Jiesen tries to take over the world

[jiesen]

sold some WSB for 9

reduced my XING position again (~1%) and put it into WSB, since if $9 is a great price, $8 is even better. I'll start worrying if it hits 6.

C'mon, it's a bank! how can a bank with $50M in net assets earning $20M per year be worth less than $60M?

yeah, the bad construction loans are troubling, but they don't have ALL their assets tied up in them...

http://www.twsb.com/up_docs/10qjan.pdf

Sold the extra 1% in WSB for 9. I am thinking to move this to OFG, at its current rock-bottom price, or just add it to my purchase of the next $$MM pick, depending what it is.

[jiesen]

sold CME for 259

also, CME just hit my stop at 259, so I sold the rest of my CME. thanks again for the 15% gain, $$MM!!!

You are HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE!

[New-born baby]

OGF--on sale again

Sold the extra 1% in WSB for 9. I am thinking to move this to OFG, at its current rock-bottom price, or just add it to my purchase of the next $$MM pick, depending what it is.

Yesterday's spike in OFG resulted in today's sell off: down the same 75 cents it was up yesterday.

[jiesen]

bought GFCI back, and some CMTL

Took the opportunity in today's market weakness to buy back half of my CMTL position (which I'd already sold for 15%) at a good discount here (32.2). I'll buy the other half back if it continues this slide to around 30. Also got my GFCI back for 0.41. Nothing has changed really since it was 0.80, and they've updated their production timeline to say that they're on schedule.... so as long as they earn 0.23-0.25 this year, like they're supposed to, then 0.41 has got to be a good value for this stock. I may pick up some more of this, also, if it drops to 0.35 or so, but for now I'm still keeping the position very small (<1%).

[skiracer]

Love CMTL at these prices. Nothing has changed with this stock fundamentally. Just watching right now for it to bottom and for the right entry point. As soon as I see that I'll be back into it. Be ready for an explosive bounce of 2 to 4 points once the momo guys start to pick up on it.
It's been one of the leaders in it's tech sector (telecom) and will return to be one of the leaders again if the markets cooperate at all. So much depends on the oil situation which looks to be worsening. It might be wise to hold off until you see a firm move up first.
It's hard to hold back with it trading at these prices but patience will pay off right now.

[jiesen]

yeah. I agree that I'm probably a bit early getting back into CMTL. I originally wanted to get it for 31, but decided to take half at 32 here, and get the rest if and when it gets down to 30. I like the fundamentals for this stock too much to let it get away, when it's priced at this level. I know it's going back to 38 eventually, and I'd hate to miss my second 15%+ opportunity on CMTL because I got too greedy waiting for another 3% discount...

[New-born baby]

Greedy Junkyard Dogs

yeah. I agree that I'm probably a bit early getting back into CMTL. I originally wanted to get it for 31, but decided to take half at 32 here, and get the rest if and when it gets down to 30. I like the fundamentals for this stock too much to let it get away, when it's priced at this level. I know it's going back to 38 eventually, and I'd hate to miss my second 15%+ opportunity on CMTL because I got too greedy waiting for another 3% discount...

Okay, look at this:

Click on chart; then click on chart again.

Now look at the weekly: gives a nice view, with a warning:

[skiracer]

Interpretation of the chart is such an individual thing. A dozen people would see it a dozen different ways. One specific that I feel very seldom fails as an alert is when the stock touches or is about to touch the upper or lower channel lines. Touching the top channel line usually suggests a possible pullback and touching the bottom channel line makes me start to anticipate a bounce upward. CMTL's weekly is getting close to that bottom line as you pointed out on your chart.
Another phenomenom that always gives me that warm feeling about a stock that I have been following is when the price seems so cheap that friends start talking about how cheap it is an how good it's beginning to look to them at that price.
It just seems to me that at this level and with it just about touching the bottom channel line it is sending up a alert flag for a possible entry.
Another point I keep trying to answer for myself is why the big drop in price over the last few days. I can't seem to come up with an answer to that question other than profit taking, which is a normal function of all traders at some point in owning a position in any stock. Coupled with irrational emotional herd mentality and behavior it doesn't take much to get the domino effect rolling and the shorts will get it falling everytime. It's when it reaches that point where the price is ridiculously cheap that the sharks return to feed. I have a feeling that we are near that point after today.
Let me ask you this question? Does it seem very cheap to you at this level an if it were to go down a little farther would it be even more enticing. This is what drives the greedy day, swing, and momo guys. The whole deal is to be quick, ready, and nimble enough to realize when it is making that move and to make the trade at that time. You'll have to be watching it closely to catch it at that moment but if it gets close to 30 I think any entry around there is going to be a great play.

[New-born baby]

Greedy MoMo guys!

That red ink--like the smell of blood in the water to feeding sharks. This is what drives the greedy day, swing, and momo guys.

Hey! I'M a GREEDY MoMo GUY!


Ski,
I like your posts. Why don't you throw up here some of your plays that I might consider copying? I mean, it wouldn't hurt you if I jumped in on top of you, would it?

[skiracer]

New-Born,
Two prime examples of what I was talking about. CMTL and NGPS. Just a matter of time before they got so cheap that the smell of blood brought in the sharks. Both good stocks with alot going for them fundamentally. Nothing changed with either of them fundamentally except for profit-taking last week. Beaten down and cheap enough now to look good enough again for all the short term guys to believe there is enough room for some more profit taking. Both up over a point today.
But what matters most is being tuned in to the move and to make the trade early enough to capitalize on the move.
Jiesen was right on top of the play with the realization that CMTL was pretty cheap at 32 and the best part about it was that he wasn't procrastinating about making the play that he believed in.
Knowing that you can always exit at any point to limit losses is the best protection plan available. Making the play you believe in takes some balls.

HTRN broke through 13 again. Not a bad play from last weeks low of around 11.80.

[jiesen]

New-Born,
Two prime examples of what I was talking about. CMTL and NGPS. Just a matter of time before they got so cheap that the smell of blood brought in the sharks. Both good stocks with alot going for them fundamentally. Nothing changed with either of them fundamentally except for profit-taking last week. Beaten down and cheap enough now to look good enough again for all the short term guys to believe there is enough room for some more profit taking. Both up over a point today.
But what matters most is being tuned in to the move and to make the trade early enough to capitalize on the move.
Jiesen was right on top of the play with the realization that CMTL was pretty cheap at 32 and the best part about it was that he wasn't procrastinating about making the play that he believed in.
Knowing that you can always exit at any point to limit losses is the best protection plan available. Making the play you believe in takes some balls.

HTRN broke through 13 again. Not a bad play from last weeks low of around 11.80.

hey thanks for getting my back, ski. if you'll notice, my GFCI pick is also up around 14% today.

[jiesen]

go AMLN!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AMLN&t=5d

AMLN train appears to be leaving the station... not too late to jump aboard!

[skiracer]

I was a little shocked to see CMTL and NGPS both fall the way they did. When they got as cheap as they did I knew it was just a matter of time before the momo guys would pick up on it. You beat them to the punch.
I actually thought that we would see them both fall a bit more before the feeding started. I caught them both early this morning. NGPS at 25.50 and CMTL at 32.20.
This type of action is so typical with these situations after big drops like both of these had, so I wouldn't be counting my chickens yet as both bounces occurred on lower than average daily volume. I'll be setting pretty close stops on both of them to insure some of the gains. I would feel more comfortable with the bounce if they had some volume behind the moves but without the volume the move becomes somewhat suspect. Regardless it's nice when it goes the way you figured it would.
With the low volume gain today I would protect the gain first as tomorrow could be a reversal of what we had today.
Just out of curiousity how do you come up with a stock like GFCI or did someone give you a tip? Not knocking it but just curious.

[Websman]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AMLN&t=5d

AMLN train appears to be leaving the station... not too late to jump aboard!

Dang! I hate it when the train takes off without me, but I did manage to jump on board with VPHM and EZEN.

[jiesen]

I was a little shocked to see CMTL and NGPS both fall the way they did. When they got as cheap as they did I knew it was just a matter of time before the momo guys would pick up on it. You beat them to the punch.
I actually thought that we would see them both fall a bit more before the feeding started. I caught them both early this morning. NGPS at 25.50 and CMTL at 32.20.
This type of action is so typical with these situations after big drops like both of these had, so I wouldn't be counting my chickens yet as both bounces occurred on lower than average daily volume. I'll be setting pretty close stops on both of them to insure some of the gains. I would feel more comfortable with the bounce if they had some volume behind the moves but without the volume the move becomes somewhat suspect. Regardless it's nice when it goes the way you figured it would.
With the low volume gain today I would protect the gain first as tomorrow could be a reversal of what we had today.
Just out of curiousity how do you come up with a stock like GFCI or did someone give you a tip? Not knocking it but just curious.

yeah, it was a tip (from a guy on the Yahoo! XING message board) that I started looking at when it was trading in the .30s. I saw it dip to .18, and my DD told me that was way below what it was worth so I picked up a bit of it. I sold it for a good profit at .44, and when I got news that they had begun shipping their product, I figured it was worth getting back in at a good price, so I waited for .41 and jumped back in. Admittedly, this is a bit more risky than the .18 buy, but they are targeting an EPS of .25 this year! So far, it sounds to me to be legit... but you never know, so do some DD yourself before you follow any of my moves.