Portfolio of the Week

[Lyehopper]

Staying in cash doesn't prove anything to me as far as stock picking abilities are concerned.

WeLLLLLLL, Now I guess as far as ol' Lyehopper's "concerned".... it ain't all about YOU now is it!?

[Gatorman]

Pick

Will take ONNN long.

[skiracer]

Decided to stay with FORG - long.

[Websman]

HEB - long

Last week, I picked SCLD because they were reporting mid-week. SCLD is a turnaround play that I have been following for years. About six months ago, new top execs were put in place, and they disclosed their plan to return to profitability and growth. Over the last 3 months or so, new contracts were announced, and the plan seemed to be on track. The report last week had the potential to again confirm that the plan was on track. This turned out to be the case - while revenues were down, gross margins were up, so losses shrank. The chart has showed renewed buying interest since bottoming out.

This week I am picking EXP. They report on 2/1, so this pick could be premature. This is a valuation position in my portfolio - the PEG is about 0.3. Last year at this time, it gapped up from 40 to 50 and ran to almost 75. Beaten back down due to housing sector crash, but their business is partly residential and partly infrastructure (concrete for roads & bridges) construction. Picking for this week due to technicals - the MACD turned positive, and the 50 day crossed above the 200 day. One of their competitors, TXI, is approaching a new high breakout and may actually be a better pick for a 1 week gain, but I like EXP's valuation better and own it in real life. More of a "POTM" than a "POTW", I particularly like the 3 year weekly chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=exp,uu[h,a]waolyiay[df][pc10!c50!f][vc60][ila12,26,9!lp14,3,3]

regards ... stenz, back safely from a fun ski trip!

[skiracer]

Peanuts,
Take me out of FORG - I'm going in another direction.

[peanuts]

Hey stenzrob

It seems that the folks want a speech. How did you come to pick SCLD for the POTW contest? Tell us when you get back from skiing.

[mimo_100]

Peanuts wrote:
The winner of the yearly contest can teach us alot about a great way to grow our own portfolios.


Not if the participant doesn't explain how he/she found the stock as a candidate and then picked the stock. I don't think that happened in the case of every participant in last year's (IIC's, that is, Doug's) Pick of the Year contest. However, doing so SHOULD be a prerequisite of joining such a contest. Otherwise, how do the rest not believe that the winner just got lucky, which is quite possible even in the stock market.

I've been advocating this for a long time, especially in the POTW contest. If the purpose of this forum is LEARNING, then it is necessary to reveal how a person came up with the winner. Don't we all learn from someone who teaches us the path to success?

Peanuts wrote:
The winner of the yearly contest can teach us alot about a great way to grow our own portfolios.


Not if the participant doesn't explain how he/she found the stock as a candidate and then picked the stock. I don't think that happened in the case of every participant in last year's (IIC's, that is, Doug's) Pick of the Year contest. However, doing so SHOULD be a prerequisite of joining such a contest. Otherwise, how do the rest not believe that the winner just got lucky, which is quite possible even in the stock market.

[skiracer]

[quote=peanuts;76509]gosh, ski, the last thing that I wanted to do was to be condescending towards you. The quotation above seems to paint me in a bad light.

I was merely stating that if you think that you can do better than Lyehopper (which your comments towards him suggested that his manner of investing was not the same as yours), then prove it at the end of the year.

I still believe that all of our intentions in the stock market are to make money. Each and every one of us go about it differently. The winner of the yearly contest can teach us alot about a great way to grow our own portfolios. I hope that it is you, skiracer, so you may teach us all how you did it.

The conversation, on my part, was heading nowhere but enlightenment. I have, within the last few years, realized the failures of communication on my part. I now try to avoid being a jerk to people at all costs (unless they are deserving). But I guess it is more in the delivery of the message, not the content, which makes one perceive a message offered to them as nice or not nice. I am assuming that I failed to deliver my message to you, as you have decided that I am trying to patronize you. I am not![/quote

Sorry I brought it up in the first place Peanuts. Your doing a great job with the POTW and I now see that it is morphing into something other than a stock picking contest which is ok with me. I never insinuated that I was better at any of this than anyone else. Only that staying in CA$H for the entire week or several days per week doesn't place that player within the same parameters of risk as staying in a stock selection for the entire week. But it is no big deal and sorry if I made you look or feel condescending or in a bad light because I don't see you that way. My feelings are that it takes alot more to pick a stock or two per week that provide a positive gain vs staying in CA$H regardless of the player doing it.

[Peter Hansen]

Stp Long

STP LONG For Me!

[peanuts]

uh-oh

Spare me the patronizing Peanuts. I just explained my feelings on it and can see where it is headed.

gosh, ski, the last thing that I wanted to do was to be condescending towards you. The quotation above seems to paint me in a bad light.

I was merely stating that if you think that you can do better than Lyehopper (which your comments towards him suggested that his manner of investing was not the same as yours), then prove it at the end of the year.

I still believe that all of our intentions in the stock market are to make money. Each and every one of us go about it differently. The winner of the yearly contest can teach us alot about a great way to grow our own portfolios. I hope that it is you, skiracer, so you may teach us all how you did it.

The conversation, on my part, was heading nowhere but enlightenment. I have, within the last few years, realized the failures of communication on my part. I now try to avoid being a jerk to people at all costs (unless they are deserving). But I guess it is more in the delivery of the message, not the content, which makes one perceive a message offered to them as nice or not nice. I am assuming that I failed to deliver my message to you, as you have decided that I am trying to patronize you. I am not!

[skiracer]

Please ski, add to the 'aspects' of this contest by consistently picking winning stocks week after week. Show us how you beat the tar out of Lyehopper's score at the end of the year.

Try it before you knock it. You're acting like you know everything

Spare me the patronizing Peanuts. I just explained my feelings on it and can see where it is headed.

[peanuts]

No, not in my opinion it won't. In my opinion it is taking away from the stock picking aspects of the contest...

Please ski, add to the 'aspects' of this contest by consistently picking winning stocks week after week. Show us how you beat the tar out of Lyehopper's score at the end of the year.

Try it before you knock it. You're acting like you know everything

[skiracer]

Sure it does Ski!.... It says that you stayed in ca$h that week to avoid a loss in an undecided market.... It also shows that a player ACTUALLY took the time and showed enough interest in the POTW to post his (deliberate) ca$h pick. It also shows the personality of various players and their investment styles.

Peanuts' contest is not just a weekly deal. He has assigned a ca$h value in our imaginary "account" thus making the contest more realistic. With this in mind I'm (personally) striving for the most ca$h in my POTW account by year end 2007..... and I don't care about placing in the weekly standings.... Look, If my account is larger than yours by December 31, 2007?.... That'll sure say something about my freakin' "prowNess" now won't it?.... LOL!!!!

No, not in my opinion it won't. In my opinion it is taking away from the stock picking aspects of the contest. It will show that you or anyone else that decides to stay in CA$H for as long a period of time as they wish in good or bad markets, up or down trends, rangebound markets, will be in a safe haven and not have to do any serious stock picking to stay above the +- line while others that make the choice to try to make the best pick they can in any type of markets are either foolish or disillusioned about the game.
In my opinion it is going to end up diluting the concept of the game, which was to make the best stock picks you could under whatever circumstances presented themselves that week, and as the weeks go by more players will ask themselves why not stay in cash for as long as they can before making a pick because a larger number of others are doing that. Staying in cash doesn't prove anything to me as far as stock picking abilities are concerned. But it's no big deal and the choice is up to the individual as to what and how they want to play it. It would certainly be true that someone's account might have a larger balance at the end of the year than anothers if they stayed safely in CA$H for a good deal of the time but to me the truer evaluation of one's stock picking abilities is picking winners in good, bad, or indifferent markets. What appears to be happening is a changing in the concept of the contest and that the safest and easiest way to come out on top is to stay out of picking stocks.
Not to single out Peanuts but his is a good example. Last week he made two daytrades which encompassed a few hours of holding time. Then stayed in CA$H for Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. If he had won the contest would he have truly been the best stockpicker that week while everyone else stayed in stocks all week except for those that stayed in CA$H all week.I guess the concept of the game has subtly changed to something other than picking winning stocks under any circumstances.