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I like this chart of UFPI. I would like to see the pullback drift up some more and get near the base. I think this stock belongs around the 36.00 area.
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JOYG is another candidate. Chart is a little loose and notice how it tightened up during the acceleration down from last base. This one needs to pull back more. I think this stock belongs around the 22.00 area
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Runner,Originally posted by RunnerI like this chart of UFPI. I would like to see the pullback drift up some more and get near the base. I think this stock belongs around the 36.00 area.
It looks to be setting up like it did previously before this recent drop. Another bear flag could easily take it down to under $40. That would be a nice short if it does drift up a bit before the next slide down. Looks worth keeping a eye on for the next couple of days. I think it tanks just like you called it.THE SKIRACER'S EDGE: MAKE THE EDGE IN YOUR FAVOR
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I got it loaded into my screen Ski. The group looks about the same. All in down trending mode. Not many in the group here is the list I show for comparison and group chart action. KOP LPX WY AERT AMWD MYS DEL POPEZComment
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Ski,Originally posted by skiracer
You are right. It seems to be working on a bear flag on the weekly, and if it busts current support ($50), then $40 minus seems to be the next stop. Nice call; I'll be watching it.Comment
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Pink line is the sub sector action for Lumber, Wood Production. Notice at point 1 how the sector puts in a mini double top. Action was confirmed in UFPI as well. Point 2 shows the sector in drift mode. Sector crashes with confirmation on UFPI. Point 3 shows sector possibly putting in a mini double top. This very well may act as R and send the group down for another leg out…
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My random port is sucking wind with stop out on SWK. Follow up off master short list from back in May. Almost everyone on these guys triggered and fell down very well. June 5th and 6th sems to have been the huge trigger day!!Originally posted by RunnerComment
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I like that one runner...Originally posted by RunnerI like this chart of UFPI. I would like to see the pullback drift up some more and get near the base. I think this stock belongs around the 36.00 area.
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Dmk, long time hope all is well!!
Here is my updated list of potential shorts. I have one long in here OMCL… Most in pullback mode..
PEIX IIIN AIRM WFR RTI YHOO ASPV FWLT WSO LRCX CASY ECOL ISIL UFPI RYL HAL BHS SCSS KBH HOV BZHComment
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Here a few I like BZH HOV and KBH all have the same set up taking place at the same time. In fact several in the Res Construction group look alike.
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My little experiment a few pages back on my test port is set up in a way I think is worth mentioning. Port value 10K and it has 10 positions. Most might think this is crazy and why would you buy 10 positions with only 10K? Here is what I’m interested in.
1. Risk
2. Size of position
Sure I’m risking 10% of the port if all got stopped out. This means I would loss 1,000 of the 10K. Now the actual risk per position is only 100. The size of the positions are based off the risk. You say wow why would one risk 10% on a position? Easy the position size defines my risk. Many do not understand this and simply plunk down the cash and buy as many shares as they can with out thinking about risk.
If you wanted you can size your position with as much risk as you want and still keep your 1-2% total risk tolerance of your position. 15-or 20% but here is what you should keep in mind. I’ll use my example port as an example. I’m risking 10% is this my R-multiple or R1. I’m looking for at least a R-multiple of 2 and ideally R3 or 30%. Each position is expected to increase to 20-30% or about $200-$300 remember I’m only risking 100. per position. I’ll then track the R-multiples for each position. Sure you might buy fewer shares, but you’ll not blow out your account. The experiment was also based on just a glance of the chart and that was it. I plan to run this experiment with my swing set-ups later.
First stop out is SWK with a little over R1 or 100.00
I think the huge trick with this is position allocation as to long or short. I’ve currently ran this port with a 30/70 or 30% long and 70% short. This is key in my mind.Comment
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Originally posted by Runner
Been out of the market for some time...it's been boring me. I found DXPE and it finally got me excited again
All is well...just busy with the 9-5 and my personal life.Comment
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Test Port had another R1 stop in ZMH and replaced it with UFPI short. I also took UFPI short in my real port. KBH did reach stop target and I pulled it due to weakness in the sector. Finally several are beginning to move in direction expected.
Current standings 9 open positions 5 up and 4 down. Will look for another short position to keep the 30/70 allocations.Comment
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Here is an interesting link. I-watch is suppose to give you a better feel for what the big boys are doing as far as buying and selling pressure. Take today as an example. The Q’s price went up, but further look under the hood says big dogs were dumping. How do you figure this out into the volume bare for today’s action? http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lyc...er?ticker=qqqqComment
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Well another stop out @ R1 with KBH and this makes a total of 3. Random port is sucking wind and thus far this little 10K is down 440.33. Only positive positions after first week is NJR CBSS and BYD. The 30/70 mix did not pan out this week as far as the shorts. I can see where this can really move against you if on the wrong side of the market. I’ll continue to play this port out and see what happens. I’ll set up another one and this time instead of the random entries I’ll focus on set-ups I like and compare both ports.Comment
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