Swing trading Mr.Market's latest Top Five Picks

[spikefader]

ARLP and CME are what's killing me though, both down about 20% from where I bought.

I trust you're diversified and not overexposed to those.

[casinoboy3]

I trust you're diversified and not overexposed to those.

Well currently I've only got CMTL, ARLP, and CME, each about 1/5 of my IRA. The rest has been sitting in cash. I started contributing to a Roth IRA about a year and a half ago (I'm 19), so I don't have alot of money in my account to diversify sufficiently. I'm debating whether or not I should even contribute more this year because my account value is currently lower then the total amount I've contributed after what will be going on two years. Frequent trading would also hurt me since I'm not buying or selling in large amounts. Either way, I have plenty of time to wait for these stocks to rebound (hopefully). Did get 15% from CMN though before that fell too.

Thanks.

[Iggy]

Always contribute to your Roth if you can afford it - my suggestion would be to get into a mutual fund where you can put in $100.00 here and there when you have it, and save up until you CAN be diversified and not paying a large percentage of your money on buy / sell fees. Good job getting in so young - I'm 23 myself and have been contributing for three years now.

[dmk112]

Spike,

When doing FIBs shouldn't u wait until the previous days ghihgs are taken out to confirm the FIB retracement bounce?

[spikefader]

FORD 15% target reached today

Here was the entry http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...&postcount=253
and today's action has been huge


SYSTEM TOTALS:
Total system profit 139% in 15 trades.
Average is 9.27% per trade.

OPEN POSITIONS:
ARLP - retarget to 77.75 or 5.97% profit.
NGPS - retarget to 29.97 or -10.5% loss
FRD - retaget to 10.79 or -13.68% loss
IIG - retarget to 15.64 or -13.78% loss
CWTR - retarget to 20.05 or 1.53% profit
HBP - target 12.00 or 15%

(if all these open positions meet their targets, the system average profit per trade will be +5.88%)

[spikefader]

Spike,

When doing FIBs shouldn't u wait until the previous days ghihgs are taken out to confirm the FIB retracement bounce?

Not a rule I've built into the system, but if you like, have a look and see if it would have made a difference.

[dmk112]

Yea not in that case, but it usually does I believe.

[spikefader]

SEB system long today @ 890, based on a solid and signficant 50% retrace.
Target is 1030.

ARLP - retarget to 77.75 or 5.97% profit.
NGPS - retarget to 29.97 or -10.5% loss
FRD - retaget to 10.79 or -13.68% loss
IIG - retarget to 15.64 or -13.78% loss
CWTR - retarget to 20.05 or 1.53% profit
HBP - target 12.00 or 15%
SEB - long 890 target 1030.

[Websman]

Spike, if I've never told you before...You Rock!!!

Thanks once again for all the priceless info!

[B.J]

Ditto, Webs. Thanks, Spike. In addition, SEB touched 200 DMA and channel (dating back to 5/10/04) touch. Not certain what it all means, but it may be as good a place as any to buy.

Also an island worth of volume action between 834 and 957.

[spikefader]

SEB system long today @ 890, based on a solid and signficant 50% retrace.
Target is 1030.

System target hit today for SEB for 15.7% profit. That was quick!
SYSTEM TOTAL:
Total system profit 154.7% in 16 trades.
Average since inception is 9.67% per trade while S&P -3.3% over the same time frame.

OPEN POSITIONS
ARLP - retarget to 77.75 or 5.97% profit.
NGPS - retarget to 29.97 or -10.5% loss
FRD - retaget to 10.79 or -13.68% loss
IIG - retarget to 15.64 or -13.78% loss
CWTR - retarget to 20.05 or 1.53% profit
HBP - target 12.00 or 15%

[noshadyldy]

anyone out there shorting NGPS??

[spikefader]

anyone out there shorting NGPS??

how NGPS made it into the Top 5 I'll never know....
Or FRD and IIG for that matter......
3 pitiful candidates that haven't helped the system. But even despite their pitiful retargets, and assuming they hit them, it's not going to threaten the system's profitability. It'll still be outperforming the S&P by a very healthy margin.

[spikefader]

Just doing the numbers, if all open positions hit their targets, the system average will be +6.3% per trade.

[spikefader]

OK, time for some number crunching for the system. Next post will be looking at win/loss rates and win probability and I'll throw some equity curve calculations in the thread so we can see whether this MM Top 5 50% retrace system is worth continuing.

Next post will highlight that, as far as equity curves go, the system appears very robust and arguably quite profitable for long-term trading.

More to follow......