Jiesen tries to take over the world

[jiesen]

thought I'd mention that CGTK popped up on my radar, after dropping 50% today on a bad trial result. at 2.60 they're trading just .30 above cash on hand. may be worth a look at this level...

I am sure it's a technical nightmare, but from a value perspective... maybe?

[spikefader]

thought I'd mention that CGTK popped up on my radar, after dropping 50% today on a bad trial result. at 2.60 they're trading just .30 above cash on hand. may be worth a look at this level...

I am sure it's a technical nightmare, but from a value perspective... maybe?

LOL oh ya. Good one to learn from though. Never underestimate a channel break, and channel short. Look at the genius entry.

Just say you were long this stock, and you saw that channel break, and you were clever and you hedged with puts, both at the channel break, and at the channel short week, you would absolutely be laughing at your options profit, and if you loved the stock that much, you can take those profits, and add a new position to your existing one way down here, and ride it up for a gap fill opportunity. But if you didn't hedge, you'd be kicking the cat, the dog, the wall, and anything else that got in your way.

It's a jungle out there. Build a safehouse when you need to.

[jiesen]

LOL oh ya. Good one to learn from though. Never underestimate a channel break, and channel short. Look at the genius entry.

Just say you were long this stock, and you saw that channel break, and you were clever and you hedged with puts, both at the channel break, and at the channel short week, you would absolutely be laughing at your options profit, and if you loved the stock that much, you can take those profits, and add a new position to your existing one way down here, and ride it up for a gap fill opportunity. But if you didn't hedge, you'd be kicking the cat, the dog, the wall, and anything else that got in your way.

It's a jungle out there. Build a safehouse when you need to.

LOL! Great analysis, Spike!

[Websman]

I think ELN is going to bounce again...

[spikefader]

I think ELN is going to bounce again...

I'll take that bet!

[jiesen]

I think ELN is going to bounce again...

if it bounces off of 2, you can bet I'll be riding it!

[jiesen]

bought XING calls (June $10) for .15

buying the calls to cover a sale of a 1% position in XING, which I'll do either at 6.0 or 5.5, whichever comes first. I'm trying to lower my exposure to this stock, but keep my bases covered in case a good ER comes out by June. I still think this could be a $15 stock in a matter of days or weeks.

[jiesen]

sold 1% XING at 5.2

XING blew past my 5.5 stop, so I ended up selling at 5.2. Actually could have gotten 6.0 last week but was too slow pulling the trigger and missed it! Should have put my limit in earlier... ah well.

[jiesen]

I just bought half of my AMLN position (about 1% of port) back at 19.2. Going for another shot at this big game of chicken before their approval "date" of April 30. I see the momentum has turned back up, and will probably keep going throughout the week as approval hopefuls pile in. I'll probably sell at 21 or 22... at 18 I *may* pick up more, but at 16 I'll cut bait and run away.

Changed my mind on my AMLN stop. I'm not selling at 16 with an approval in the bag! New target is 26, and will probably be moved up again on further clarification from FDA. It appears the approval was partial, but that will not stop AMLN from receiving full approval 6-8 months from now. They can still sell the drug in the meantime... the only difference is now they can only make $2B in the first year instead of $3B.

I'd be the last person anyone should listen to for investment advice, but I think this is the best opportunity I've seen in a long time for an approved drug at a discount. Drug is approved and stock drops 10%. Unbelievable!

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050429/def012.html?.v=8

UPDATE 2-FDA OKs Lilly-Amylin drug for type 2 diabetes
Fri Apr 29, 2005 09:19 AM ET
(Updates share price, changes dateline from CHICAGO) By Toni Clarke

NEW YORK, April 29 (Reuters) - A drug derived from lizard saliva has been approved by U.S. regulators to treat diabetes in patients who have not responded to other treatments, the drug's developers, Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AMLN.O: Quote, Profile, Research) , said on Friday.

The drug, exenatide, to be sold under the brand name Byetta, was approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration as a twice-a-day injectable add-on therapy for patients with type II diabetes -- the most common form -- whose blood sugar is not sufficiently controlled by two other treatments.

The drug is made from the saliva of the Gila monster lizard, which lives in the Arizona desert and eats just four times a year. Exenatide is the first of a new class of drugs known as incretin mimetics. It mimics hormones, released in the human gut in response to food, that help regulate glucose levels.

About 18 million people in the United States have diabetes, or 6.2 percent of the population. Diabetics are unable to produce enough insulin or cannot process their insulin properly, resulting in dangerously high blood-sugar levels, which can lead to heart disease, blindness and amputations if not treated.

The FDA did not approve the drug as a stand-alone treatment, which would have represented a bigger market. The agency said any additional data the companies present in order to win approval as a stand-alone therapy would be reviewed within six months.

Amylin shares fell 38 cents, or 2 percent, to $17.90 in pre-market trading on the Inet electronic brokerage network. Lilly's shares were unchanged at $58. (Additional reporting by Julie Steenhuysen in Chicago)

[jiesen]

sold RRGB

with the market acting like it is, I decided to lock in gains on RRGB at 49 and maybe cut back some more in other stocks too... probably XING or PRX. OFG is depressing me but it's way too low to consider selling it now.

cash is definitely where to be- that's the only consolation I've got right now.

[jiesen]

bought UTSI today at 7.3

I cut back on my XING once again at 5.1 (1% of port) and also sold out of AFT (also 1%) at 3.4. Instead I'm taking a 1% position in UTSI, to hopefully take advantage of a severe overreaction to the recent decline in revenues. The company is trading far below book value right now, and if they can keep above water through restructuring, they should have no problem bringing the stock price right back up to 20 or so. It's a big risk, though, so if it falls any further (below 7), I'll probably bail and put the money back in AFT, if that one's still trading in the 3's. The goal here is to spread some of my XING money around so I'm not overexposed to it anymore, but I want to stay in the telecom sector so I don't miss the inevitable rebound.

[Websman]

How about ELN? Do you think we could make a few bucks in it?

[jiesen]

How about ELN? Do you think we could make a few bucks in it?

yeah, I think there's a good chance to profit from ELN long-term from this price, but short-term is anyone's guess. at 3 it was the PERFECT time to get in, and I can't believe we just stood by and passed it up. I guess I was waiting for a 3rd shoe to drop or something, and I missed it. oh well, I'm not putting more into drugs right now, and actually that thinking is also part of what had me hesitate at 3.

anyway, if ELN is your thing, don't let me stop you from buying it just because I won't.

ELN has to figure out how to turn their 1.5B in cash into 2B before their debt is due. if they can do that, and get a decent pipeline, I think they'll be back to 20 or 30 again. Tysabri is pretty much taken out of the equation at this point. if they somehow do manage to get it back on track, we'll probably see 50 again, and that would just be icing on the cake. ELN is far more than just a 1-trick pony, imo.

[Websman]

I'll buy a few shares of ELN if it drops back some more.

[jiesen]

sold OFG bought WSB

I just sold the shares of OFG I picked up after the big drop for a small loss, used the proceeds to double up in WSB instead. I couldn't pass up the opportunity to get this for 9.15, and I wasn't quite feeling the OFG trade... perhaps there's more to fall on that one, but WSB is even more undervalued here, in my book, so if I put more back in OFG, it'll be after selling these WSB shares at 11-12.