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CMN 50% condition met today: Looking to open long tomorrow.
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MM Stats and CME
For those of you who like statistics,
Since 2001, the average MM closed out winning stock dropped 8% within the first 11 days after purchase
67% of the winners reached their lowest price within the first 26 days
Over 90% of the winners reached their lowest price within the first 41 days
It has been 29 days since MM bought CME at 224.74. Currently trading at 204.35,
That is a decline of just over 9 percent.
Tim
Tim - Retired Problem SolverComment
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Nice stats. Based on these, one would be unwise not to look for a discount on Mr.Market's entry price. Buying weakness gives you an edge. You just need patience!Originally posted by mimo_100For those of you who like statistics,
Since 2001, the average MM closed out winning stock dropped 8% within the first 11 days after purchase
67% of the winners reached their lowest price within the first 26 days
Over 90% of the winners reached their lowest price within the first 41 days
It has been 29 days since MM bought CME at 224.74. Currently trading at 204.35,
That is a decline of just over 9 percent.
Tim Comment
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How does your bear bias affect your trades here?Comment
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For the 50% trades I’m not going to let my general market bias affect them. They don’t have stops, as originally designed, and I’ll let them ‘pan’ out over time. BUT, general market weakness may cause lower 50% retrace signals to occur for all of these trades. In spirit of cautiousness, I WILL retarget them where necessary – such as what NGPS did today. It broke the 100% retrace from my entry. So I’ll retarget that one based on the latest 50% signal. The new target lowers the profit, but it’s a logical thing to do imho.Originally posted by yaoyao
And as far as other trades based on my own channel system with tight stops (eg. ACRG channel turn up entry) I will be more conservative I think. I will not be chasing channel turn ups, and I’ll take intraday entries based on bull flag/wedge breakouts, but rather stick to lower channel entries and double bottom/inverted SHS intraday entries. For shorts, I may increase my channel turn down and intraday bearish flag/wedge break entries more aggressively than if I had a bullish market bias. Seems the logical thing to do.Comment
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where would you put your stop
where would you put your stop at 19.95? Looks to me if this thing keeps falling and it cruises by 20 its going to 12.Comment
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I take it you're speaking of NGPS. As per the system, I won't use stops for these system trades.Originally posted by tokyojoeskid
If you're asking me a logical place to put a stop if I used one, then I'd be putting it at 21.39, below today's low. Today's channel long and intraday inverted SHS sets up nicely for long opportunity. As far as my usual channel system, if it were to fail to hold 21.40 then I'd be stopped out at 21.39 and I'd not take it long again.Attached FilesComment
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ngps
Hi Spike,Originally posted by spikefader
Are you saying that if NGPS fails at 21.40 we should dump it and forget it? I've got a big loss to recoup. I bought in at 31.50. OUCH!
margie"Whatever you can do or dream you can , begin it. Boldness has genius,power and magic in it." GoetheComment
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Noshady, you misunderstood what I said. Apologies for any ambiguity on my part.Originally posted by noshadyldy
Let me make it clear. I am long NGPS from 33.49 and I am NOT using a stop for this position.
As said earlier in the thread, I will only close these 50% retrace trades at a target calculated by the last 50% retrace signal + 15%.
When I said, “…I’d be putting it at 21.39…” I was merely giving Tokyo the logical stop location I’d put a stop IF I weren’t trading this retrace system on Mr. Market’s Top 5 and IF I were using stops. But I’m NOT using stops, and won’t start now, since that was not my original plan. In my other thread I always use stops and am religious about them. And it’s just for this reason: trading without stops is dangerous and you open the door to significant downside. If you are trading without stops, then you must understand this.
Reading your words, “I've got a big loss to recoup. I bought in at 31.50. OUCH!” weighs heavily, and I truly hope that you are not unwisely positioned (size-wise) and not putting your eggs in one or a few baskets based on buy or sell recommendations posted on a forum such as this one. I trust you are not, and that your current loss is within tolerance of your overall trading plan. But if you ARE overcommitted or are relying on forum recommendations without a) doing your own due diligence and b) being prepared for the consequences, then please reconsider your trading strategy and reconsider the risk to which you are exposing your capital.
This applies to anyone reading this thread or any post made here at Mr. Market forums. If you cannot do a) or b) and sensibly manage your capital then don’t trade until you can.
Personally, I am diversified, I am not “putting my eggs in one NGPS basket”, the position size I have is sensible and well within limits, and what has happened to the position is not out of the scope of my original plan. I was fully prepared for any or all of these posted 50% retrace entries to drop in price and meander around, and perhaps even do as poorly as NGPS has done now. The overriding motive is to see the average of these entries be profitable. This 50% retrace system for Mr. Market picks has not been tested by anyone before, is in its infancy, and may be shown to be completely unprofitable in current market conditions. Anyone reading this thread from start to finish (and the thread titled “stops are for wimps” to which I refer to in this thread) should understand this, but if it hasn’t been clearly highlighted, then consider this post as an appropriate warning.
God bless you, Noshady and all readers, and may all your trades make you smile, win, lose or draw
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NGPS & its none of my business
NOshadylady,
If NGPS hits $6, will you still hold? By that time there would be no reason to sell. One might as well hold.
One of the men in my church has a stock once worth $80 share, now selling for $2.90. He has held hoping she'd come back. It happens to the best of stocks. AT&T ("the stock for widows and orphans") was $104 in 1998. Its an $18 stock now, and has been as low as $14. Oh, since 1998 it also had a 1:10 reverse split to boot, in effect making it a $1.80 stock. That's more pain than I want to handle.
That's why Spike says we ought to use stops, wimps or not. I'd rather lose 5% than 99% (like AT&T has done).
How low will NGPS go? Well if someone on this board is correct in saying that it effectively has 3 million new shares to dilute the profit with, you might take earnings and divide it by (number of shares +3 million) to calculate the p/e. Then figure that the p/e is going to be lower than the industry average, and that might give you a rough idea about where it will land. Then you can calculate if you can take that much/little pain.
It is not necessary to earn your money back by NGPS. All that counts is that you get your money back somehow.
Question: if you sold now and bought a Can paying 15%, how long before you are even again? If less than two years, I'd advise you to consider doing so.
It isn't any business of mine. Do as you see best. Just a suggestion about how you might work out of a tight place.Comment
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