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  • New-born baby
    Senior Member
    • Apr 2004
    • 6095

    Originally posted by ninner View Post
    that its still on trend however, picture is worth a thousand words....the stochastics i believe are heading to the oversold area and it hasnt been there since its run(weekly)....and with proof that its growth is slowing it may get a bounce tomorrow im betting that it will be a weak one.

    cheers
    Ninner,
    It may be like MFLX. That dog just continued to slice through support as if it wasn't even there. Or it may bounce. Last week for POTW I shorted a dog and it turned arounded and bit me. But a huge fall like this, from $45 to $30, well, it ought not to bounce much at all. We will know much more tomorrow: if HANS cannot hold $30, that goose is completely cooked. She'll be below trend, below the 200 day, the 200 week, she'll be solidly in bear territory.

    The PnF chart called this one on 3 August--last Thursday.
    pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

    Comment

    • skiracer
      Senior Member
      • Dec 2004
      • 6314

      Originally posted by ninner View Post
      i have been waiting for it to break as well buddy....i have made money long the past 2 years with hans.....was going to go short earlier, however the stock usually does well when earnings are announced so i thought i would hold off but i couldnt hold off today when it fell....i also see 12-15 as well just based on pe contraction and that is what all these high fliers are going through.....im just wondering what will happan tomorrow after the feds decision is made...to me it shouldnt matter inflation is here regardless and will probably get worse


      thanks

      Ninner
      Last edited by Karel; 08-15-2006, 10:12 AM. Reason: Thumbnailed image over 700px wide; repaired quote
      THE SKIRACER'S EDGE: MAKE THE EDGE IN YOUR FAVOR

      Comment

      • New-born baby
        Senior Member
        • Apr 2004
        • 6095

        Ski

        Hi, Ski;
        How do I arrive at $15? Dow Theory says that the initial bear pole is only one half of the complete fall. Today she fell from $45-30=$15 bear pole. So $15 X 2= $30 from $45 = $15 target.
        pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

        Comment

        • ninner
          Senior Member
          • Dec 2004
          • 524

          mine is purely based on stock market theory

          based on the fact that inflation is here and i believe will only get worse and historically speaking when inflation is rising pe's tend to contract based on the y curve effect. No matter what u hear...Pe are historically high by regular standards excluding that anamoly of the tech boom..which was unusally high. Now, how i get my number well i think its safe to say HANS is still growing well however, i think everyone can agree its slowing...with stocks priced to perfection that kills them. This is where it my number could be debated. i think a company with slowing growth pe could contract in half from where it is....so in a range of 20-24 or so which would give u a target price based on 2005 earning of around 12-15. A good book to read on stock market theory is Unexpected returns....understanding secular market cycles by Ed easterling..its a very dry read but some good info in there.

          Comment

          • ninner
            Senior Member
            • Dec 2004
            • 524

            Also, there is a theory thaat

            Gaps need to filled and are filled in time........now your chart doesnt show it skiracer, however, there is a big gap between 14-17 which was never filled...that gap imo has to be filled and with those excessive splits marking a top together with slowing growth that is another validation of my target. That is what i have convinced myself anyways LOL....however like always i wont fight the trend and if it shows strength tomorrow i will cover.


            cheers

            Comment

            • New-born baby
              Senior Member
              • Apr 2004
              • 6095

              Ski

              Ski,
              The only thing that bothers me about that bear pole is that it is really the first time HANS has lost momo on the weekly. Sometimes when that happens the stock recovers, makes a head, and then finally winds up making a head and shoulders pattern. On the other hand, HANS falling $15 in one day, well, that's a significant loss of momo, imho. And to lose $15 on 46 million shares traded, that shows that the pressure was pretty strong. Like I said, we should know more today. The bounce needs to be $5-$10 to convince me that it will make a head and shoulders on the weekly (the daily already shows a head, left shoulder, and an aborted right shoulder).

              Last time I had checked HANS they had no option chain. But they have one now. I wouldn't be afraid to trade this one.
              pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

              Comment

              • New-born baby
                Senior Member
                • Apr 2004
                • 6095

                Amln

                AMLN looking like she's going to drop down to $39 minus here soon. On the chart below, you'll note first the previous chart formation that called for a drop, the target, and it's successful completion of that target. AMLN recovered and has now again formed another bear pattern with the same $39 target. I think she breaks the neck and heads for home, myself. At least I am going to play AMLN short.

                Here's the daily:
                pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

                Comment

                • New-born baby
                  Senior Member
                  • Apr 2004
                  • 6095

                  Why I Think Stld Digs A Hole

                  STLD is looking short to me. Yes, she needs to break the neck at $54. Yes, BEARnard is speaking today. Yes, STLD could fall and break the neck easily. Yes, Ninner and Jack Haddad are probably spot on when they say any bounce is going to be short lived. So here's my chart . . . yes, it is a weekly chart

                  pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

                  Comment

                  • New-born baby
                    Senior Member
                    • Apr 2004
                    • 6095

                    Another look at HANS

                    I am going to be very interested in how HANS plays out in the days to come. Here's another chart at HANS weekly, and how HANS may fall into the $14s. It will take awhile, I think. Hey, this stock had the momo to the max. It just powered-out all at once. A couple of sputters and she was gone. Reminds me of a V-2 rocket. Sputters a couple of times and down she goes We shall see if HANS is completely out of gas just yet.

                    pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

                    Comment

                    • New-born baby
                      Senior Member
                      • Apr 2004
                      • 6095

                      Ski

                      Something about HANS profits that you might consider: yes, they missed by $.01. But let me tell you what is happening in the grocery stores right now: pop and chip sales are way off. And I mean "way off." To me that tells me that the high gas prices have finally cut into discretionary spending, and pop and chips are discretionary spending. Those rats that jumped overboard yesterday could see the water coming into the ship. They aren't looking this quarter; they are looking the next two-three quarters. Time will tell. And hey, if you play it long now, there's lots of options to make it safe.
                      pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

                      Comment

                      • spikefader
                        Senior Member
                        • Apr 2004
                        • 7175

                        Originally posted by New-born baby View Post
                        I am going to be very interested in how HANS plays out in the days to come. .... Hey, this stock had the momo to the max. It just powered-out all at once. A couple of sputters and she was gone. Reminds me of a V-2 rocket. Sputters a couple of times and down she goes We shall see if HANS is completely out of gas just yet.


                        HANS was just another bubble that burst. Anyone taking this long should remember this rule: Never EVER underestimate a gap down on volume.

                        I think yesterday was a major blow technically. HANS may test band support at 22.70 in a V-2 jiffy. HANS is a no brainer short in my opinion.

                        At worst it's a pretty good bull:bear technical play with EFA long and HANS short. Big fat island reversal in this chart:


                        Have a great one folks. I'll read all about it later

                        Comment

                        • New-born baby
                          Senior Member
                          • Apr 2004
                          • 6095

                          More blood in the streets: PEIX

                          PEIX lost the momo, and yesterday suffered another loss of support. This one is ready to stumble right now. Looking for $7, unless Bill Gates can hold up the stock price all by himself.


                          pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

                          Comment

                          • peanuts
                            Senior Member
                            • Feb 2006
                            • 3365

                            Originally posted by New-born baby View Post
                            Something about HANS profits that you might consider: yes, they missed by $.01. But let me tell you what is happening in the grocery stores right now: pop and chip sales are way off. And I mean "way off." To me that tells me that the high gas prices have finally cut into discretionary spending, and pop and chips are discretionary spending. Those rats that jumped overboard yesterday could see the water coming into the ship. They aren't looking this quarter; they are looking the next two-three quarters. Time will tell. And hey, if you play it long now, there's lots of options to make it safe.
                            "pop" ??? Where are you from, NBB? I thought that there are only a few regions that say "pop" when speaking of soda. Pittsburgh is one of them.
                            Hide not your talents.
                            They for use were made.
                            What's a sundial in the shade?

                            - Benjamin Franklin

                            Comment


                            • How do you arrive at $7?

                              Comment

                              • New-born baby
                                Senior Member
                                • Apr 2004
                                • 6095

                                Originally posted by DSteckler View Post
                                How do you arrive at $7?
                                PnF says that's where the support is

                                I'd be interested to hear your viewpoint.
                                pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

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