Swing trading Mr.Market's latest Top Five Picks

[spikefader]

I know how to make it go up. I'll short it.

Yes, that should do it. Open a second account and short 1 share
Well, it's currently at the 61.8 fib retrace zone since the move from the October lows. It's also at intraday S2 at 25.58. Anyone out there that isn't long this thing, now is an absolutely fantastic place to be buying it at least from a technical perspective. I don't know the fundies, and I just checked and there's no news for it. Anyone open to dollar cost averaging, this would be a nice place to do it.

[noshadyldy]

Yes, that should do it. Open a second account and short 1 share
Well, it's currently at the 61.8 fib retrace zone since the move from the October lows. It's also at intraday S2 at 25.58. Anyone out there that isn't long this thing, now is an absolutely fantastic place to be buying it at least from a technical perspective. I don't know the fundies, and I just checked and there's no news for it. Anyone open to dollar cost averaging, this would be a nice place to do it.

Thanks again. What i've decided to do is take your advice from the prior post and resize my position. I cut it in half and put in a new buy order at 21. No available funds to average down at this time.
I'm also going to be away for almost a week as of wednesday and will sleep better.

[Thomrich]

Greetings Spike,
I jumped on the bus with NGPS today at 25.85,intraday it looked to bottom out around mid morning,and tried to catch at 25,it shot so fast to 26 I thought it was off to the races,instead of leaving my buy at 25 and being patient,I raised to 25.85 and left for lunch,not really liking my chances of gettng filled.Well the rest is history,as it nosedived below 25.

I believe I know the reason for the sell-off,as of 12-30-04 CMC electronic,a holding company for NGPS had a sale of 3million shares,effectively doubling the float,which correspondingly cut 50% from the pps.

I figure Ill look for an easy exit asap,usually is the strongest in the morning.Would this affect your trading strategy at all?I couldnt understand the sharp selling pressure until I dug that up tonight.

cordially Tom

[New-born baby]

Ngps

Thomrich,

I have been watching NGPS very closely, too. My thinking (I am not capable of much thinking) is that TODAY (1-11-05) NGPS might have finally hit bottom. Why? If you read my posts to NOshadylady, I said I'd be looking for a doji star. It is only 10 a.m. EST, but it APPEARS that today is the day that star might appear. If so, tomorrow will start an upswing for NGPS.

What I am looking for a doji star to form, is a day of big swings up and down, but a closing price just a little lower than the open. Today, we have had the swings, but it seems that the war between the bulls and bears is pretty near even, the stock being down just .35 or so when I write.

I write these things just to offer my 10 cent opinion and perhaps help you make a prudent decision with NPGS.

Best investing to you always!

[Thomrich]

Greetings,
I dont think its done yet,its breaking into 22 range as I type,Im out for the duration ,as I think this whole market is setting up for a haircut.INTC will be the catalyst IMO.

Never try catching a falling knife could not be truer.

BTW ,I did a nice swing on PGH post dist.,in at 19.30,out at 20.30.in two days.
Thats 5 mos distributions in 2 days,and no 15% withholding.

cordially Tom

[noshadyldy]

NGPS is giving a nice scoop up but it's done this several times over the last 5 days on it's way down. Don't know if it's my woman's intuition or that last donut I just ate, but I've got an uneasy feeling in my stomach and I just don't trust it yet.
Newborn baby and spike, I'm checking in later to get your input if any.
Now back to comfort eating. oink!

[New-born baby]

Pgh

Greetings,
I dont think its done yet,its breaking into 22 range as I type,Im out for the duration ,as I think this whole market is setting up for a haircut.INTC will be the catalyst IMO.

Never try catching a falling knife could not be truer.

BTW ,I did a nice swing on PGH post dist.,in at 19.30,out at 20.30.in two days.
Thats 5 mos distributions in 2 days,and no 15% withholding.

cordially Tom

PGH--
Hey, why don't you give me a heads-up and I'll jump in with you next time? I'd like that!

Why don't you give us your set-uo? For instance, are you looking to buy at $19, or what?

[Thomrich]

Greetings,
On PGH or any other canroy,I look after distribution date for a drop,usually to 50dma and see if it holds,then buy usually 1k shares.This past month it happened back to back days.Its a stable swing IMO because of the monthly dist.,it doesnt sink below 13% yield .

Ill be watching EENC for a similar play.

Its not huge moves like a SIRI,but its quick,and regular.

Now if I didnt bite on NGPS today Id feel much better.

cordially Tom

[spikefader]

Greetings Spike,
I jumped on the bus with NGPS today at 25.85,intraday it looked to bottom out around mid morning,and tried to catch at 25,it shot so fast to 26 I thought it was off to the races,instead of leaving my buy at 25 and being patient,I raised to 25.85 and left for lunch,not really liking my chances of gettng filled.Well the rest is history,as it nosedived below 25.

I believe I know the reason for the sell-off,as of 12-30-04 CMC electronic,a holding company for NGPS had a sale of 3million shares,effectively doubling the float,which correspondingly cut 50% from the pps.

I figure Ill look for an easy exit asap,usually is the strongest in the morning.Would this affect your trading strategy at all?I couldnt understand the sharp selling pressure until I dug that up tonight.

cordially Tom

Hey Tom. lol "off to the races", yeah, I know that feeling. Thanks for the headsup on news for NGPS.

What will I do with this? Well, I'll stick to the plan and hold patiently. My size is appropriate to the risk and unless it breaks the 100% retrace zone (relative to the low I used) I'll not get worried. Should that 100% retrace occur, I'll modify my target based on the last valid 50% entry point and take 15% from there instead of my entry.

Right now, NGPS is making a lovely bullish intraday move, taking out the open and continuing. This should give us a nice daily candle to boost the spirits noshady

[New-born baby]

Greetings,
On PGH or any other canroy,I look after distribution date for a drop,usually to 50dma and see if it holds,then buy usually 1k shares.This past month it happened back to back days.Its a stable swing IMO because of the monthly dist.,it doesnt sink below 13% yield .

Ill be watching EENC for a similar play.

Its not huge moves like a SIRI,but its quick,and regular.

Now if I didnt bite on NGPS today Id feel much better.

cordially Tom

Tom,

Throw me a headsup next trade, a day or two in advance, if you will. Also, any other Cans you trade besides EENC and PGH?

My prognosis for NGPS is that it hit bottom today, and should move up Wednesday.

[New-born baby]

My prognosis for NGPS is that it hit bottom today, and should move up Wednesday.[/QUOTE]

NGPS--looking over the candlestick chart, it appears (re: "it appears") that NGPS may be set up today for a piercing pattern reversal. What that means is that yesterday's price action formed a pattern that signals a reversal in the trend. Of course, NGPS was downtrending (to say the least!) and a recognizable pattern formed that may (re: "may") signal a trend reversal.
What we need to do today is look for bullish confirmation that the "Piercing Pattern" is indeed a "Piercing Pattern." That means we should look for up price movement on increased volume. I think we might successfully trade the stock this way:

1. Wait at least 15 minutes. We don't want to get caught in a bull trap. A bull trap is when the stock surges upwards at the open, and then dives back down to lower than yesterday's close. ELN is famous for these, King!

2. Then if the volume is up and the price moves above yesterday's afternoon high, about $25.99, then I think we have confirmation. If we do not get the surge, we do not have confirmation.

At this time, this is a highly volatile stock. The market has been downtrending and probably has some more to go. (Bear suit on now,Spike! We were up over 500 points since the election). I myself would look to NGPS for a short term day or swing trade to capture $1 or $2. Get it and get out. "There's danger here, Cheri." And remember IIC's famous line,'WHEN IN DOUBT, GET OUT." I like it. If you get a $1 gap up and get greedy, don't forget to use trailing stops.

We will watch and see what happens today.

[Runner]

Very good points Newborn. In this type of market DT or Swing works well off reversals. I concur 100% in regards of expectancy on return. Take what you can get and pull out. Holding overnight in this current environment could be painful.

[New-born baby]

Your Eagle Eye

Runner,

I like your Eagle Eye. Great avatar for a tech trader like you.

NGPS DID NOT confirm this morning. It did not break out of yesterday's high at open, and has since dogged down again. Apparently, yesterday was just a temporary breather on another leg down.

Also, did you notice the bear trap this morning? Gapped up, then fell. A real killer.

My advice: stand back and let her fall.

[spikefader]

Now back to comfort eating. oink!

LOL that really is funny when I think about it. Eyes fixed to the screen with a box of a dozen Krispy Creme donuts in your lap, reaching for your 10th donut as NGPS breaks yet another intraday support level. Maybe in 10 years you'll think back and laugh..... hey, ya gotta laugh otherwise you'd cry. Emotions really hurt when a plan doesn't work. It's alll great and wonderful when a plan comes together, but oh so hard to accept failure. We humans are so complicated when we don't prove ourselves 100% foolproof. It's hard enough to admit defeat to ourselves let alone to others!

Anyway, seriously on NGPS though, it's very close to forcing me to recalculate my exit. It's close to taking out the 100% retrace zone from my entry - I took the 50% calculation from 22.53, so if that breaks then it would be illogical not to reformulate the target based on the next significant 50% retrace, which is from the low of 12.00 back in October. So from 12.00 to 50.30 is the move, and 50% is 31.20 give or take a few pennies. So 31.50 + 15% = 36.22. From my entry, that is about 9% profit and one heck of an emotional ride to get it. If that 100% breaks, it goes back to the next low and so on.

Just to make it clear, I'll not close this one using a stop, but only at a logical 50% retrace + 15% point. This is as unemotional as anyone can get about it. And the way I see it, even if it goes back to the 50% retrace from the move from back at the 1.76 low in Oct 02, we're still looking at a target of 29.95, which is only 3 1/2 points in the red from my entry.

Sometimes logic calls for patience ............ and the ability to eat 12 donuts in one sitting

[spikefader]

ACRG update. Retargetting to upper channel at 3.75. Stop to even now.