Decisions, decisions (SIRI)

[Karel]

The trading in SIRI is completely gaga. One moment the stock is up here, half an hour later it is down 5% from that point, but buyers and sellers everywhere. When SIRI was low, I saw buys coming by at .30 higher than the ask; probably people who put in limit buys on a 20 minute delayed quote ...

[Websman]

It's crazy Karel. my ticker is going up and down like a yoyo.

[Websman]

I just saw a buy for $9.24, but it's trading at $9.00..????

[mrmarket]

Everyone in town is talking about SIRI stock. You know this is going the way of Krispy Kreme or Snapple.....but when???

[Websman]

Everyone in town is talking about SIRI stock. You know this is going the way of Krispy Kreme or Snapple.....but when???

I would agree that SIRI will take a sharp drop in the near term, but long term I don't believe SIRI will be like Krispy Kreme or Snapple. Satellite radio will be in millions of cars in the U.S. and Canada. It will do to FM what FM did to AM radio. I'd be willing to bet a six pack of beer on it.

[titanomega1]

I was at the pool in San Jose Costa Rico trying to decide if I should gamble, eat, or make the call. Of course if you go to the Del Rio you can do all three without getting out of your seat. Now the guy who organized this bacchanalia was spouting about SIRI and how he was accumulating all he could. So I picked up a few shares the day before Stern made the call. You You YOUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU!!!

[Websman]

I was at the pool in San Jose Costa Rico trying to decide if I should gamble, eat, or make the call. Of course if you go to the Del Rio you can do all three without getting out of your seat. Now the guy who organized this bacchanalia was spouting about SIRI and how he was accumulating all he could. So I picked up a few shares the day before Stern made the call. You You YOUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU!!!

YEEAAAAAAAAAAA BABBBBBBBBYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!

WE'RE MAKING $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BRING ME SOME MEAT AND CHEESE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! NOW!!!!!!!!!

[thebign1]

Re: My prediction

Tuesday it will hit $8.80....... and then it will close at $8.64

Whoops! I was a little bit low.....lol

[thebign1]

I was at the pool in San Jose Costa Rico trying to decide if I should gamble, eat, or make the call. Of course if you go to the Del Rio you can do all three without getting out of your seat. Now the guy who organized this bacchanalia was spouting about SIRI and how he was accumulating all he could. So I picked up a few shares the day before Stern made the call. You You YOUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU!!!

Same here......I got in @ $3.32 the day before the Stern announcement.

[Websman]

Whoops! I was a little bit low.....lol

What??? Did you only get 2 wheelbarrows to put your money in??? You should have got a least 4!

[billyjoe]

Can all you SIRI guys and gals spare me some $ so I can find a penny stock to make me rich? I promise I'll pay you back , just need a grubstake.
billyjoe

[lak]

Watching the trades today of SIRI was crazy......... I considered dropping my shares off when it hit the 9.30 area........ but held, and I hope it was the right decision. When I see those huge differences in bids and asks, that is a HUGE warning sign to me........ the rug might come out sooner than later.......
However, my gut still tells me until the end of the year this thing rolls........ I had a target of 9 for XMas, now I think 10 is more possible than ever before!

[Jaws57]

Just thinking out loud

I am still trying to come up with a profit potential but let me throw this out;

There is a market potential of 350,000,000 subs when you add all the cars, trucks, RVs, boats, households, stores, business etc. Lets say SIRI pulls 20% of that, it would mean
70,000,000 paying subscribers making over 10B in sales. If they can net 10% or 1B in net profit times the industry PE of 36, a market cap of 36B would be reasonable. That breaks down to 28.57 per share. Not a whole lot considering the risks, but if the profit margin is higher, PE higher, market penetration higher???????????? Who knows.

A lot of IF's here but this what makes speculative investing fun!!!

GO SIRI!!!!!!!!!

Jaws57

[Karel]

OK Jaws, I'll throw in my calculation.

Currently, SIRI operates at a loss of .53/share. You said earlier that 3M+ subscribers would mean breakeven. I will assume 4M. Now suppose, conservatively, that SIRI needs all 4M to make good that .53 loss (in practice they will need less). So each 4M customers add .50 to earnings/share. Now it will probably take another year or three to get the first 4M (and break even).

Another three, four years bring the next 4M with a bit of luck, so then SIRI has positive earnings of .50, and the stock might be valued at $18, based on that industry P/E of 36. The current price requires only half as much earnings, and .25/share requires about 6M subscribers, say 5 years out from now. If SIRI adds less than 1M subscribers a year to its base, the valuations fade away farther in the future. I wouldn't know if 1M/year is realistic; it seems a tall order to me.

On these calculations people are hoping to double the current price in 7 years or so; a return of 10% annualized. (Assuming that valuations by then are more normal; and that P/E of 36 still supposes a lot of growth.)

Now to wait for the bumps in the road!

Regards,

Karel

[lak]

and there is the drop