Runner's Rascals

[skiracer]

Runner,
Could you explain what goes into the volitaility index. What are the parameters or specifics that you plug into it to determine the value for whether it is to volitaile or not.

[Runner]

This is an experiment and thus is being treated as one. Most people only relate volatility to a sinking market. I’m going one step further by using a range to determine low and high volatility signals.

Right now we are in a high (Volatility short) range. By looking at a chart of the Nasdaq one could easily see the signal has worked well for shorting the market. Notice the first day from my chart I posted the high range was triggered. This coincided with my weekend research as I’ve seen many stocks setting up on the short side. This has favored the short side of the market, but anyone knows this. I’m going to be looking for a reverse in the volatility to a LONG range. When this will happen is anyone’s guess and so we shall just play it each day.

The formula is simplistic in nature.

NYSE closing price X 0.001618= then add and subtract from the closing price to get the low range.

For high range go with X 0.01618

Nasdaq 100 X 0.01618 Low range and X 0.03618 for high. I don't have the data for the Nasdaq compq and so I'm trying the one from the NYSE.

I hope this helps!

[Runner]

Anyone care to give a stab on my waves? Not for sure so take with a grain of sand!!
If 5-wave completion is in we should have 3 waves down. This chart is of the Nasdaq. This is assuming that wave 3 is finished at the 50% fib line.

Posted this chart on 04/04 looks like the 5a wave may need to be adjusted. If we make a 3 wave corrective move I think 1750’s is a possibility, but just my take. We all know what the market thinks of what my take is on it. If the 50 slides under the 200dma this will put the nail in the coffin.

[Runner]

Reason you see the High range green is because we breached the 1919 area, this put us into high range!

[Runner]

[Runner]

[Runner]

Wrote these thoughts a few days ago. I guess it might apply!!

Journal for Mon 04/18/05>>>>

Well Not much to speak of today as far as the market goes. Thinking a bounce is in the very near future. Now let me see how many traders lost money last week, or are holding on HOPE? What will they do with the first pop up? I’m thinking a fleet of them will sell and run for cover. I’m not buying into this next rally attempt, but I wonder if it might be for real? Not my type of market and safety comes first by realizing the danger. You can’t see the storm from inside the boat with your back to the clouds. By the time you hear the thunder and feel the wind pick up it may be to late!!

You ask what the heck does this have to do with anything? Well that is up to how you perceive the context of the words. For some it will mean nothing, but for others it may mean a lot. Who knows as for me it meant remove the boat from the water and wait for clear sailing. This way my boat is safe and I’m safe because I’m not in the boat during a storm.

[B.J]

Yes, very appropriate, Runner.

I took my last two boats out of the water today. Happily, they were both above water. Wanted badly to keep them in, but I know this kind of storm is powerful enough to sink anything and everything.

Just time to watch now...

[Websman]

Now's a great time to preserve your capital. I'm still 100% cash.

[Runner]

[Runner]

[Runner]

[IIC]

Runner...where's the A/D's???

[Runner]

[Runner]