Portfolio of the Week

[dmk112]

Lye, I read an excellent book recently called "Adaptive analysis" by Aussie, Nick Radge. One thing he mentions is that being right is not the be all and end all of trading. Its the dollars lost and gained that makes things work. If you win less often but have larger wins then losses then it may well be better. Extremely simple, and probably patronising to someone whos been trading for so long, but works in theory. Bottom line is that it pays to be right in the system as a whole rather than being right on each individual trade. Plenty of reviews down under.

Welcome to the POTW, Milkman!

[sowersnc]

Sell UNH and buy SEB. I think the pig has found some support, but we shall see.

[skiracer]

Welcome to the POTW, Milkman!

Milkman, It's ok to be wrong 6/7 times out of 10 if you cut the losses off at a mimimun by setting your stops correctly an always honoring them. Then the thing to do is as your gains in the other 3/4 winning positions increase bring your stops up to points where they will protect your gains as you let the winners run up. If you won't or can't bring yourself to do this it going to be very hard to have a winning record. It sounds simple yet very few short term traders have the ability or control to stick to this type of discipline. This type of discipline will insure that you'll have smaller dollar losses and bigger dollar gains. The difference in letting a few losers run down past a nominal % or amount will negate very quickly any winners that you let run up to their potential and then it won't make a difference because it will insure that you're on the losing end % wise.

[Lyehopper]

Lye, I read an excellent book recently called "Adaptive analysis" by Aussie, Nick Radge. One thing he mentions is that being right is not the be all and end all of trading. Its the dollars lost and gained that makes things work. If you win less often but have larger wins then losses then it may well be better. Extremely simple, and probably patronising to someone whos been trading for so long, but works in theory. Bottom line is that it pays to be right in the system as a whole rather than being right on each individual trade. Plenty of reviews down under.

Good On Milkman!... Welcome mate! Hey fellas this Aussie bloke is a good ol dirt farmer too. Says Aussie soil is good for GoJi's.... already offered Webs and his M-60 a job to protect the crop from them pesky "Roos" and Koala's..... Says he's gonna compete with our North American GoJi operation fellas, he's got 1,400 acres earmarked too. hehehehe..... We'll shall see Milkman.... we'll shall see!!!!

Hey dude.... Throw us a pick for next week. Now we've got a dame in the game.... why not a bloody Aussie?!...lol

[spikefader]

...If you win less often but have larger wins then losses then it may well be better.....

No doubt about it! And all you have to do to embrace the concept is to overcome the embarrassment of telling and showing people that you only have 2 winners out of 10. Let's face it, we like it to be 10 out of 10, and would be satisfied with 8 out of 10. But 2!! Lord, how embarrassing! hehe But end of the day, your 8 stop outs were for 1% each time, and your 2 winners earn you 40% each then who's the genius then? It's all a matter of how you look at it. I'll put up with the embarrassment of a low strike rate if my r/r and bottom line % is healthy.

[spikefader]

Sell UNH and buy SEB. I think the pig has found some support, but we shall see.

We shall, and I just thought I'd post my uninvited opinion on your choice there. Hope that's cool.

I'd definately be sticking with UNH over SEB. UNH gap down on volume and now channel turn down is bearish. SEB might look like double bottom type support, but SEB's weekly is double top and the risk ain't worth it imo. UNH is on a weekly hunt for a boom I think.

But good luck anyway! Ha! The hide of me; criticizing one of the best POTW players when I can't even stay green! lol forgive me!

[sowersnc]

We shall, and I just thought I'd post my uninvited opinion on your choice there. Hope that's cool.

I'd definately be sticking with UNH over SEB. UNH gap down on volume and now channel turn down is bearish. SEB might look like double bottom type support, but SEB's weekly is double top and the risk ain't worth it imo. UNH is on a weekly hunt for a boom I think.

But good luck anyway! Ha! The hide of me; criticizing one of the best POTW players when I can't even stay green! lol forgive me!

Any and all comments/criticizm is welcome on my posts. I usually try to stay safe with my picks and shoot for 5%. I just didn't feel UNH had enough left this week to get me to 5%. It has been good to me with real money and I feel it is a great large cap stock. For my second pick I had it down to MO, FLEX, EMC and SEB. We shall see if SEB works out for me again. But I would agree UNH is much less likely to make me cry.


Out of those four(MO,FLEX,EMC and SEB) I chose poorly... 3 did ok today and one got hammered.

[Milk Man]

Just to clarify- do we pick from Mr Markets data dump or is it the whole market? And also, when does he take a data dump? Once a month I presume from looking at past info. What parameters make up the data dump; I read his website so im assuming its some degree of the quantatative analysis model.

Ill get me some free data and have a crack at POTW. Maybe ill get some pay for stuff if theres enough in it for me. Might do some low risk retracement setups. Oh and are stops allowed to be called before-hand?

[Websman]

And also, when does he take a data dump? Once a month I presume from looking at past info.

Hopefully more than that... lol

[Websman]

Just to clarify- do we pick from Mr Markets data dump or is it the whole market? And also, when does he take a data dump? Once a month I presume from looking at past info. What parameters make up the data dump; I read his website so im assuming its some degree of the quantatative analysis model.

Ill get me some free data and have a crack at POTW. Maybe ill get some pay for stuff if theres enough in it for me. Might do some low risk retracement setups. Oh and are stops allowed to be called before-hand?

OK, now on this serious side...

You can pick any stock as long as it has decent volume. You can only short it if there are actual shares available to short. And some other little rules that I can't remember. Maybe Lye will elaborate.

[Lyehopper]

Just to clarify- do we pick from Mr Markets data dump or is it the whole market? And also, when does he take a data dump? Once a month I presume from looking at past info. What parameters make up the data dump; I read his website so im assuming its some degree of the quantatative analysis model.

Ill get me some free data and have a crack at POTW. Maybe ill get some pay for stuff if theres enough in it for me. Might do some low risk retracement setups. Oh and are stops allowed to be called before-hand?

Plenty of free stock sites to look at over here dude. Some of the guys can private message you and give you some direction, what about it fellas give the Milkman some tips? here one that's good. http://finance.yahoo.com/

You are not limited to picking from Ernie's dumps, but it's a good place to look.... You can play any stock on the NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ but NO bb stocks allowed. It would be good if there was a decent volume average on the stock you pick.... say 70-100k shares minimum average. No limits orders or stops allowed. You need to stay up all night and watch your US stocks so you'll know when to trade. What is the time difference there anyway?

Hey Milkman look back to post # 2714 on this thread and the rules are posted.

~Lye

[sisterwin2]

you forgot the rule about a certain sailor girl and her pictures......this only pertains to me milkman so no worry...


Looks like I might have to dig up my pic portfolio and see what I can come up with.... I do have a question... does it have to be me?

[Lyehopper]

you forgot the rule about a certain sailor girl and her pictures......this only pertains to me milkman so no worry...


Looks like I might have to dig up my pic portfolio and see what I can come up with.... I do have a question... does it have to be me?

Well since IIC's Avatar is really him and webs is really him, Ski and BillyJoe show themselves in action. NB-Baby & Garry611 posted their baby pics.... Runner has shown us what he looks like and my profile shows me in real life and $$MM$$ only posts real pics of himself..... I'd say yes we need real Dena pics. But any "good" additional pics are always welcomed too.

[Websman]

Well since IIC's Avatar is really him and webs is really him, Ski and BillyJoe show themselves in action. NB-Baby & Garry611 posted their baby pics.... Runner has shown us what he looks like and my profile shows me in real life and $$MM$$ only posts real pics of himself..... I'd say yes we need real Dena pics. But any "good" additional pics are always welcomed too.

I would post my real pic, but I look more like Mr Market than I do Spock.

[Lyehopper]

Wednesday's Scorecard....

Well fellas? Are we gonna get that BULL back soon?.... Don't know for sure. Please be cautious.... but get your shopping list ready for any bargan pullbacks. Run your plays by the fellas here, they'll give you a solid opinion or two and maybe a new perspective. Great forum we've got ain't it? Thanks to all you guys for all the help you've given me.



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