Hot Pick Of The Day

[Runner]

NB, oil and gas stocks that hit scan are DK FTO WNR VLO SUN PETD HES GI RDS.A RDS.B

[Runner]

Last thing to remember is your commodity related stocks can trade independent of the boarder market Indices. So if a correction should hit the broader markets commodities may just try to perk up. However this current rally is pretty widespread unlike last rally that was driven by commodities.

[spikefader]

...XOM has awesome resistance at $70 at this time.

Posted on XOM the other day. It's bullish impulsive in a 3 within a bigger 3, monthly ascending breakout with test. She's goin' up it would seem.

[New-born baby]

Posted on XOM the other day. It's bullish impulsive in a 3 within a bigger 3, monthly ascending breakout with test. She's goin' up it would seem.

Spike,
Thanks for the XOM post. Love those charts and the EW that I am not good at.

I take it you do not like the R/R on XOM. You posted no setup, no targets, etc. Si, como no?
Thanks for everything!

[Lyehopper]

Does alcoholic content make the drink taste extra good? Your comment about Jesus' wine would imply that His wine tasted extra good because it had more alcohol in it. That is a point I would not be willing to concede. I am willing to admit that the guests did say it tasted better than what they had been drinking at the dinner

It's not the alcohol content in the wine that makes it taste good. The alcohol content in fine wine has always been about the same including that made 2000 years ago. Watering wine down with five parts water (or even one part water) does not make it display extrodinarily fine quality, it dilutes the flavor and makes it taste.... Well watered down!.... Jesus wine was of the finest quality, as one would expect from the Son of God....

[Lyehopper]

look at supply VS demand....

I think the point I'm trying to convey is that commodity stocks are now turning the corner. Not sure what to make of this or if this would have a negative impact on this nice bull run. Something I surely will keep an eye on. In fact I'm beginning to see several of these groups trying to set up long. We shall soon find out as the moment of truth is lurking around the corner. Just wanted to point this out as this could be areas that may see the bull...!!

Runner.... It's all about supply and demand with a commodity. Now I don't follow all commodities but I do follow steel and I have for twenty years.... Throw the charts away and look at supply and demand. I've been beaten up pretty good by a few members here over the last two weeks for calling "basic steel" a short right here and saying a 30% correction is due. Most of the guys who disagree with me are looking at the TA, well except Peanuts and he justs likes to disagree with me.lol.... I've predicted steel will fall because of something very simple, my company is currently receiving mill discounts, mill inventories are rising and scrap prices are falling.... AND my companies backlog of work is very flat.... I've seen it all before, many times, short basic steel....

[Tatnic]

Runner.... It's all about supply and demand with a commodity. Now I don't follow all commodities but I do follow steel and I have for twenty years.... Throw the charts away and look at supply and demand. I've predicted steel will fall because of something very simple, my company is currently receiving mill discounts, mill inventories are rising and scrap prices are falling.... AND my companies backlog of work is very flat.... I've seen it all before, many times, short basic steel....

I think you're on to something Lye, maybe a little early, but that can change in a heart beat. I for one appreciate the boots on the ground approach and as you correctly opined, throw out the charts.

[skiracer]

I think you're on to something Lye, maybe a little early, but that can change in a heart beat. I for one appreciate the boots on the ground approach and as you correctly opined, throw out the charts.

Peter Lynch made a fortune making judgements that way but why throw out the charts if they give you another perspective and another edge.
I also agree with Lye about with his take. I bought alot of steel beams and rebar 8 months ago and just purchased alot more with a recent order and it was somewhat cheaper now. Seems to reflect prices going down in steel.

[New-born baby]

It's not the alcohol content in the wine that makes it taste good. The alcohol content in fine wine has always been about the same including that made 2000 years ago. Watering wine down with five parts water (or even one part water) does not make it display extrodinarily fine quality, it dilutes the flavor and makes it taste.... Well watered down!.... Jesus wine was of the finest quality, as one would expect from the Son of God....

Lye,
I would agree that it isn't added water that would make wine taste so good. Watered down Coca-Cola isn't any better tasting, but actually much worse. But I would question your statement that the alcohol content of wine today is equivalent to that of 2000 years ago. Have you any proof you can offer?

But let's say you are correct that alcohol content of today's wine is equivalent to the alcohol content of 2000 years ago. They still "mixed the wine" as both the Scripture and extant literature points out. Therefore the wine, when it was consumed 2000 years ago, was much weaker than the way we consume it today. Comprende, amigo? Here is a quote (and the link from which it came)

"The June 20, 1975, issue of Christianity Today contained an interesting article by Robert H. Stein: "Wine-Drinking In New Testament Times." He observes that the wine used in ancient times was mixed with water in ratios of up to four parts water to one part wine. Mr. Stein explains:

In the Talmud, which contains the oral traditions of Judaism from about 200 BC to AD 200, there are several tractates in which the mixture of water and wine is discussed. One tractate (Shabbath 77a) states that wine that does not carry three parts water is not wine. The normal mixture is said to consist of two parts water to one part wine. In a most important reference (Pesahim 108b) it is stated that the four cups every Jew was to drink during the Passover ritual were to be mixed in a ratio of three parts water to one part wine. From this we can conclude with a fair degree of certainty that the fruit of the vine used at the institution of the Lord's Supper was a mixture of three parts water to one part wine. In another Jewish reference from around 60 BC, we read, "It is harmful to drink wine alone, or again, to drink water alone, while wine mixed with water is sweet and delicious and enhances one's enjoyment" (II Maccabees 15:39)".
Here's the link for that quote: http://www.rbc.org/bible_study/answe...ers/30797.aspx

Here is a quote (and the link it came from) that tells you that wine was the strongest drink in the ancient world, and lower alcoholic content than today's wines.
"Distillation was unknown in the ancient world (and would not be discovered until the early middle ages); wine, therefore, was the strongest drink of the Romans. Falernian was full-bodied (firmissima), with an alcohol content as much as fifteen or sixteen percent (at which point the yeast is killed by the alcohol it produces). A white wine, it was aged for ten to twenty years, until it was the color of amber (Pliny, XXXVII.12)".

Here's the link it came out of: http://penelope.uchicago.edu/~grout/...wine/wine.html

[jiesen]

Lye,
I would agree that it isn't added water that would make wine taste so good. Watered down Coca-Cola isn't any better tasting, but actually much worse. But I would question your statement that the alcohol content of wine today is equivalent to that of 2000 years ago. Have you any proof you can offer?

But let's say you are correct that alcohol content of today's wine is equivalent to the alcohol content of 2000 years ago. They still "mixed the wine" as both the Scripture and extant literature points out. Therefore the wine, when it was consumed 2000 years ago, was much weaker than the way we consume it today. Comprende, amigo? Here is a quote (and the link from which it came)

"The June 20, 1975, issue of Christianity Today contained an interesting article by Robert H. Stein: "Wine-Drinking In New Testament Times." He observes that the wine used in ancient times was mixed with water in ratios of up to four parts water to one part wine. Mr. Stein explains:

In the Talmud, which contains the oral traditions of Judaism from about 200 BC to AD 200, there are several tractates in which the mixture of water and wine is discussed. One tractate (Shabbath 77a) states that wine that does not carry three parts water is not wine. The normal mixture is said to consist of two parts water to one part wine. In a most important reference (Pesahim 108b) it is stated that the four cups every Jew was to drink during the Passover ritual were to be mixed in a ratio of three parts water to one part wine. From this we can conclude with a fair degree of certainty that the fruit of the vine used at the institution of the Lord's Supper was a mixture of three parts water to one part wine. In another Jewish reference from around 60 BC, we read, "It is harmful to drink wine alone, or again, to drink water alone, while wine mixed with water is sweet and delicious and enhances one's enjoyment" (II Maccabees 15:39)".
Here's the link for that quote: http://www.rbc.org/bible_study/answe...ers/30797.aspx

Here is a quote (and the link it came from) that tells you that wine was the strongest drink in the ancient world, and lower alcoholic content than today's wines.
"Distillation was unknown in the ancient world (and would not be discovered until the early middle ages); wine, therefore, was the strongest drink of the Romans. Falernian was full-bodied (firmissima), with an alcohol content as much as fifteen or sixteen percent (at which point the yeast is killed by the alcohol it produces). A white wine, it was aged for ten to twenty years, until it was the color of amber (Pliny, XXXVII.12)".

Here's the link it came out of: http://penelope.uchicago.edu/~grout/encyclopaedia_romana/wine/wine.html

Excellent lesson on wine, NBB! I just bought a bottle of wine myself. It was a fantastic investment.

[billyjoe]

Newborn,
Just got out some labels from grandfather's winery. These were heavily regulated by the state and federal governments. Here are the % alcohol contents at least from 1934-1958.

Sweet Concord---12%
Ohio Concord-----18
American Port----18-20
American White Port-18
Ohio Apple--13
American Apple--20
American Sherry--18-20
Ohio Sherry--13
Ohio Haut Sauterne--12
Ohio Sauterne--13
American Tokay--18
Ohio Blackberry--13
Ives Seedling--13
Cherry Wine--12
Ohio Dry Catawba--12
Ohio Catawba--13
Sweet Catawba--16
American Claret--12
Ohio Grape--13
Ohio Dry Grape--13
Ohio Delaware--13
Hard Cider-- <7

------------billyjoe

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
I would agree that it isn't added water that would make wine taste so good. Watered down Coca-Cola isn't any better tasting, but actually much worse. But I would question your statement that the alcohol content of wine today is equivalent to that of 2000 years ago. Have you any proof you can offer?

But let's say you are correct that alcohol content of today's wine is equivalent to the alcohol content of 2000 years ago. They still "mixed the wine" as both the Scripture and extant literature points out. Therefore the wine, when it was consumed 2000 years ago, was much weaker than the way we consume it today. Comprende, amigo? Here is a quote (and the link from which it came)

"The June 20, 1975, issue of Christianity Today contained an interesting article by Robert H. Stein: "Wine-Drinking In New Testament Times." He observes that the wine used in ancient times was mixed with water in ratios of up to four parts water to one part wine. Mr. Stein explains:

In the Talmud, which contains the oral traditions of Judaism from about 200 BC to AD 200, there are several tractates in which the mixture of water and wine is discussed. One tractate (Shabbath 77a) states that wine that does not carry three parts water is not wine. The normal mixture is said to consist of two parts water to one part wine. In a most important reference (Pesahim 108b) it is stated that the four cups every Jew was to drink during the Passover ritual were to be mixed in a ratio of three parts water to one part wine. From this we can conclude with a fair degree of certainty that the fruit of the vine used at the institution of the Lord's Supper was a mixture of three parts water to one part wine. In another Jewish reference from around 60 BC, we read, "It is harmful to drink wine alone, or again, to drink water alone, while wine mixed with water is sweet and delicious and enhances one's enjoyment" (II Maccabees 15:39)".
Here's the link for that quote: http://www.rbc.org/bible_study/answe...ers/30797.aspx

Here is a quote (and the link it came from) that tells you that wine was the strongest drink in the ancient world, and lower alcoholic content than today's wines.
"Distillation was unknown in the ancient world (and would not be discovered until the early middle ages); wine, therefore, was the strongest drink of the Romans. Falernian was full-bodied (firmissima), with an alcohol content as much as fifteen or sixteen percent (at which point the yeast is killed by the alcohol it produces). A white wine, it was aged for ten to twenty years, until it was the color of amber (Pliny, XXXVII.12)".

Here's the link it came out of: http://penelope.uchicago.edu/~grout/...wine/wine.html

The Maccabbees is not inspired Scripture. The wine in Bible times contained alcohol. PERIOD! It was not forbidden to drink it in the inspired scriptures. PERIOD! Jesus had a problem with all the little rules the self righteous Jewish religious leaders of his day were throwing on the people. Matthew 23:1-37.... So just because the Jews at that time were watering down their wine does not mean it was required by a Christian. While Jesus was of Jewish blood he was a Christian and he was the founder of the Christian faith was he not? He was not under Jewish law was he? He drank alcoholic beverage, did he not?. He produced alcoholic beverage, did he not? It's simple, watered down or not, drinking alcohol is not a sin..... Drunkeness is....PERIOD! So brother NBB, go drink a glass of fine red wine for your stomach's sake.... and be careful not the swallow a camel in the process.

[DSteckler]

Well, I see things haven't changed much in the past few weeks. The market is making a new high and you guys are arguing over wine. LOL!

Lye, wine in Talmudic times was a concentrate (with the exception of Italian wines, which were of a much higher quality). That's why it was watered down; unadulterated, it was undrinkable. Less than a 2:1 mixture of water to wine concentrate wasn't drinkable so the normal dilution varied from 2:1 to 3:1. Italian wines did not need watered down to be drinkable but they were rarely found in the middle east except among the very wealthy, due to the high cost of transport.

BTW, there was no Christianity until after Jesus' death. Many theologians place the formal start around AD 30 - 35.

[Lyehopper]

Well, I see things haven't changed much in the past few weeks. The market is making a new high and you guys are arguing over wine. LOL!

Lye, wine in Talmudic times was a concentrate (with the exception of Italian wines, which were of a much higher quality). That's why it was watered down; unadulterated, it was undrinkable. Less than a 2:1 mixture of water to wine concentrate wasn't drinkable so the normal dilution varied from 2:1 to 3:1. Italian wines did not need watered down to be drinkable but they were rarely found in the middle east except among the very wealthy, due to the high cost of transport.

BTW, there was no Christianity until after Jesus' death. Many theologians place the formal start around AD 30 - 35.

True, Jesus died in 33 (I think) and the formal congregations were formed after his death... BUT.... Christians follow Jesus' example and watered down or not, the wine back then contained alcohol and the moderate drinking of alcohol (not just for medicinal purposes) was not sinful. That's the only point I wanted to make. An interesting view point is found in Isaiah 1:21-23 where those watering down wine are spoken of in a negative light.... go figure?

[spikefader]

Spike,
Thanks for the XOM post. Love those charts and the EW that I am not good at.

I take it you do not like the R/R on XOM. You posted no setup, no targets, etc. Si, como no?
Thanks for everything!

Yer welcome dude.

Do I like the R/R on XOM? Well, I think I'd be able to "manufacture" a good r/r setup on the trade.... I like 68.00 for the attempt, and I'd be waiting for price action to set me up with a good r/r stop location......which no one knows if it'll happen the way I like it.

But for an XOM long at this point, I'd want the corrective back to $68.00. I'd want to be targeting $77.00ish, the ascending triangle projection, which is about +15% from a support entry at 68.00.

For a long at 68.00 with my preferred 10 r/r thing I'd want to risk 1.5% on the play, which would be about a 1 point stop, just under $67.00. If I got taken out, I'd might be a supporter at 66.00 with sub 1% stop (assuming the count was still good).

But if stopped out a second time I'd likely step aside and be satisfied that I'd risked/lost < 2.5% risk to attempt +15% or greater.

Best to ya.

By the way, Vector is bullish and I'm sitting on the sidelines after a quick +210 YM points in 3 long trades this morning. Impressive, this bull is