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Thursday morning 11:47 PLMO is hovering around the opening price. Volume is up some , but not crazy like the last couple days. I don't think anyone knows what earnings will be. The volume and price action look like cautious optimism to me. Conference call in 5 1/2 hours.
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Thursday afternoon 2:08pm PLMO is down to my purchase price no profit left why didn't I just buy MSO (Martha Stewart) she knows how to run a company. Less than 3 hours till earnings. Are the big guys trying to get rid of us little guys before a run up? Is it a voice from beyond warning me to GET OUT! No, I'm not listening . Profits will be mine!
billyjoeComment
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My semi-theory on earnings reports is this: it is very risky to hold through them. If you sell before the CC, and it is positive enough, you can always buy back in and get in on some upswing. If it is negative, you have sold, and don't take the hit. If its neutral, you can figure the stock may be dead money and put the cash somewhere else. That being said, if I have confidence in the company beatings earnings, I hold through. If they have a history of beating, and have not said anything that might foreshadow lower earnings, then its worth a bit of risk. One thing I never do except in extremely rare cases, is trust pre-market trading. Anywho, its all about confidence in the company, which comes from a bunch of research...
Yesterday the President and a Director dumped some shares, are they confident?
How confident are you???
-DaveLast edited by Guest; 12-16-2004, 04:04 PM.Comment
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Thursday afternoon 3:09 pm The stock is down to 41.65 and I'm down $225. Volume is picking up. Are people panicking thinking earnings won't be met? wwmmd What would Mr.Market do? If he believed in the company he'd hold on and that's what I'm doing. This may just be a coincidence but the current price is right at the pivot point on Dec.13th when all the action started. Let the chips fall where they may.
billyjoeComment
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Thursday afternoon 4:17 pm PLMO closed at 42.55 putting me up 50 some dollars. After hours trading is at 38.50 with more sell orders than buy orders, but I notice the buy orders are for greater quantities more 1000 share lots and even 5000 lots. Maybe institutions are after bargains. Earnings announcement in 38 minutes.
billyjoeComment
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Down on fairly heavy aftermarket volume, but look for a good rebound. My prediction would be, at this point, you might be about even at the open tomorrow, or at least not down much. I still don't like the insiders dumping right before earnings, even if it is not a large number of shares.
Go PLMO!
-CoachComment
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Thursday 5:40 pm Things aren't looking good . This quarter met estimates at .53 , but next quarter may be lower, however, total for the year remains unchanged. Afterhour trading is down around 36.50 , not good ,but I'll not panic yet, maybe tomorrow.
billyjoeComment
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Thursday evening 7:26pm Geraldo is about to open the PLMO vault. They bought the building from the Alexander Graham Bell estate. He invented the first smart phone. Geraldo "I'll just pry open this door and shine my flashlight in. There's a big pile of ............. is it money? No it's bullcrap." It'll be bagged and weighed. We'll determine the amount tomorrow around 9:30 am
billyjoeComment
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I'll Be Bagged and Weighted, I Like That. Are you from the potatoe country.GO BIG RED!!!!!Comment
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Mea, No, but I've dabbled in both fertilizer and produce.
billyjoeComment
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Friday morning 7:00 am PLMO down over 15% in extended trading
" I"ve gambled with my life
and now I"ve lost my will to fight
Oh! these chains are so tight"*
* a forgotten group from early 70s
billyjoeComment
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Pre-market doesn't look that great, but it could just be MMs working some cheap shares. Just keep in mind that pre-market is only retail suckers like us, and generally does not mean much. I wouldn't panic until later today. Give people some time to digest the 10Q and the CC.
-DaveComment
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Friday morning 10:11am My last post was mysteriously deleted. PLMO down 19.8% from my purchase . I was up $1275 or 11% on Dec.14th now am down $2500 or 19.8%. What about "let your winners run, especially if they go up 10% in one day hold for at least 8 weeks it could double or quadruple." Well this winner became a big loser in 2 hours it ran into the ground. Maybe "sell immediately at 8% loss" works better in this situation.
My next selection will have the characteristics sure to produce $$$. The CEO will be a convicted felon preferable currently in the slammer (MSO) It will produce a great product then let it become outdated and showing little potential (AAPL), and it will produce a product that seriously injures or kills hundreds or thousands of its customers (MRK). All PLMO did was meet quarterly concensus .53 , but lower expectations for next quarter while meeting the yearly expectations. This is unforgiveable. Sorry about this rant.
Dave, thanks for your support. PLMO will be placed in the "Phoenix" portfolio where it will arise from the ashes.
This will be the final entry in The Worried Traders Diary unless something unexpected happens in the next few days.
billyjoeComment
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This is an interesting situation. I would consider this a bit of an over-reaction and a good entry point for PLMO on the long side. If one of my stocks gets into a situation like this, I usually pick a good spot and double, or more than double, down. I have only had it happen twice, once with NCEN, and once with UTSI. Both times it was a huge over-reaction, and I made a ton more than if I had just held the initial buy and waited for my 15%. The 15% eventually came, but it also came along with a 45% gain on my NCEN double, and I am near 100% on my UTSI double and holding for more like 400% on that one.
I think the over-reaction with PLMO was caused mainly by insiders selling one day before earnings, and then the analyst downgrades afterwards. Note that a few analysts reit their buy on PLMO, one actually increasing estimates for 2006. My guess on this one is it will base here at around 24, then sit for a bit and move back up slowly. If I were holding I would expect to have to wait at least 6 months to score the original 15%, but I would carry along about a 45% double-down.
Good luck with it!
-DaveComment
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Dave,
PLMO has advanced over ten points on four occasions in less than a thirty day period this year. It probably is an excellent long , but hard for me to think of it in that way now. They produce an almost unique state of the art cutting edge technological product with few competitors. They won't just fade away.
billyjoeComment
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