Breakout Scan

[scifos]

But I am very interested in finding a chart pattern recognition program....much like the one that IBD has. The sites I've seen that charge for these lists of CwH's are pretty darn weak IMO.

Take Cupwatch.com...It takes a pretty vivid imagination to recognize the majority of those that they present for 300 bux a yr. Or GreatStockPicks.com...give me a microscope...'cause I can't see most of the one's they tout.

Have you looked at prophet.net ? its a paid service and I haven't evaluated it. but I saw it was one of the google ads at the bottom of the site.

[IIC]

Have you looked at prophet.net ? its a paid service and I haven't evaluated it. but I saw it was one of the google ads at the bottom of the site.

I've never checked it out...but a lot of people mention that site around the Net...I'll take a look...thx...IIC

[mooddude]

For those interested in the automated breakout scan project, let's discuss it here: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/pattern_scan_project

Questions like: What is the purpose of the project, with which everyone would agree? Who are the members of the team? Tasks, timeframes, etc.

[ParkTwain]

I just sent you a msg at the group. Seems to me you want to identify a SETUP for a breakout (not just a C&H pattern) that has these aspects: (1) price has reached some proximity (% below) to a resistance level, (2) stock's technical indicators are strong and trending stronger, (3) a history of previous big moves up, and (4) if #3 pertains, history of "recent" (timescale could be flexible) price consolidation (i.e., narrowing Bollinger Bands).

Alternatively, you might want to identify a breakout move in REAL TIME: unusually high volume, high % price move, proximity to a resistance level.

The resistance level could be a 52-week high or it could be a true resistance level determined by historical price/volume activity.

Am I thinking along with you here?

[MickyMouse]

Anyone in the group yet? Seems only one member there. A question, why another group over yahoo. Can we keep it here? This is THE best place to exchange ideas. Personally I benefit a lot by hanging around here. Hopfully I might contribute too if we can keep it here.

Your thoughts?

Micky

[IIC]

Anyone in the group yet? Seems only one member there. A question, why another group over yahoo. Can we keep it here? This is THE best place to exchange ideas. Personally I benefit a lot by hanging around here. Hopfully I might contribute too if we can keep it here.

Your thoughts?

Micky

I saw that too...my suggestion is to just start a topic specific to the project...Yahoo Forums s*ck anyway...IIC

[mooddude]

I think the project will be less organized if conducted in a forum like this (still we can try). Yes, we can exchange ideas but this is more of a brainstorming process. So far we have gone as far as discussing who wants to join. But we don't have a goal to achieve. What's next?

[mooddude]

I just sent you a msg at the group. Seems to me you want to identify a SETUP for a breakout (not just a C&H pattern) that has these aspects: (1) price has reached some proximity (% below) to a resistance level, (2) stock's technical indicators are strong and trending stronger, (3) a history of previous big moves up, and (4) if #3 pertains, history of "recent" (timescale could be flexible) price consolidation (i.e., narrowing Bollinger Bands).

Alternatively, you might want to identify a breakout move in REAL TIME: unusually high volume, high % price move, proximity to a resistance level.

The resistance level could be a 52-week high or it could be a true resistance level determined by historical price/volume activity.

Am I thinking along with you here?

Thanks for your message. Yes, "setups for breakouts" is exactly what I am looking for. That is 3-weeks tight setup after a cup-with-handle that has already formed. No's (1) through (4) hold true, but they are not necessarily criteria for finding setups. The idea is to identify cup-with-handle in the past followed by a certain uptrend (e.g. 15%+) and 3-weeks-tight setup.

Of course, I want to search for other types of setups later (good old cup-with-handle . But for now, considering the public nature of the project, it's better to stick to something simple yet potentially usefull to help make investment decisions. Still, the type of a setup to search for is open for discussion.

[ParkTwain]

See my post # 28 in this thread.

I put my list of "imminent breakouts" stocks going into Monday 2/07/05 into a real-time watch list in E*Trade, so I can view the volume bid/ask volume activity (aka tape-reading).

On early Monday I bought the ANSS and BYD breakouts. ANSS faded after Monday but turned back up on Friday, so I am sticking with it a few more days. BYD broke out on both Monday and Thursday (after Wed. evening earnings announcement). I took some BYD profits on Friday and rolled into PTEN's Friday breakout.

I will have to find ways to gauge the mark of a major breakout, like that of ISRG this week. High up volume very early in the trading day is obviously an indication. I also picked up on large bid size to ask size ratio as a predictor of short-term rises during the trading day.

Not surprisingly, a lot of these setups are for uptrending stocks that are going into their earnings announcements.

Another good result of my scan criteria is that most of the losers in this list tended to be small losers (17 stocks at 0% to -2.5% for the week). This week's activity for those wouldn't disqualify them from remaining on the list for the next week.

SYNA's disastrous loss this week was based on material news about future revs (tied to Apple's iPod).


BREAKOUTS this week of stocks on the watch list:

2/07/05
ANSS, BYD

2/08/05
LACO

2/09/05
ISRG, XTO

2/10/05
BYD, LII, OCAS, PTEN

2/11/05
CSG


RESULTS for my watch list (49 stocks) for the market sessions 2/07/05 to 2/11/05, listed by % gain/loss.

Gainers: 25
Losers: 24


0% to 2.5% GAIN:
ANSS, CNX, EDO, EK, FOX, NICE, PQE, PXR, RJF, SHW

2.5% to 5% GAIN:
CSG, DD, JCOM, OCAS, POG, WSO

Greater than 5% GAIN (9 stocks):
BYD (15.65%), CBI (5.5%), CHK (5.38%), CKR (5.37%), ISRG (16.99%), LACO (8.14%), LII (5.47%), PTEN (7.39%), XTO (5.94%)


0% to 2.5% LOSS:
ACF, ARS, BCII, CNL, FINL, FL, HC, ITG, LH, LI, MCD, OIS, PPDI, RBK, SO, SONC, SVC

2.5% to 5% LOSS:
HPC, HRL, IDC, PFG

Greater than 5% LOSS:
PLMD (-9.2%), RSTI (-12.3%), SYNA (-43.08%)