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  • Here are some industry groups I will be looking at next week.

    Possible Shorts
    Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 12 stocks
    Independent Oil & Gas 6 stocks
    Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration 4 stocks

    NB, I'll post the tic's later this weekend

    Comment

    • New-born baby
      Senior Member
      • Apr 2004
      • 6095

      Runner's excellent scans

      Runner,
      Excellent work! I love it. I love it!

      I am not an Elliott Waver; I know you and Spike (and others) have the skill. What does Elliott say about the oil bottom?
      pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

      Comment


      • NB here are a few I'll be looking at next week
        Energy:
        WHQ MRO OII OIS LUFK PBR GRP ALJ XTO PTEN CAM DRQ EAC UPL CLB FTI CRK UCO WLL EPEX DNR BJS

        Metals & Mining:
        SID ACI OS MDG CNX

        Comment

        • New-born baby
          Senior Member
          • Apr 2004
          • 6095

          Originally posted by Runner View Post
          NB here are a few I'll be looking at next week
          Energy:
          WHQ MRO OII OIS LUFK PBR GRP ALJ XTO PTEN CAM DRQ EAC UPL CLB FTI CRK UCO WLL EPEX DNR BJS

          Metals & Mining:
          SID ACI OS MDG CNX
          Thanks for posting, Runner. Now post any setups you see. I'll look this list over; I've been looking at BTU (sister to ACI) also.
          pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

          Comment

          • spikefader
            Senior Member
            • Apr 2004
            • 7175

            Originally posted by New-born baby View Post
            Runner,
            Excellent work! I love it. I love it!

            I am not an Elliott Waver; I know you and Spike (and others) have the skill. What does Elliott say about the oil bottom?
            You'll find my Sept 28 fuzzy count for the QM light crude miNY futures contract at: http://www.technicaltrades.net/2006/09/28/oil-5/
            It has since done the 'b' down as expected. The upcoming 'c' will be the pivotal point.

            Comment

            • billyjoe
              Senior Member
              • Nov 2003
              • 9014

              New-born,
              Got to keep this thread on page #1. Am thinking about purchasing BLUD or ANN. Does either one stand out chartwise as being bullish?Thanks

              ------------billyjoe

              Comment

              • New-born baby
                Senior Member
                • Apr 2004
                • 6095

                Originally posted by billyjoe View Post
                New-born,
                Got to keep this thread on page #1. Am thinking about purchasing BLUD or ANN. Does either one stand out chartwise as being bullish?Thanks

                ------------billyjoe
                BillyJoe,
                Short AMLN under $42.78--she's awful weak. Support is $42.79, and right now trading at $42.82 or so.

                ANN: nice day today. Hmmm. Double top. You see on Sept 20 it made a double top and failed to breakout higher. So I think you don't want Ann Taylor for your girlfriend unless she can bust up through the $44.33 marker. Right now the price is $42.60, and you've got decent support at $41.86 and $42.33. There is some resistance at $44.06. If you entered here you need to understand that $41.86 is a convenient exit if she moves lower, and $44.06 is a resistance as she moves higher. And a really strong bull move needs to bust $44.33 on volume. If that happens, Ann would really be looking strack--a $50 baby I like Ann better than BLUD, but BLUD is okay, too.

                pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

                Comment

                • New-born baby
                  Senior Member
                  • Apr 2004
                  • 6095

                  Blud

                  Originally posted by billyjoe View Post
                  New-born,
                  Got to keep this thread on page #1. Am thinking about purchasing BLUD or ANN. Does either one stand out chartwise as being bullish?Thanks

                  ------------billyjoe
                  BLUD has a sort of a weekly cup, with volume dry up on the handle. The daily chart says you don't want to drop below $21.80 or else BLUD could blungeon you down to $20.50.
                  pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

                  Comment

                  • Gwhiz
                    Senior Member
                    • May 2006
                    • 225

                    If I could ask your advice New Born, what does the TA for sons look like, and gld.
                    Thank you

                    Comment


                    • NB, here is an interesting article on position sizing. It is long but I think it drives home a good point.

                      Comment

                      • New-born baby
                        Senior Member
                        • Apr 2004
                        • 6095

                        SONS and GLD

                        Originally posted by Gwhiz View Post
                        If I could ask your advice New Born, what does the TA for sons look like, and gld.
                        Thank you
                        Gwhiz:
                        Let's see: SONS was once a $95 stock. Dot.com bust brought it down. The recent upswing in price has been met with "topping tails" i.e., bagholders jumping overboard, rejoicing that they got their money back. You didn't tell me whether or not you own it, so I will assume that you do not. SONS has a major support at $4.95. Look to enter there and put a stop around $4.90. Targets are (depending upon your style of trading) 1. $5.15 for a one or two day swing trade, 2. $5.50-$5.75 for a week long (+/-) hold, and 3. $7-$9.25 if SONS can bust the $6 marker on volume. Not going to happen the first time she touches it, though; too much overhead resistance. Anyway, that gives you a r/r of 4:1 for target one; target two is a r/r of 11:1 (16:1); target three is too good to calculate.

                        IF you do own SONS, I wouldn't hold it below $4.50. I don't know your entry price and therefore cannot knowledgeably advise you.


                        GLD:I am bearish on this one. Gold is directly related to the price of oil and/or the value of the dollar. The dollar is strengthening; oil is declining; therefore I see gold falling. The chart says it GLD will fall to $44 or $42 or even lower. Descending triangle is bearish and a much better short than a long. Too bad GLD doesn't have an option chain, because I'd be selling calls and buying puts. If you own this one, the broken neck comes at $56.66, and you'll be plenty sorry if you hold below that level. In short, get out


                        Best to ya. Thanks for asking!
                        Last edited by New-born baby; 10-03-2006, 12:19 PM.
                        pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

                        Comment

                        • New-born baby
                          Senior Member
                          • Apr 2004
                          • 6095

                          Originally posted by Runner View Post
                          NB, here is an interesting article on position sizing. It is long but I think it drives home a good point.
                          http://www.turtletrader.com/position_sizing.pdf
                          I urge all my readers to take the time to read this paper Runner has submitted. If you just read the first page you'll see this quote:
                          "Traders being
                          able to gain money over the long run were taking smaller positions
                          than losing and bankrupt traders were (p < .0001)." And this quote: "By receiving a
                          theoretical education, without any practical training, the risk for a
                          trader of going bankrupt when trading simulated stocks was
                          decreased to a tenth."

                          I just read about a guy who said he blew out a $150,000 account in two days on one trade. Lost all but $15,000 (that's a 90% loss!!).

                          Reason #1 that people lose money in the market: overconfidence. Evidence of overconfidence: overtrading.

                          Or how about this quote:
                          "However, there is evidence of
                          the importance of how assets are allocated. Asset allocation is even
                          more important than stock selection or timing. Brinson, Singer, and
                          Beebower (1991) found asset allocation policy to be of primary
                          importance, accounting for 91.5% of the differential return of the
                          pension funds."
                          Last edited by New-born baby; 10-02-2006, 11:12 PM.
                          pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

                          Comment

                          • billyjoe
                            Senior Member
                            • Nov 2003
                            • 9014

                            I'm proud to say that since I've been a member my portfolio has become diversified , my position sizing is greatly improved , and my chances of being wiped out financially are almost nil. Thanks to Runner and others who keep repeating advice it's finally sunk in. Maybe I'm a slow learner and have to be told again and again before taking the hint. No more big losses here.

                            -----------------billyjoe

                            Comment

                            • peanuts
                              Senior Member
                              • Feb 2006
                              • 3365

                              Originally posted by billyjoe View Post
                              I'm proud to say that since I've been a member my portfolio has become diversified , my position sizing is greatly improved , and my chances of being wiped out financially are almost nil. Thanks to Runner and others who keep repeating advice it's finally sunk in. Maybe I'm a slow learner and have to be told again and again before taking the hint. No more big losses here.

                              -----------------billyjoe
                              I saw a quote once, and I can't remember where, nor the exact wording of the phrase, but it went something like this: "The less you risk, the more you stand to lose when your analysis is right"
                              Hide not your talents.
                              They for use were made.
                              What's a sundial in the shade?

                              - Benjamin Franklin

                              Comment

                              • New-born baby
                                Senior Member
                                • Apr 2004
                                • 6095

                                Originally posted by peanuts View Post
                                I saw a quote once, and I can't remember where, nor the exact wording of the phrase, but it went something like this: "The less you risk, the more you stand to lose when your analysis is right"
                                Yes, Peanuts. I respect your opinion. But you also have more to lose when your analysis is wrong. The scientific evidence, if you read Runner's posted article, is that position sizing is the 91.5% of the difference between the big winning funds and the losing funds. Much more effective than correct analysis. You are young yet. Have you ever lost $135,000 in a trade yet?
                                Well, I haven't either But I have lost a lot more than I should have because I was too dumb to use stops.
                                Last edited by New-born baby; 10-03-2006, 10:02 AM.
                                pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

                                Comment

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