Swing trading Mr.Market's latest Top Five Picks

[noshadyldy]

Shady,

I am following ngps, too. I don't own any--yet. But I'll tell you what I am looking for. I am looking for the morning star. That's a good sign of a reversal pattern. If you are into candlestick charts, the doji star formation will indicate a strong reversal. And then I'll jump in.

Best investing to you in 2005.

Newborn baby, you're a doll! Maybe its that gummy jawline, or that Poindexter look you so easily achieve with your glasses, but you do it for me! (IIC, even you can't compete here!) By the way, I had a little monkey when I was a young girl. I really loved her.
Anyways, I don't know the morning star. Is it part of the candlestick method you mention? Please, steer me to where I can learn this morning star.
Also, yes, please cough up those other Canadian stocks with those great returns. I was unaware that you could buy on the Canadian side by calling in. I also am with Scottrade. Thanks so much, you handsome devil.
M

[noshadyldy]

I doubt anyone can say where NGPS is going. This market has been plain ugly. Maybe institutions will jump in off the 50dma? But who knows, we need a little help next week maybe we will see the shorts begin to cover and give us a little rally?

good point on the shorts. Lets hope your right.

[New-born baby]

morning star

NOShadylady,

Sorry, but I'm happily married. (Smile) And my wife, contrary to my appearance, is a real doll baby.

Let's talk first about the doji star, also called the morning star. If you go to stockcharts.com, they can make candlestick charts for you. Yahoo can, too. In any case, a morning star formation is a formation that signals a strong reversal. Stockcharts.com will even scan the market for doji stars. Most likely, [okay, hopefully] ngps will make one of these Monday or Tuesday next week.

The morning star forms after an obvious downtrend (e.g. ngps has shown us an obvious downtrend these last couple of days) and has three parts.
ONE: a long decline in one day (e.g. today's drop of $1.91 is a perfect example).

TWO: Perhaps Monday, ngps will drop some more and form the "star" part of the formation. What would happen is this: ngps will gap down, but the trading range will remain small for the day. This indicates indecision between the bears and the bulls.

THREE: If that happens, then on the next day we ought to have a gap up as the bulls jump in and take over the stock. That's when I want to jump in.

It may take a week or more for the stock to regain what has been lost. It probably won't happen the first day, but who knows?

What's happening is that the overall market is being sold down, esp. the NAZ. But I do not expect that to last too much longer. On the other hand, what do I know?

[New-born baby]

Cans & Dolls

NOshadylady,

Okay, let's talk Canadian Royalty Trusts. I love them and have profitted nicely by them. I hope to offer some real help to you.

First, you'll need to call your local Scottrade office and request your broker to buy "units" for you on the Toronto Stock Exchange. There are about 200 royalty trusts, but I am interested only in the 12 cream of the cream trusts out there.

Here are what I consider to be the best of the best.
1. AE.UN Acclaim Energy pays 14%, as safe as a money market fund.
2. PMT.UN Paramont Energy Trust pays 15% and a good company.
3. AY.UN APF ENergy pays 16.4% and solid
4. BTE.UN Baytex Energy 14.7% For every dollar of Unit price, has $2 of oil in reserves.
5. NVG.UN Navigo--pays 18% and more risky. The risk is that the dividend will drop to 15% or some such figure. A good play if you wish to see appreciation in the stock price.
6. VKR.UN Viking==pays 15% and a good company.
7. NAE.UN--NAL Energy pays about 15% and excellent.

I am too lazy to mention the others. Besides, invest in these and enjoy.

I do or have owned all of these companies. They pay a monthly dividend in Canadian dollars. It is nice to get a check every month. These are the privatized Social Security system stocks of Canada. The companies have tax exemption as long as they pay out more than 50% of profits to the unitholders. If they drop below that figure, they are taxed heavily, so they must pay out the cash. When you receive your dividend check, the gov't will withhold 15% for capital gains tax, which you will receive back (up to $3k) under FOREIGN TAX CREDIT.

These investments are nice in nasty markets, like the USA market was March--Election time. Over the last five years, no investment has exceeded the Cans for profit, averaging about 27% per year (dividends and capital gains).

Now, let me tell you when I think you should buy. Buy two days AFTER the ex-date for the dividend. Go to TSX.com and punch in these symbols, and then on the right hand side you'll be able to find buttons to click on for charts, volume, news. News will tell you when the ex-date is. Buy on the 2nd day after the ex-date, about 10 a.m. EST will probably offer you the best price.

[noshadyldy]

Gosh NewBB, I never knew such wonders existed! I'm serious! I'm going to print your info out and put it on my list of things to tackle and learn.
As for the wife, well, if she ever stops keeping a tidy cage, or losses her touch for bugs sauteed lightly with bananas... you just let me know. (smile)

I caught the correction of my name.

[New-born baby]

Cans & Dolls: take two

NOshadylady,

If you want the ultimate in safety, buy AE.UN and enjoy 14% divys. (pays 50% of its income to unitholders). If gas price drops severely, can still maintain the .1625 per month per unit divy. If I were buying and didn't want to worry in the least about it, this is it. The Ultimate in Cream.

AY.UN will serve you well, but payout ratio is about 85%. They drilled 120 oil wells in 3q 2004 and hit oil 120 times. Excellent company. Pays .16 per month. And moving forward. I made a lot of money here. I'd buy this in an instant.

VKR.UN is cheap to buy, about $5 US, and is on the move forward with excellent management. Pays .08 per month. Buy this if you want to sell in three years for $10 US.

PMT.UN--made me a lot of money, and pays .20 per month. Divy may go to .22 per month in February. If so, unit price will go to $18CD, or whatever works out to 15% dividend.

I hope my spelling did not insult you. My wife reads this forum, too, and, well, let's just say she packs a pair of 45s-- to church no less.

Best investing to you. You should do well here.

NGPS--the statistics say that buying into weakness is much more profitable than buying into strength. NGPS has shown us alot of weakness. Sooner or later, it will bounce.

[noshadyldy]

"I hope my spelling did not insult you. My wife reads this forum, too, and, well, let's just say she packs a pair of 45s-- to church no less."

Good Heavens, No! I just like to tease people. Thank you so much for all the information too. You're a gem. Smart woman, your wife!

[New-born baby]

Cans

NOshadylady,

You'll do very well with the Cans. Now, one last piece of info. IF you go with Interactive Brokers, you can buy these directly off your computer like you would any Dow stock. In other words, Interactive has a direct link to the Toronto exchange, and that has real advantages. If you have that possibility, then you should do it.

Consider this: if you buy a Can and the share price should drop, just hold it and let it pay you until you are even. Take PMT for instance. Pays .20 per month. If the price dropped a dollar, in five months you are even again. It is like trading with a parachute.

My wife had a good laugh off of the sauteed bananas. Now if you can tell me how to import an avatar, I'd change faces--for sure.

[spikefader]

what do you think worst case scenario is regarding how low it can go?

Hi noshadyldy. Well, technically I would expect support at the arrows in the below chart. The volume is hinting that it's nearly over anyway.... you know capitulation

Let's face it, that bullish run in the last 4 months is very impressive and one might now think a correction was 'due'. The only thing one can do is have the plan and stick to it. The plan is 50% entries from significant lows, and be patient if it drops below it....give it time. The thing now in our favor is the volume and the speed of drop. Capitulation is an amazing thing. Just when a buyer/holder's fear levels reach extreme points, it's usually the time they sell only to see the thing bounce. Had I bought at the recent 50 high, my fear levels now would be extreme So this is good.

But having said that, I don't have a crystal ball, and I must always warn that if there is bad enough news for a stock, it can shake the mightiest looking chart and send it plummeting. It is because of just this type of drop that I love stops for my usual 'perfect entry' type system. This 50% retrace system obviously is based on different stuff. It might take a while to hit the target after some meandering around, some drop, some gain, and lots of emotional turmoil. All I recommend is if you trade these 50% retraces, prepare yourself for this type of journey and size accordingly.

[spikefader]

...Now if you can tell me how to import an avatar, I'd change faces--for sure.

Here's how you do yer avatar:
Pick a photo you like, save it to desktop, use Irfanview or similar program to resize it to 100x100 pixels or 4.9kb (whichever is smaller).
Then go to Mr.Market webite,
click "User CP" near the top of the page
edit avatar
browse
and choose your resized image on your desktop.
then save changes and yer done!

[Gatorman]

Read your advice to New-Born on Avatars and am trying it myself. Hope if works.
P.S. I enjoy your charts and analysis. Keep up the good work!

[New-born baby]

Avatar

Thank you Spike! Look for the "new" (pardon the pun) me soon. . . .

[noshadyldy]

THANKS to Newbornbaby and SPIKE

Thank you so much Fellas. I've printed off your information and it's going to be very valuable to me. Spike, my knuckles went white this morning. Such whipsaw action on NGPS, but I will learn to relax eventually. When I look back at so many trades that I bailed out of due to panic and now look at them, I want to VOMIT! Wonderful gains that I would have had if only I would have stayed the course.
And you NewBorn Baby, thank you so much for that incredible info, all of it, on those canadian deals. I will be looking for your thread and more from you in the future.
I was pulled into the hospital for the last several days due to a shortage and have been run ragged. I'm just now catching up on correspondance, hence the delay.
Thanks again,
Margie

[spikefader]

Thank you so much Fellas. I've printed off your information and it's going to be very valuable to me. Spike, my knuckles went white this morning. Such whipsaw action on NGPS, but I will learn to relax eventually. When I look back at so many trades that I bailed out of due to panic and now look at them, I want to VOMIT! Wonderful gains that I would have had if only I would have stayed the course.
And you NewBorn Baby, thank you so much for that incredible info, all of it, on those canadian deals. I will be looking for your thread and more from you in the future.
I was pulled into the hospital for the last several days due to a shortage and have been run ragged. I'm just now catching up on correspondance, hence the delay.
Thanks again,
Margie

You're welcome. White knuckles huh? Emotions sure are tough to ignore, certainly. But just make sure you're not overcommitted. If you are, the emotions may be just too high to beat. What you want to do is trade a size and amount of capital in any one trade that leaves you carefree....the commitment just isn't big enough for you to worry about. That way, it is EASY to fight emotion and follow logic, since emotion is much much smaller. You need the ability to follow the logic rather than then emotion. This is the only way a new trader will be able to succeed in my humble opinion. White knuckles is really telling you that it's currently very difficult for you to be calm and relaxed about the currently losing trade. Do you have an exit rule or plan in place? What was the rule before you opened the trade? If you didn't have one that you felt comfortable with then you should have delayed opening the trade. You see, whether you use no stop loss at all or a percentage stop or price support stop, it doesn't matter....just as long as at the time you open the trade you are absolutely comfortable with the risk you are about to open to your capital. If you're not comfortable with it, don't trade it. When you are comfortable with your risk and have a plan, then trade it and smile at the outcome win or lose. It's ok to fail, as long as it's failing within your predefined limits. Keep it within your limits and you are succeeding. Remember, it's the trader who manages her/his capital the best that succeeds. This includes managing the downside trades. If you do this by diversifying and not using stops, or by using tight stops like I usually prefer, the management is what is keeping you in control. If you leave the downside management to emotion, or leave it recklessless to the market to decide, then you're out of control, and that's what makes you want to vomit about those other trades, that you lost control of them, let emotion decide and in hindsight wanting to kick yourself. Anyway, I hope some of that is helpful. Trading is SO HARD and I will be the first person to admit that I have made many mistakes based on emotion. It is completely normal, and any trader who says that's never happened to them is either lying or is genetically devoid of emotion

[noshadyldy]

ngps

I know how to make it go up. I'll short it.