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CWTR gives 50% retrace entry today at 29.62. Target is 34.06.
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Just realized CWTR isn't on the latest Top 5 list, but the veteran's day top 5 list here http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/...65&postcount=1
I still really like the chart though, and this 50% retrace seems a good one. I'll keep it in if there are no objections
OPEN TRADES UPDATE:
Current open trades:
NGPS at 33.49 retarget 33.85
FRD long 12.50, targeting 12.13
IIG Long 18.14, retarget 16.10 (the system's worst performer to date)
ARLP long 73.37. Target is 84.38
CWTR long 29.62. Target is 34.06.Comment
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Cwtr
Spike,
Is CWTR worth a long right now?
FRD: this horrible stock just keeps diving! I haven't studied it out, but it is very sick, and I wonder if it isn't like BillyJoe was speaking about IIG and Enron. It seems to drop .50-.75 per day. If it weren't for IIG and FRD, this system that you've devised would be just about perfect! I even think NGPS is going to turn around for you.Comment
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I reckon it is. The chart is very similar to that of ARLP's. Statistically, the system's great % win numbers put the odds in favor of a successful trade for a stock with a chart similar to any of the Top 5s.Originally posted by New-born baby
That's actually an interesting concept right there: i.e. similar charts. I think if we can find other charts out there that are strikingly similar to any of the current Top 5, it might be worth watching them to see their performance relative to the system. A lot of work though to flip through charts in the hunt.
But back to your point about the poor performers, I have been giving some thought to a stop tucked under the full 100% retrace zone of the signal given. So that would be entering the long at the 50, and stopping at at say 101% full retrace. If I did that with IIG, I'd be stopped out already for a 40% loss on that trade, which brings the system numbers down to average trade win of 4.9% each position, effectively cutting the percentages in half. Still positive numbers, and it gives you an escape for any stock that will go to zero and wipe out the full position or spend an eternity in the abyss ahold of trading capital that could otherwise be used elsewhere. But I think I may be tempted to risk the 60% of the position that's left in IIG to see a bounce to the retarget for a loss of 11%, saving 29% loss. So the question is is it worth risking 60% to save 29% on a stock that's tanking. It seems unlikely that I would actually, and probably would just take the hit.
Anyone got input on that generally? Or on the 101% auto hard stop?Comment
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Frd
Oh my lord, FRD is diving .......
What the heck is wrong with this stock?
I'm so sure that the earnings of this stock will be so good when they come out in a couple of months but can some insiders selling some stock cause this stock to tumble like this?
FRD, I hate you.Comment
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Greetings,
I was considering a modification to the system,using the 50% as an initial signal,and put the stop at 68%,to avoid possible dead ends.
In theory a healthy stock should bounce from 50%?If it continues to fall it may be not so healthy?I realise some may retrace to 68%,and then bounce,but Im not sure weve seen one yet in the system?
just an idea.
cordially TomComment
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I have a few thoughts on this. I like the idea of a stop "somewhere" and 68% seems reasonable. Reentry can always happen later to take back the money. Of course this can always be an individual thing too. 101% seems mighty "hive inducing" to me. We are also free to make up our own retracement number, for example a split between the two - 80%.
Also, and I apologize if this has been addressed, but are we waiting for a "buy" signal with these 50% pullbacks or just that they are at 50%. NGPS proved to be a falling knife. If that's what's happening, then how about a "buy" signal after 50% pullback? (channel long, break in downtrend, goodlooking oscillators or whatever.)
Just my 2Cents worth."Whatever you can do or dream you can , begin it. Boldness has genius,power and magic in it." GoetheComment
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OK, interesting suggestions, but let's not forget that the system is working fantastically, so let's not get too carried away with tweaking it.
I'll go back and double check price movement after the entries, but my initial reaction to the 68% stop is I don't like it. I think it's going to lead to a proportion of stop outs that will turn the system into an unprofitable one. This is ground we've covered before in another thread.
Remember, with the current average of 8% win per trade, the system can be profitable even in the unlikely event that 1 out of 13 stocks trades gets wiped out. And really, what are the chances that 7% of total system trades are going to zero? We are talking stocks that fit Mr. Market's model and are showing earnings, right? So it's very rare that we will see big unanticipated fundamental changes, but at the same time, we're expecting it's possible, like BEL for example. So diversification is key. If you're going to trade this system, it's not for a trader committing a huge amount of capital to a random one of the many signals; it is for a trader prepared to trade every signal, to commit a chunk of capital to, and use only 10%-20% of that total system capital with each signal. This way you have the protective edge of diversification.
The way the system stands now, even in the cruddy event that IIG or FRD were to goes to zero, the system will only then be back to a break even system. If they end up going to their current targets, that will be -14% for those two trades, with a system total of +95% after 15 trades, and an average of 6.3%, which is still very nice. In fact, it's awesome. Since this system started in late Nov 04 the S&P500 is up only 2.9%. Currently the system averages out to +8.4%, virtually threefold better than market performance! This is why I don't want to throw in tight stops!
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FRD - This is a good stock I don't know what is going on.... although the whole steel sector is getting hit...inluding SIM....eeeeeeyyyyyComment
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The 50% IS the entry point. You'll notice that I held off several entries and got an intraday discount, but the target is always calculated as 15% on top of the 50% number. This is how some of the positions generated slightly over 15% - due to the lower entries taken.Originally posted by noshadyldy
Yes, NGPS was a falling knife. And it sucks. But, it's OK. I can accept it. The system is robust enough to live through them - at least do date it is. Time will tell if it continues to perform. And time will tell how this system does in a bear market.
But for now, I'm prepared to say ces la vis about NGPS.
Yep, it's frustrating to watch it. Yep, wouldn't it be great if there's a system that removes those knives. Yep, I'm dreaming to think it's possible. Fact is, knives and shocks, and speed bumps, and disappointments will happen in this life. That is life. Reminds me of the Serenity Prayer:
"God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change;
the courage to change the things I can;
and wisdom to know the difference."
The knives we can't change,
the courage is changing how I feel about the knives,
and the wisdom is knowing that diversifying Mr. Market's model effectively deals with the knives to still remain profitable.
I'm ranting now, so I'll zip it.
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Re Frd
I traded FRD quite a bit and am now all out. Their last statement ending 12/31 had a few worrisome statements :
1.Coil product segment sales increased approximately $8,859,000 during the 2004 quarter. This increase was related primarily to an increase in the average per ton selling price of approximately 136%. Tons shipped declined from approximately 38,000 tons in the 2003 quarter to 27,000 tons in the 2004 quarter
2.Tubular product segment sales increased approximately $9,597,000 during the 2004 quarter. This increase primarily resulted from an approximate 72% increase in the average per ton selling price. Tons shipped remained relatively constant during both quarters at approximately 35,000 tons
heres the link
My concern was there growth is all pricing not production growth.
They also discuss that some of their suppliers are troublesome.
the next statement release will set the course.Comment
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Greetings Spike,
I look forward to your post daily.
As the Scripture says "A double minded man is unstable in all ways".
I would appreciate your comment on a few topics.
On turtletraders site they do not reccomend buying dips,such as fib retraces,as they feel a drop of 50% warrants possible change in trend.Since I am in Limbo between brokers,Ive been reading alot on TTs site.The more I read,the less I feel I can make a decent return in the market.After reading the Zerosum article,it appears the market will eventually take away profits if trading is continued,unless you have a distiguisable edge from the masses.
In your opinion,someone like myself,with limited chart abilities,quick trigger buys and sells ,with poor timing,and a fear of losing capital,am I in the wrong gameIYO?
If you were to pick an investment that required little maintenance,without the emotional highs and lows that are involved in trading stocks,what would be your preference?
I find myself restless from the fear of taking a position,to the fear of that position falling,thinking its not alotof fun watching the market constantly,with absolutely zero control over price action.
In short ,what are thet odds of someone beating the market?
cordially TomComment
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Greetings Again,
Warren Buffetts comment that "A chart is the most important thing to have,if you run out of toilet paper."kind of struck me off guard.
I realise Buffett is not really a buy and hold investor that everyone thinks he is,what is your opinion ,if any of his investing strategy?obviously its worked so far.
As far as my future trading strategy,I am thinking of moving from CANROYS to US based trusts,
Money seems to be flowing there,since Canada is taking 15% of dist.'
PBT ,BPT,ang HGT all on my screen if I decide to trade.
cordially TomComment
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Spike,
Just saw the chart on CWTR, and it retraced to 61.8% it looks like. Was that the proper entry point?Comment
Hany.
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