lesson learned in one paragraph? I mean, if selling SIRI was wrong after a 25% drop,(or whatever the percentage was), where should one have placed the stop-loss? What selling rule, or holding rule, can you give me to learn from your mistake?

Yes, this is a pointed question, but it is also a sincere one. Teach me something! And the very best of investing to you![/QUOTE]


I would like to say that a stop would have helped, but in this case it wouldn't be true. The problem is that most of the price change occured after or before hours. I suppose the solution to this is to have the capability to trade after hours, which I do not. The main lesson for me is the fact that I had a plan to stick with SIRI for the long term, and I broke my rule. Even though SIRI did take a $2 drop, I was still way up, being I was in at a much lower buy point and had a lot of room to play with. I should have looked at the factors that were causing this sharp drop...that being the analysts downgrades and the Wall Street Journal article blasting SIRI. I hesitate to hint at conpsiracy theories, but this appeared to be a coordinated effort to drop the share price and it worked. The truth remanes that Sirius is turning out to be a hot stock for the Christmas season and many investors are buying it like there's no tomorrow.
1. Is this a bubble? Yes.
2.Is it way overvalued? yes
3.Does the price action and run up make sense? No It does not make sense. This is not a stock to try to rationalize and explain why it's not worth it. TZOO certainly isn't worth it's share price, yet the investors who traded it made a fortune.

What is driving the price is the high exposure and the enormous potential of this company. People laughed at me and told me I was crazy when I got in SIRI, but I ended up getting the last laugh. and...it's not over. I'll make plenty more on this stock before it's over. Watch and see.

webs...

[lak]

Yes a stop was useless on this one as by the time the market opened it had dropped like $1.25 already. That is a strange occurance with this stock, so much trading and movement prior to the open, but then a level off and nothing.......... clearly not a daytraders play. Actually it makes it very difficult to gauge anything as far as movement. I get the sense market makers are in there and playing in the morning, where I don't dare to go very often if ever, and then when the bell rings it sits tight at the 'pre' price.

Webs. Good luck on the jumping back in. I am thinking it needs more rest time. But if I see a solid move upward after the market opens....... I might step in. You are correct there is money to be made on this stock, short and long term I believe. Now just have to figure out when to get into the action.

SIRI makes little sense in a many ways....... but in others it is a clearly solid investment choice.

gl all

[Websman]

Yes a stop was useless on this one as by the time the market opened it had dropped like $1.25 already. That is a strange occurance with this stock, so much trading and movement prior to the open, but then a level off and nothing.......... clearly not a daytraders play. Actually it makes it very difficult to gauge anything as far as movement. I get the sense market makers are in there and playing in the morning, where I don't dare to go very often if ever, and then when the bell rings it sits tight at the 'pre' price.

Webs. Good luck on the jumping back in. I am thinking it needs more rest time. But if I see a solid move upward after the market opens....... I might step in. You are correct there is money to be made on this stock, short and long term I believe. Now just have to figure out when to get into the action.

SIRI makes little sense in a many ways....... but in others it is a clearly solid investment choice.

gl all

I layed out of work to watch SIRI today and possibly buy. Here goes the premarket runup again. I'll bet it does the same thing again...runup premarket and stay flat all day.

[lak]

Yep. Bet it does just that.

[lak]

Beginning to feel like I missed the boat again today...............

[Websman]

I might be crazy, but I'm back in with more shares than I had before. Forget what I said about wanting this dog to go down. This dog needs to run!

I still think the chart will be flatter than a pancake again today.

Webs...