Jiesen tries to take over the world

[jiesen]

Bought LJPC at 4.1

added another 1% to my ~20% position in LJPC today at 4.1

[jiesen]

New investor for LJPC - Fouad El Adli

Looks like a molecular biologist/poker player has just put his $10M into LJPC:

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_L/threadview?m=tm&bn=10714&tid=59922&mid=59931&tof=4&rt=2&frt=2&off=1

How many more of these purchases does LJPC need to soak up the remaining float? Won't take much now to send this stock soaring...

[jiesen]

Heya Billyjoe...

Yeah, TUNE is the story of my life... just didn't have the patience to see it through, would have been pretty good so far, probably still has a ways to go. It seems my patience lasts for the stinkers more often than the winners. Wonder why that is?

Anyway, as for ESMC:

On the surface it looks pretty good, especially with the recent revenue increase (about $10M). Of course on closer inspection that turns out to be a one-time settlement of a lawsuit with Interlase.

This is not a company that $$MM would be comfortable buying- last year they lost $2M.

Still, to me it's interesting, since they did get a recent FDA approval of a glucose analyzer- this should help grow the earnings in the future. The stock seems to be responding well to the news, and it's still more or less inexpensive.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ESMC&t=1y

Consider that the market cap is $46M*, and the net assets for the company are about $20M. If they can get enough business from this new contraption to generate, say, $4M or so in NET income next year, I'd say it's currently priced at a bargain at $7/shr. Wouldn't be too much of a stretch, considering a couple years ago they were making about $2.5M. But that's where you'd want to do your homework, make sure they're not just going to blow the incoming revenue on wasteful projects. I suggest further reading of the 10-Q filings until you're confident they have a good strategy for making that money before putting up the cash.

http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/fetchFilingFrameset.aspx?dcn=0000893220-07-001916&Type=HTML

(it's interesting to note that the CEO hired his son and daughter-in-law for $200K total in consulting)

Also consider, glucose monitoring, creatinine, nitrogen analysis- these aren't all that special or difficult to do- barriers to entry aren't so high here, so ESMC probably won't be able to make tons of money off of this latest device. They'll need to have better things in development for future income. Look for a long-term plan with this guy as well.

Good luck with it if you decide to buy!

*And definitely double-check the $46M market cap I pulled from the Yahoo! Finance data, which is quite often incorrect (but always free), before making any investment decision based on it.

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
Was checking out the under $10 stocks today and thought of you when I came across ESMC. Spike , Doug , and Newborn used to post a lot about ESMC 2-3 years ago but nothing recently. Looks promising again . What do you think? Also TUNE keeps popping up on the screens again, maybe you were too early with it.

----------billyjoe

[jiesen]

Bought ANSV at 6.6

Picked up a 1% position in ANSV today. This one intrigues me, and with the recent FDA approval, I believe it must rise significantly in the near-term. I plan to sell this year with at least a 50% gain (target=$10). If it drops 50%, though, I'll make it a 2% position... Such is the risk of a biotech with $0 coming in.

[jiesen]

Sold those shares today for a 7% profit at 6.5. Yikes, that's one trade I feel lucky to have gotten out of alive!

Damn, I should have held onto those NFI shares. Could have had 9/shr if I had kept it just a couple weeks longer.

[jiesen]

She said the company is considering two possible deal structures: one being a global partnership with a single company; the other being separate deals covering different regions of the world, depending on which would create most value for shareholders.

See, she actually cares about the shareholders, unlike many CEOs.

[jiesen]

the jury's still out on this one but...

added another 1% to my LJPC position here at 4.5. Got a feeling something is about to happen with it, as it's been quiet for a while, and the uptick today may be the start of something big. We'll see!

It's beginning to look like that wasn't a bad time to add after all, since it turns out there is a partnership deal in the works!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=LJPC&t=5d

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN0934707420070809?rpc=44

That, and the $77M shelf should help LJPC keep the cash pile alit until the trial is done.

from the story:
La Jolla says in partnership talks on Lupus drug
By Toni Clarke
BOSTON, Aug 9 (Reuters) - La Jolla Pharmaceutical Co (LJPC.O: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Thursday it is in "serious" partnership discussions with big pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies over its experimental drug to treat Lupus.
Chief Executive Officer Deirdre Gillespie said in an interview that the company expects to sign a deal by the end of the first quarter of next year, or even earlier.
Gillespie said La Jolla has "serious discussions going on," based on renewed optimism among potential partners following the release of clinical trial data that suggests the drug -- long in development -- may still have a future.
She said the company is considering two possible deal structures: one being a global partnership with a single company; the other being separate deals covering different regions of the world, depending on which would create most value for shareholders.
Regardless of which option it chooses, "we will keep at least part of the United States for ourselves," she said.
La Jolla has been struggling to win approval for its Lupus drug for years.
In 2004, U.S. regulators declined to approve the drug until the company provided more clinical data proving it works.
Now, with a new management in place and a new, more robust clinical trial underway, the company hopes to win back the credibility of investors whose hopes have been dashed more than once.
Earlier this year La Jolla released clinical data from a study of its drug, Riquent, that showed it was well tolerated at higher doses than previously studied. The company is hoping its new trial will show that a higher dose of the drug will improve its efficacy.
Gillespie said the decision to test the drug at 300-milligram and 900-milligram doses, compared with the previously tested 100-milligram dose, was largely a matter of trial and error, but that early data suggests it could work substantially better.
An initial glimpse of efficacy data will be revealed before the end of this year, but Gillespie said potential partners show no sign of waiting for the data to be released.
Many biotech companies these days wait for as much data to be released as possible before signing a deal, because the better the data the better the terms they are likely to win.
But Gillespie said that she is willing to sign a partnership deal early to help rebuild confidence in the drug, in the company's credibility and in the stock.
"That would give me currency to do other things further down the road," she said.
La Jolla's stock rose 5.3 percent to $4.95 late Thursday afternoon on Nasdaq, after rising as high as $5.59 earlier in the day.

[jiesen]

too hot to hold

added 1% to my NFI position today (at 6.1).

go ahead and say it, NBB, you know you want to...

Sold those shares today for a 7% profit at 6.5. Yikes, that's one trade I feel lucky to have gotten out of alive!

[jiesen]

drinking some more Kool-aid

added 1% to my NFI position today (at 6.1).

go ahead and say it, NBB, you know you want to...

[jiesen]

couldn't carry a TUNE

I sold out of my TUNE position today for a loss of 0.02/shr. It didn't seem to be happening for me, so I'll look for a better place to put the money.

Looking back, I probably just got overexcited here, and shouldn't have been messing with this one in the first place.

[jiesen]

hooked on a TUNE!

I just took a 3% position in TUNE today at 5.55. Why not? I figure I might as well buy something while there's so much blood on the street, and what better way to do it than by picking up a hot stock on a breakout like this one. I don't know much about it other than it has a great reason to break out right now- earnings are breaking out, so that means the stock should, too.

So with that in mind, I'm keeping my horizon and patience short with this one. One week is probably all I'm going to give this one to pay off, and any drop below 5.1 will stop me out today. For that risk, I'm expecting a 10% reward, so my target is 6.1. I think the odds are in my favor. After all, I've got Doug on my side on this one.

[jiesen]

AMLN was pumped last night on CNBC's "Fast Money" show. Did you see it?

nope, all the more reason to take the profit while it's available. I just noticed that the price has gone up, but nothing else has changed.

Long-term, I'll still hold AMLN, because I believe there's plenty of potential left with the products in the pipeline (these seem to be on track to do very well). The immediate results aren't really exceeding my expectations, though, as much as the price movement is. (I am paying attention to script growth and earnings.)

AMLN was pumped last night on CNBC's "Fast Money" show. Did you see it?

[jiesen]

Taking profit on AMLN today

Added another 2% of AMLN to my portfolio today at 41.4. I'm now up to 4% AMLN.

Sold half of my AMLN (2%) here at 47.7, which is about 15% above where I picked these shares up 3 months ago. Not a bad return, imo. I'd consider doing this trade again, for sure! But I may put the money into LJPC instead, depending on how much lower it decides to go.