Portfolio of the Week

Long KNOL

Second choice: VSAT

KNOL has a good-looking chart setup for this week.

Steels, certain TV stations, many kinds of low-P/E stocks (even grocers KR, SVU) are strong right now.

Many others are looking good (including several "high resistance ceiling" and post-ATH breakout candidates to watch going forward) such as:

ADS, ANGN
BLL
CHAP / AKS / MT (steel)
CIT, COLM, CSG
DFC
GCOM
HINT
KOG
MDP
NIHD
NXST / HTV / SBGI / TVL / GTN
(TV stations have become targets of private equity; see recent Barron's article,
http://www.smartmoney.com/barrons/in...0117&afl=yahoo )
ONNN
PRGX (turnaround)
ROCM
SPIL, SWK, SXC
TDG, TPP, TPX, TWTC
VPRT
WFR

[let-it-ride]

Icoc

IIC: Welcome...Mind telling us why you like it?

I bot it in May 5x avg. 6.01...held it all the way down...Sold about 30% at 7.06, 20% at 6.15 and about 30% in the 5.70's...Still have about 20% of the original buys...thx...Doug(IIC)

PS: Congrats River, Mimo, and Stenz...I tried a last minute push do or die...Guess I died

Hi IIC,

First I need to let you know that I’m pretty much a position trader. I buy stocks anywhere from 2 to 6 weeks before an earnings announcement. I trade based on a lot of factors and it would take me awhile to list out all of them so I tell you why I like ICOC for a position trade.

1. ICOC fundamentals. 22% revenue growth 4th quarter YOY. Operating income up 120% YOY. ICOC repurchased 85% of preferred stock and will retire it. Bayshore compounding plant went online mid-September 06. Bottom line: decent fundamentals.
2. So why is ICOC’s price dropping? Decreasing demand, decreasing resin pricing and their business is cyclical.
3. Why am I buying now for a position trade? Earnings announcement is 9 days away. ICOC has good fundamentals. Traders may think ICOC is oversold “short-term”.
4. Technicals: Bullish morning star last three days and short-term MACD is bullish. All the other indicators I look at are “very” bearish.
5. Risks to ICOC this coming week. POL’s (resin company) earnings announcement on Weds Jan 31st. POL announced in December that this quarter will be weak. POL has been moving up over the past 4 days.
6. I have found that stocks usually run up into earnings. So based on this trend I trade stocks with decent fundamentals that may be in a slump due to cyclical factors, delayed orders, commodity pricing, loss of investor interest in between earnings announcements, market makers, etc. I also position trade stocks that are in favor and going up.
7. I have a partial position in ICOC. If POL’s announcement is no worse then expected and POL’s share price stays flat or rises then I will move to a full position on ICOC this Weds. If POL’s announcement is worse than expected then I will hold the ICOC I have and sell before ICOC earnings on Feb 8th.
8. What about ICOC long-term? When resin demand picks up and resin pricing rises then ICOC will be a buy and hold. I’m not sure if we are at that point yet. If you are a buy and hold long-term trader than I would wait for a definite cyclical turnaround. You may miss the initial run up but there would be time to get in for a long-term hold.
9. I’m always working 4 to 8 position trades so if I make the wrong call on a few then I usually come out ok. Traders and/or investors seem to run up a stock going into earnings. I think they are looking for or hoping for that blowout quarter. I position trade based on this trend (and other factors mentioned) and as long as people out there think this is the quarter that gets the company back on track or this is the quarter that beats earnings again then they will run up the price most of the time.
10. A couple of my previous position trades: SMTS: I bought in late November and sold a few weeks before earnings. A few hopeful people on the SMTS message board before the earnings announcement, ouch. TWLL: This one had a lockup expiration in December and most lockup expirations drive down stock prices. I was buying TWLL around lockup expiration. Good fundamental stocks usually bounce back after lockup expiration. TWLL finally had a big bounce on January 11th and I sold out. You will notice I’m not looking at big percentage gains or the so called home run here. I’m just looking to keep growing my portfolio over time.
11. So will see what ICOC does over the next 7 to 8 days. It has been in a constant downtrend since last quarter and if it is going to run it will be over the next week. POL will set the tone for ICOC this week. POL makes this short-term ICOC position trade a bit risky.

[Rob]

GOOG Is My Pick

I'd love to to take IMCL again ... I really, really would. But I will not, 'cause Google reports this week, and I've gotta go with Google.

GOOG long!

I will take IMOS long again - for the same reasons as last week.

regards ... stenz

[spikefader]

NEXC long for me, thanks peanuts! Good luck all.

[Peter Hansen]

OFC LONG For ME

OFC LONG Thanx!

[skiracer]

Geez...I thought you liked it since it has been in the IIC 100 Top 10 since November 20th

Sorry, but I wouldn't know. I never look at the IIC 100 thread.

[IIC]

Speaking of the IIC 100...Where's Alice???...She had CHINA pegged back in November...It has been a top the IIC 100 almost every week this year...Had me fooled back in November...Great Call Alice

[IIC]

I like AOB this week. Here's why. I also own it.

Geez...I thought you liked it since it has been in the IIC 100 Top 10 since November 20th

[Websman]

RWC - long

[skiracer]

I like AOB this week. Here's why. I also own it.

[IIC]

Let's look for MOT to keep falling off a cliff...I'll take MOT short at the open...thx...IIC

[skiracer]

Here's what I like about FORG this week. Lye's got it and I think it makes it's move this week. Any feedback on my take is welcome please. I own a nice chunk but this looks like a nice area to buy it. After looking at the chart a bit more there is another approach to the wave count that could hold water. On the weekly you could start the 1st wave at the .41 level and count from there. That would give a 5th wave up which is normally as strong as the 3rd wave and sometimes stronger. Either way, whether it be a 3rd or 5th wave it looks good here.

[JohnHenry]

Ca$h

Hi Peanuts

Please start me out with CA$H....Thanks

[sirtuck]

Potw

Sirtuck picks ABB long for next week, Congrat to riverbabe.